Daily Times

India’s power politics to grab the princely state of Jammu and Kashmir started right from August 1947 when Pakistan and India became independent states through the partition of the British India.

According to the partition formula, 567 princely states had to join Pakistan or India based on the will of their people and their contiguity with either country. While Raja Hari Singh, the ruler of Jammu and Kashmir, wanted to keep the state as independent, the Muslim majority population started protesting that the state should join Pakistan.

To illegally occupy Jammu and Kashmir, India sent its military to the state on October 27, 1947, after getting an unlawful accession instrument signed by Hari Singh, under duress, against the will of the people of the state. India’s military occupied a major part of the state till their advance was checked by the Pakistani forces. Then started the 1947-48 war over Kashmir.

India took the Kashmir dispute to the UN Security Council (UNSC) in 1948. The UNSC passed resolutions in 1948-49 asking both the countries to stop the war, and announcing that a plebiscite would be held under UNSC’s supervision to determine whether the Muslim majority population of Jammu and Kashmir wanted the state to join Pakistan or India. Despite accepting the UNSC resolutions, by using delaying tactics India denied holding of the plebiscite to date. Therefore, since October 1947, the forces of both the countries have been deployed in Kashmir facing each other.

Both the countries also fought a war over Jammu and Kashmir in 1965. India’s military aggression in the then East Pakistan in November-December 1971, in support of the separatist elements there and dismemberment of Pakistan, were also meant to annex Jammu and Kashmir by weakening Pakistan.

Since 1987, when the people of Jammu and Kashmir launched their peaceful freedom struggle to get their right to self-determination, India has used about 700,000 security forces to suppress the freedom struggle, and they have committed rampant human rights violations and atrocities on the Kashmiris. Still, the Kashmiris have remained steadfast in their peaceful struggle. In May 1998, India carried out nuclear explosions, and Pakistan responded with its own nuclear explosions. Both the countries became nuclear powers.

On August 5, 2019, the Modi government played major power politics with respect to the Indian-occupied Kashmir. Modi changed the situation in Jammu and Kashmir unilaterally by abrogating Articles 35A and 370 of India’s Constitution, ending its special autonomous status, and dividing the state into two union territories, named as Jammu and Kashmir and Laddakh. While doing that, India also declared that Jammu and Kashmir was its internal matter.

India’s unilateral brutal action in Kashmir and its statement that Kashmir is its internal issue is in clear violation of the UNSC resolutions, accepted by India, which give the Kashmiris their right to self-determination, the Simla Agreement (1972) and the Lahore Declaration (1999), signed by India and Pakistan. All of them state that all issues, including the Kashmir dispute, will be resolved bilaterally between Pakistan and India, as per the UN Charter, and pending their resolution no country will unilaterally change the situation on ground.

To suppress Kashmiris’ expected reaction, the Muslim majority Kashmir valley has been kept under curfew with the telephone and internet services closed for the last 112 days. The Indian security forces have arrested or jailed about 13,000 young men, and are carrying out Kashmiris’ genocide, all of which is being highlighted by world’s leading media houses. Despite their sufferings, Kashmiris are protesting and asking for their right to self-determination.

Being a party to the Jammu and Kashmir dispute as per the UNSC resolutions, the Simla Agreement and the Lahore Declaration, Pakistan severely protested India’s unilateral action in Kashmir, carried out an intense diplomatic process to get the world’s support, and referred the matter to the UNSC. Despite that, India exploited its strategic and commercial relations with the major powers to convince the world leaders that Jammu and Kashmir was its internal issue. A UNSC meeting was held and the Kashmir issue was discussed, as it has been on the UNSC agenda since 1948.

India continues to use its diplomacy and influence to convince the world powers to support its stance on Kashmir

Although the UNSC members could not come up with a consensual resolution, the leaders of the US, China, Russia, UK, France and other important countries did not agree with India that Jammu and Kashmir was its internal issue. President Donald Trump’s repeated mediation offers to resolve the Kashmir dispute, the UNSC resolutions of 1948-49, the Simla Agreement of 1972 and the Lahore Declaration of 1999 all negate that Kashmir is India’s internal issue.

The above-mentioned countries have asked India to lift the restrictions in Kashmir, free the arrested persons, end the genocide of Kashmiris and resolve the Kashmir dispute through a dialogue with Pakistan. This has happened because the US, UK, France and Russia have realised that apart from India, Pakistan is also equally strategically important for peace in Afghanistan, Central Asia and the Middle East.

China, Turkey and Malaysia very strongly supported Pakistan’s stance on Kashmir, and condemned India’s unilateral action there, as Kashmir is not India’s internal issue. That India should lift the restrictions in the Kashmir valley, end the genocide there, and resolve the dispute through a dialogue with Pakistan, in the light of the UNSC resolutions. The OIC has also strongly supported Pakistan’s position on Kashmir.

However, India has not yet lifted the curfew and communication restrictions in Kashmir, and its forces are still committing excesses. As a consequence, Kashmiris are now completely alienated from India, and after lifting of the curfew, their freedom struggle will likely turn into a civil disobedience movement.

India continues to use its diplomacy and influence to convince the world powers to support its stance on Kashmir. With Turkey and Malaysia, India is behaving like a hegemonic power. According to The Hindu, Modi’s Turkey visit has been put off, and Malaysia has been threatened that India will stop importing its palm oil if it does not change its stance on Kashmir in India’s favour.

Due to Pakistan’s effective diplomacy, it is expected that soon the OIC and Muslim countries will adopt a unified policy to support Pakistan’s stance on Kashmir, and that India should resolve the dispute through a dialogue with Pakistan in the light of the UNSC resolutions. Muslim countries will also pressurise India to lift the restrictions and end the genocide of the Kashmiris.

The above-given points make it very clear that Kashmiris will soon turn their freedom struggle into a civil disobedience movement. Kashmir is not India’s internal matter, and Pakistan is firm about supporting Kashmiris. The world powers and Muslim and other important countries will continue to ask India to lift the restrictions in Kashmir and resolve the dispute by holding a dialogue with Pakistan, or by accepting foreign mediation, in the light of the UNSC resolutions. President Trump’s mediation offer still stands.

But if India continues to deny a dialogue with Pakistan on Kashmir, if it continues with its unilateral actions and the genocide, and if the world leaders keep hesitating to pressurise India to start a dialogue with Pakistan on Kashmir or accept foreign mediation, tensions between Pakistan and India may lead to a war between these two nuclear powers. India’s efforts to grab Kashmir by force will plunge it into a nuclear war with Pakistan.

In view of the above-mentioned evolving scenario, it appears that India’s power politics to grab Jammu and Kashmir permanently will ultimately fail, and it will have to either resolve the Kashmir dispute through a dialogue with Pakistan in the light of the UNSC resolutions, or through a foreign mediation. Failing that, India will risk a nuclear confrontation with Pakistan, and its dreams of becoming a major world power and annexing Kashmir will vanish forever.

The writer is a former Research Fellow of the Islamabad Policy Research Institute, Islamabad, and Senior Research Fellow of Strategic Vision Institute, Islamabad