Daily Times

The historic Arab and Persian political and strategic rivalry, and the aggressive Western policy under the US leadersexploiting the local hostilities and playing off the so called moderate states against the radical and nationalist autocrats and creating an atmosphere of competition and fear to the benefit of their military industrial complexes and strengthening their stranglehold on the Gulf hydrocarbon resources has always kept the cauldron of the Middle East at a boiling point. Though the clouds of war have been hovering on the region since the past two years, the latest escalation reflected the complexities of the US-Iranian hostility and the intractability of the situation and pushed the entire region to the edge of explosion. However, sanity prevailed in both the countries.

The US and Iran hostility is deeply seated in ideological, political and strategic antagonism spawning over a long period of over seven decades. The anti-American feelings in the conservative and ideologically motivated Persian nation took birth from – if not earlier than – the overthrow of the democratically elected nationalist government of Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadiq in 1953 by the CIA-sponsored political and military elements and re-coronation of the young Reza Shah Pahlavi. The monarch and his sponsors – the US leaders – became the symbol of the anger and angst of the Iranianspublic and the slogan of ‘death to Shah and America’ became the rallying theme of the ideological revolution that culminated in the overthrow of the Pahlavi dynasty and the ruling elites and brought the clergy into power in 1979.

The subsequent events that mainly included the ransacking of the US diplomatic enclave and taking of 52 US diplomats as hostage, the Iraqi invasion of Iran with the US connivance and the American endeavour to nip the ideological revolution of Iran into bud at the behest of Arab monarchstransformed the US-Iran hostility into a self perpetuating enmity. The Iranian clergy was enthusiastic to export their revolution. Some Arab countries are populated by majority Shias as in Bahrain, Iraq and Syria and in some other states from Saudi Arabia to tiny Arab Emirates Shias constitute 15% of their populations. The Shias irrespective of their countries look up to Iran as their spiritual center. Iran too, particularly after the revolution, has behaved as the custodian of the Shiaideology all over the Muslim world. This ideological affinity among Shia populations irrespective of borders created an acute sense of insecurity in the Gulf States forcing them to refurbish their security arrangements with the major Western countries.

After the easing of the economic sanctions on the country as a result of the Nuclear Deal signed in May 2015, Iran’s funding of its overseas proxy outfits is estimated at $10 billion. These outfits as reported by the international media have over 30,000 militants – recruited, trained, armed and commanded under the generic title of Al-Quds by General Qassem Sulaimani. These trained militants posed a threat to the US strategic interests and the security of its Arab allies and Israel. Quite lately, General Qassem had emerged as the symbol of the Iranian power in the region. The Iranian leadership and the General himself knew the growing threats to his life but the fear of death never weakened his resolve to defeat his nation’s foes in the ongoing contest for regional domination. He was really living the life of a ‘living martyr’ as affectionately called by the country’s Supreme leader.

The wisdom prevailed and the Iranian leadership shunned all the temptations for any sentimental decision to come in the mad elephant’s way by causing a heavy loss of life to the US

The assassination of the General at the orders of President Donald Trump has thrown the region into a renewed antagonism. The elimination of Sulaimani would not impact the Iranian influence in the Arab countries or deter its proxy militant outfits from their avowed mission in the Middle East. The event has already closed the fissures in the Iranian society and pushed the nation to stand solidly behind the Iranian regime which, days before this tragic event, was facing protests for economic hardships. Rather, the renewed tension would be harming more the US economic and strategic interests than those of Iran. The US business community and investors would have to wait a long time to find the security conditions acquiescent to return to the Middle East.

The Iranian leadership has been well calculated in this entire episode. The sentiments were running high; the anger and anguish within the nation was enormous; the consequences of the direct war with US were apparently disastrous. The wisdom prevailed and the Iranian leadership shunned all the temptations for any sentimental decision to come in the mad elephant’s way by causing a heavy loss of life to the US. They decided for calibrated strikes on the US bases in Iraq responding to the cry of their nation for revenge and also displaying their defiance and resolve of striking the enemy anywhere in the region, followed by signals to stand down. The US leader also reciprocated positively ruling out further military reprisals against Iran. These pronouncements have ameliorated the hyperbolic level of trepidations in the region.

However, President Donald Trump’s pronouncement of imposing further economic sanctions on Iran is still a cause of grave concern to the countries of the region and the Western countries dependent on the hydrocarbon resources of the Middle East. The current economic sanctions have reduced the Iranian oil exports from 2.5 million barrels to a quarter of million barrels a day. The nation is already facing a precarious economic situation with food and medicines in short supply. The economic sanctions would keep the cauldron boiling without hopes for de-escalation and a negotiated resolution. The trust-deficit between the present leadership in both countries seems to be unbridgeable.

The Iranians would never trust Donald Trump. So, the region would remain precariously primed for any disaster as the current antagonism has spilt oil all over the region and it needs a small spark to burst into flames. Donald Trump is well capable of igniting this fire if not deterred by fears of losing the coming US Presidential elections.

The writer was a member of the Foreign Service of Pakistan and he has authored two books