Daily Times

In his recent press briefing (November, 20), Minister for Energy, Omar Ayub Khan, reiterated his resolve to ramp up the renewable generating capacity in the national grid to 8,000 MW by 2025 and 20,000 MW by 2030 (in line with the government’s previously announced goal of 20 per cent by 2025 and 30 per cent by 2030). He also pointed out that the above targets will entail an investment of over USD 40 billion by 2030. He was confident it would be forthcoming in due course as many potential investors had already expressed their keen interest in developing renewable power generation in Pakistan.

While the government’s determination to transform the power sector in Pakistan on more secure and sustainable lines is indeed commendable, there are a few caveats that the government should be aware of and, which, if not handled properly in time, can seriously undermine its efforts to green the power grid. The major ones include developing of the requisite transmission and distribution (T&D) infrastructure, technical and institutional capacity, and cost-reflective tariff schemes that must go hand-in-hand with the above efforts to reap the full benefits that renewable power generation can provide to our economy and people.

It was good to hear the Minister speak of renewable capacity targets in concrete (megawatt) terms, and not in terms of penetration levels of 20 per cent and 30 per cent, which were somewhat ambiguous, if not misleading. Defining the renewable generation targets or penetration levels as a proportion of peak demand for a power system is generally preferred over defining them as a proportion of future installed capacity. It provides not only a more objective and concrete measure of their future contribution to the system but also helps in assessing their actual role in reliably serving the continuously varying demand of the electricity consumers.

Renewable energy resource-rich sites are generally located far away from the major load centres in most countries. This will be the most likely situation in Pakistan too. Cost-effective and efficient renewable power generation at these sites will obviously require substantial capital outlays to transmit and deliver the electricity produced from these plants to existing load centres. Substantial efforts, therefore, will be required to upgrade the existing T&D networks or build new ones to connect these remotely-located power plants (parks) to the main grid. This will require huge funding, substantial technical and project management capability, and a considerable amount of time-three to five years, if one goes by the typical lead times for such system developments.

A must-do action for our government is to pursue tariff reforms in the country side-by-side with the scaling up of renewables in the power grid

Renewables pose unique challenges to power system planners as well as operators. Unlike the conventional power generation options which rely on fuel stocks, renewables plants depend on natural energy flows (sun’s radiation, wind, biomass, geothermal, waves and tides, etc.). Electricity produced from these plants may be abundant in nature but is also highly unpredictable as well as variable, and under little control of the system operator. At low penetration levels in the grid (below five or six per cent), system operators often treat renewable electricity as negative demand. After subtracting it from the consumer demand, they deal with the remaining demand (though it becomes slightly more erratic afterwards) as they have been doing it for decades, by serving it through conventional plants. However, when the share of renewables in the grid grows beyond a system-specific limit, their presence becomes more taxing for the remaining plants that have to cover renewables’ intermittency and variability, obviously at a significant technical and financial cost.

High-share of renewable power generation schemes in Pakistan will also have these implications. Consequently, considerable effort will be required to develop technical capability (information and communication systems, weather forecasting systems, flexibility in conventional plants, and new scheduling and dispatch tools) and institutional capacity (operational planning techniques and operators education and training) in the country to blend these new schemes in the generation portfolio seamlessly and effectively manage the new demands these plants will impose on the system.

Renewable energy technologies (solar and wind), by their very nature, are mostly small scale and dispersed. Their large-scale uptake can kick-start local industrial development and employment generation in the country that will help a great deal in accomplishing the goal of energy self-reliance for the country. It’s good and pleasant news that the government is not only aware of this aspect but also intends to make aggressive efforts to accelerate this process. Since this requires considerable time to materialise, we hope to see some concrete initiatives in this regard from the government in the near future.

The Minister expects the addition of renewables in the electricity grid will contribute to reducing the electricity tariffs in the country. This is really good news for electricity consumers in the country who are miserably struggling at present to cope with the continuously rising price of this essential utility service. However, caution will be required in making unrealistic promises. The costs of renewable generation arguably have declined substantially in the recent past, making it competitive with conventional options at some specific sites and in niche applications, it may not be so when the additional costs discussed above are also factored into the equation.

A must-do action for our government is to pursue tariff reforms in the country side-by-side with the scaling up of renewables in the power grid. Unlike the past, electricity consumers are no longer at the mercy of the national grid. A variety of renewable electricity generation systems, storage technologies, and demand-side management options have unlocked new opportunities for them to either reduce their dependence on the grid or completely abandon it. Future electricity tariffs in the country must be designed with the above developments in mind. At a minimum, these tariffs must reflect the spatial and temporal costs a specific consumer imposes on the grid and should charge him accordingly.

Consumers who continue to remain tied with the grid but meet a larger part of their electricity needs through behind-the-meter photovoltaic installations are in fact free-riders whose link with the grid is being cross-subsidised by the remaining consumers. If appropriate remedial steps are not taken by the government to deal with this critical issue, we might see more and more consumers deserting the grid in the future, thus making the vicious circle even more vicious.

As stated earlier, the government’s resolve to green the power grid in the country is a laudable effort. The need is not to curtail it down but to foresee the additional challenges it will pose to the system and move swiftly to have the enabling T&D infrastructure, technical and institutional capacity, and cost-reflective tariff schemes ready to complement the fast-track uptake of renewable power generation technologies in the country. If the government is already aware of these challenges and is making appropriate efforts to have the requisite infrastructure and facilities in place along with the new renewable plants, it’s indeed good. If not, it’s now the most appropriate time for the government to act.

The writer is a freelance consultant, specialising in sustainable energy and power system planning and development