CPEC — collective wisdom and a new strategy

Author: Sikandar Noorani

American concerns about Chinese economic expansion are getting strengthened with every passing day. The Belt and Road initiative (BRI) is gradually paving way for Chinese dragon’s much predictable advance to Central Asian Republics, South East Asia, Middle East, Africa and Europe. An arrogant superpower like the US has all the reasons to feel challenged with this persistent advance of Chinese dragon in all forbidden areas. Watching a previously ‘obedient’ally, Pakistan, riding on the back of the Chinese dragon, in a friendly mode, on the path of economic stability is adding more fuel to the fire of US’anxiety. Arrogance has its own ways.

It is not hard to understand why a few days agoAlice Wells painted CPEC black for Pakistan. Obviously, objectives being pursued by China, alongwith its trusted ally Pakistan, bring both states in sharp conflict with the US at regional as well as the global chessboard. How one can keep the Russian factor out of sight while taking stock of regional situation from the American as well as the Pakistani perspective? What shapes up in Afghanistan in the near future amid the US-Taliban dialogue would definitely impact the region on many accounts, and Pakistan undeniably, remains a major stakeholder in this complex affair.

Washington would probably like Islamabad to be on her beck and call as a weak dependent pawn. It is, more than ever, a troubling time for Pakistan. Making hard choices, between China and the US, with highlyunstable internal and hostile external fronts, is enough of a problem to keep any decision maker uncomfortable in Islamabad. Although the hard choice was made four years ago by formally joining hands with China, executing the most ambitious economic corridor project has proved much harder for the inefficient and unpreparedbureaucracy.

After keeping most of the eggs in Chinese basket, sitting unprepared and unmoved in Islamabad is nothing but criminal negligence. While Islamabad is lagging behind in giving optimum output, Beijing has successfully accomplished its part as evident from the inauguration of an airport and a powerhouse at Gwadar.Negotiations about financing of the ML-1 project are also in progress. With such positive acceleration on its part, Beijing has all the reasons to feel concerned about what Islamabad has not been able todo so far.

Almost five years ago, at the inaugural phase of CPEC, agenerous demand for approximately 0.8 million semi-trained personnel, familiar with robotics and Chinese language, was extended by China. A country like Pakistan, suffering from acute unemployment and a rapidly bulging youth ratio in population, paid no heed to the idea. Progress on the Special Economic Zones is alarmingly slow as no worthwhile administrative infrastructure and vocational training centres have yet been put in place. With lack of requisite manpower and total absence of basic amenities like water, electricity, residential accommodation and gas how would Chinese industrial setups be functional and how the transfer of technology would benefit the common masses on ground?

Swift mid-course correction and a ruthless introspection is the only viable option left with the PTI regime

Despite seriously suffering from lack of financial resources, the low interest loan, amounting to one billion dollars, with an extended one-year period rescheduled by the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, could not be consumed in required heads by the shoddy bureaucracy.The spirit of the Free Trade Agreement got sufficiently ruined as no significant work has so far been done to facilitate Chinese investors in terms of pointing out importable goods and guidance about local customers for their products. Impediments caused by inefficient governmental supervision and the visionless approach of people sitting on the helm of affairs have disappointed and disturbed China to a great extant.

Swift mid-course correction and a ruthless introspection is the only viable option left with the PTI regime, which has already wasted great energies in fighting absurd political battles with the opposition. Matters related to CPEC must be dealt swiftly by doing away with the traditional bureaucratic barriers. No outsider, may it be China or the US, would solve our internal issues. A rusty mindset and negative bureaucratic hurdles must not be allowed to deprive Pakistan of its economic revival. An introspection on CPEC should precisely lay focus on unearthing any deliberate systematic detrimental moves by the black sheepcamouflaged in the ranks and files of bureaucracy or any other state institution.

CPEC being an important part of the BRI is in the crosshairs of an irritated and arrogant sole superpower . It is not a matter thatwould settle in a simple way. Economic kneeling of a crippled Pakistan would surely halt or delay the advance of the Chinese dragon in Eurasian territories, once called the ‘Poachers’ Paradise’ by George Friedman. The unpredictable Afghanistan infected with anti-Pakistan proxies, the extraordinary unrest in the Indian-occupied Kashmir afterthe revocation of Article 370, and an aggressive India under an extremist Hindutva driven ideology, once put together, can turn the situation more complex for decision makers in Islamabad.

It is only superior intellect that can lead us to formulate a strategy compatible enough to avert the undesired consequences. Then comes in the part of diplomacy, whichif pursued smartly, may take Pakistan out of a dark pit. Pakistan should aim at reducing the regional concerns of the US by diplomatically engaging China and Russia. Any form of a regional clash, either at the borders or in the neighborhood, would damage Pakistan manifold. New Delhi can also be brought on the table through indirect diplomatic maneuvering.

As the saying goes, “The essence of strategy is choosing what not to do.” Whatever the case may be, our strategy should revolve around avoiding or averting an armed clash or an outbreak of war. Collective wisdom must be applied, both by the ruling and the opposition benches, in parliament to list the dos and don’ts’ of strategy. There is a proverb, “Rowing harder doesn’t help if the boat is headed in the wrong direction.” Instead of displaying verbosity about CPEC, all stakeholders should come forward with a fine display of collective wisdom to set a good course correction.

The writer is a freelance columnist

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