Daily Times

The lead tank of the column rumbles past the stunned onlookers. German-made Leopard 2 with Turkish military insignia rolls across from the border of Turkey. On every inch of spin at the track the earth jolts with terror. Accompanying them are armoured personal carriers, approaching the town just across the border. No less terror could be witnessed when looking up in the skies where F-16 fighters are swooping down, bombing the targets in the town. The depression that has enshrouded the town since the launch of the offensive is a gehenna from which the natives shall never be released. This marked the entry of another regional military power in an agonizingly complex, ever-changing way in an already militarily saturated Syrian-civil war.

Two weeks ago, President Tayyip Erdogan addressed the UN General Assembly in which he unveiled the map of the proposed ‘safe zone’ that was marked with a red line. The safe zone is supposed to serve two-fold purposes of President Erdogan who is striving to play a major role in the final solution of Syria. The first and the most important one is the rise of the Kurdish militia at the Turkish-Syrian Border that must also be dealt on social, political and economic fronts. President Erdogan’s popularity was at its worst since he gained power. Erdogan has come a long way since he first took office and curtailed military’s ability to influence politics, after which he tried his best to put some religious flavour in the secular Turkey. Finally, he struck with an iron hand at the political and social elements that had the potential of threatening his rule, and he secured the position of the strong man of Turkey. However, this status came at a cost.

Attacking Syria could help his popularity graph goup. He had already lost the local elections and was weakened in major cities. The economic situation was hardly satisfactory. His move against Kurds would divert the attention from all domestic issues, as the Kurdish problem is considered very sensitive in his country. Turkey desired to change the demography of the Kurdish region in Syria by settling non-Kurdish Arab refugees on the Syrian side of the Turkish-Syrian border. Turkey was ready for the Kurdish ethnic cleansing as some analysts pronounced it so. It is asking for $10 billion to settle the Arab refugees in the Kurdish areas bordering Turkey. This amount may serve Turkey in many ways. It would not only help the Turkish economy but shall also stop Turkey from taking control of its southern border.

It is the third Turkish military incursion into the Syrian territory. Erdogan was pursuing this opportunity since last December when President Donald Trump suddenly announced his intentions to withdraw the ground troops. President Erdogan planned an offensive within the Syrian territory. Turkey had been in talks with the US to remove the PKK group and its Syrian affiliate, the People’s Protection Units (YPG), from northeastern Syria, and establish a safe zone where Syrian refugees may be securely rehabilitated. During this period, the United States had to take concrete steps toward creating a safe zone, removing terrorists from the area and overseeing the destruction of fortifications as well as conduct joint patrols with Turkey and set up checkpoints. Despite that the US was unable, to some degree, comply with the timeline, joint air and land patrols succeeded; some of the Kurds’ fortifications were dismantled by the SDF in Tel Abyad and Ras al-Ain. Yet Turks were unhappy because the agreement had not been fully implemented: US officials refused to distance them from the YPG.

Turkey thought that the US had failed to meet its expectations, and therefore, it took unilateral steps in the area east of the Euphrates. Turkey also expected from the European Union that they would support its plan. However, in a meeting with the interior ministers of Germany and France, the Turkish interior minister stressed that Turkey could not admit any more refugees, and EU’s failure to support the safe zone plan would result in an escalation of the migration crisis in Europe.

Turkey is a very important NATO member whose 60 percent of military hardware is of US and Western Europe

On October 6, Trump ordered the withdrawal of US troops from a part of Syrian-Turkish border after a telephonic talk with Erdogan. That move was a surprise not only for SDF, Syrian government, Russians and US Congress but also for the decision makers of the State Department at Pentagon. The order serves as a green light for Turkey to move in.

On October 9, Turkey moved in and announced the launch of operation ‘Peace Spring’ with the aim of capturing the towns of Tel Abyad and Ras al-Ain, thus stipulating the withdrawal of YPG from nearly all remaining areas of the border up to a depth of 32 kilometres.

Kurds are scattered in the region. There is no exact figure of the Kurdish population as none of the countries that house the Kurdish people have done an ethnic census. Estimates vary between 20 to 40 million. The most credible estimates number 15 million in Turkey and 7-8 million in Iran. In Iraq, the semi-autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) evaluates the number of inhabitants to 5.3 million. There would be 1-2 million Kurds in Syria. In northeastern Syria Kurds were concentrated into two pockets.

Kurds came to prominence after ISIS began to expand its territory in the Kurdish populated area. There was no regional force on ground that could challenge ISIS. Kurds were never the part of the Syrian civil war until ISIS began increasing its control over the Kurdish populated area. The Battle of Kobne proved to be a turning point when the Kurds pushed ISIS back with the help of US-led air operations. The west thus found a parallel for ISIS in the shape of YPG (Kurdish militia) despite Turks’ frantic protest. Then onwards, coordination and cooperation between the US and YGP began to improve in Syria as well as in Iraq. Gradually, the Kurdish militia was named as the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to try to make it acceptable for Turkey. With almost 2,000 US troops on ground and immense air power coupled with growingly skilled Kurdish forces, ISIS was deprived of its land holding in Syria, and victory was declared.

President Trump’s order of the withdrawal of US troops from the Syria-Turkish border was not only seen as a go-ahead for turkey to move in but it also created an opportunity for President Vladimir Putin to register himself as the main power broker in the region. When US allies in the region, the Saudis and the Israelis, were absorbing the shock of Trump’s move, Putin was already in the midst of dialogue with Turkey and the SDF. The latter reached an agreement with Bashar al-Assad, brooked by Russia, according to which the Syrian Arab Army moved into areas previously held by the SDF for the first time since 2012.Putin signed a separate agreement with Erdogan in Sochi.

According to this agreement, the area between Tel Abyad and Ras al-Ain, 120 kilometres in length and 32 kilometres wide, was declared as a safe zone as desired by Erdogan. Russia managed to persuade the SDF to clear the area; the rest of the border was supposed to be patrolled by the Turkish and Russian military. As a result of all that, the greatest winner is President Assad, along with Russia, to whom many of the regional powers are looking up to as the most reliable superpower. Neither of the main players in the war was pleased as the Kurds grew stronger and their influence increased, especially Iran, against which the YPG was an instrument in the hands of Israel and the US. The Assad regime is never willing to accept the Kurdish authority to the extent where they announce an autonomous or a semi-autonomous Kurd rule. Russians see Kurds as another complicated problem that they have to solve for Assad as they are the main backers of the regime.

President Erdogan is increasingly finding himself walking on a delicate path. Turkey isa very important NATO member whose 60 percent of military hardware is of US and Western Europe. In the last few years, Erdogan has developed friendly relations with Putin’s Russia, culminating in the procurement of S-400 air defence system. Negotiations are underway for the transfer of technology of S-400 and purchase of SU-35 fighter jets. It is difficult to imagine how Turkey will manage to balance between NATO and Russia.

Has this Turkish aggression served anyone? For how long will Turkey sustain its position of the occupation of the Syrian territory? Would this safe zone serve the foreign policy of Turkey? It might appear a win-win situation for Turkey, but history reiterates differently for the fore mentioned questions. It might look good for the Turkish nation but the tensile strength may not act as strong as it appears; it may break soon looking at the economic condition of Turkey. It has never served internationally-the Bosnian safe zone, Rwanda safe zones, massacre of Houthis, Sri Lankan bombardment of Tamils. The world is a witness that neither aggression nor brutality works for long.

The writer is a freelancer