Where will the Afghan peace process lead?

Author: Muhammad Waqar Aslam

There has been a disguise from the US over the growing relationship of Pakistan with significant states like Beijing because it seems hazardous. The US got riled over the perfervid camaraderie shown by Beijing to Moscow overture. They remain rivals but Richard Nixon’s diplomacy got some ties established there. As it was the prophecy of Samuel Huntington about the civilisation that Chinese and Muslims will become a threat to western powers, it has been considered alarming.

These days, the US is helpless. Hands of the American administration are tied with only a few ostensible outposts for their on-ground armed personnel. With the rise of Beijing as the epitome of the economic accelerator, the US is anxious about its dominant status. The status quo will bring the economy on boon and ammunition rule will perish. American convicted traitor, Chelsea Manning, too spoke openly to media that it is time to focus on superseding economically than flexing muscles. Pakistan is continuously endeavouring to bring the dialogue arena steady and getting the negotiations done so that peace can prevail and America’s perturbation comes to an end from this side.

Pakistan’s role in this process has been applauded by Zalmay Khalilzad. The dialogue has been held at Doha and is facilitated by Pakistan for goodwill and stability in the area. China also wants to stabilise infrastructure in the area for its ease for which there has to be peace. Over 580,000 Pakistanis, including 9,000 security personnel, have been killed in the war on terror. Yet, the end of militancy is nowhere in sight and a sense of insecurity and resentment has gripped the entire citizenry, which is more pronounced in the areas where terrorist activities, military operations and drones are active.

As the war on terror is going to enter its 19th year in Afghanistan, it is distressing to see the disastrous consequences of it not just manifested in the condition of Afghanistan today, but also most egregiously in neighboring Pakistan, which took up the challenge of joining the war as a key non-NATO ally of the US. The tragedy comes into sharp relief when one realises that the goalpost, repeatedly shifting in the face of insurmountable odds, could not even be uniformly agreed upon, let alone be reached. The top operatives have not left the hydra-headed Al-Qaeda rudderless. If its threat is petering out, as the US would have the world believe, it has spawned groups, collectively termed for the sake of convenience the Taliban, to continue the resistance struggle and slowly but inexorably bleed the foreign forces. The reason behind the stability of the Taliban in Afghanistan is that their government and the NDS both respect their tribal leaders. The opinion of the Taliban’s tribal heads is replete and cannot be challenged by any entity.

The legacy they leave behind is neither a democratic dispensation nor peace. The way minority ethnic groups have been put in place of authority, it is not wide of the mark to predict for the beleaguered country to revert to the post-Soviet days of chaos as soon as the NATO troops are out. The Afghan security forces, on which the US is relying on keeping terrorism at bay and maintaining peace, are turning their guns at the soldiers training them. They are suffering multiple times as many casualties in districts handed over to them for control as compared to NATO when it held the charge. To rebuild Afghanistan’s shattered socio-economic and political fabric is a Herculean task. The US is also badly hurt, with human and material losses in combat followed closely by stress-related suicides in the fighting cadres.

Afghan peace talks would have started much earlier if India had not used its creepy tactics against this process

Five to seven times are the estimated figures of those crippled for life, living on handouts from the government. The economy is under pressure of trillions of dollars of debt and the lowering of living standards. A growing number of citizens are turning against the war. In Britain also, there were street protests the day before against its participation in the war. The NATO is dismayed at the outcome, both in terms of its failure to stamp out the shadowy but dogged resistance and the loss of men, of material and the face. And as the superpower got entangled in its vengeful war, rival powers like China found the going good for their rise to prominence, putting into question Washington’s dream of strategic spread across the Central Asian Republics.

Pakistan will maintain its neutrality in the internal affairs of Afghanistan. Second, Pakistan will also be able to convince the Afghan government to increase the checkpoints along the Pak-Afghan border to monitor strictly the inflow and outflow of migrants to ensure miscreants should not infiltrate into the Pakistani soil or Afghanistan and launch offensive terrorist attacks. Thirdly, Pakistan will not go alone. That will improve Pakistan’s image in Afghanistan and internationally as Pakistan does not extend support to any specific faction or Pakistan has no favourites, particularly the Afghan Taliban. Nevertheless, the Taliban had also never served Pakistan’s strategic interests rather they always defied Pakistan like on the issue of the extraditing of OBL in 2011 to the US. Furthermore, the Afghan government’s tilt towards Pakistan vis-à-vis India is also a clear manifestation that if their government could serve Pakistan’s vital interests, why should Pakistan prefer the Afghan Taliban over a democratically elected government. As the election results are yet to be announced in Afghanistan, Taliban were released from jails to reach the talk’s venue (Doha), so, in result, they released the US and Australian hostages. This means ice is melting the keen objectivity for the Taliban. They are talking directly to the main stakeholder; not using any puppet in this regard.

India has a linchpin connection sabotaging the peace process or diverting attention by continuously maligning Pakistan. Although after making road and dam for its interests in Afghanistan, it could not revamp the perception of its viciousness and the world powers are well aware of its agenda. These peace talks would have started much earlier if India had not used its creepy tactics against this process. Trump exhibited reluctance earlier but now he is implying the ideology that troops shall not reside abroad as the crises and challenges are roaring but when the same is advised by Democrats and his advisors, he refused to do so. The Afghan peace process will be entering its eighth round and leading the new door; opening ventures to the ginormous felicity in the region.

The writer is an analyst of International Relations who knows the actual gimmicks behind International politics

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