Daily Times

Earlier in February, the United States of America and Poland co-hosted a Ministerial to Promote a Future of Peace and Security in the Middle East, or ‘Warsaw Process’. Delegations from more than 60 countries including NATO, EU, Israel and the GCC participated in the deliberations.

Notably, while India sent its representative to the process, Pakistan and Russia both refrained from sending any wrong signals to Tehran. The EU’s senior leadership was missing and Turkey sent an Ambassador for mere formalities. Nothing concrete could evolve from this ministerial except the announcement to a form a ‘Middle East Strategic Study Group’.

Iran claims these initiatives indicate desperation by the US to forge a new alliance against it with the support of like-minded leaders in Israel and the GCC. US President Donald Trump has already floated the idea to establish an ‘Arab NATO’ which can keep tabs on increased Iranian assertiveness in the Middle Eastern mainland and Strait of Hormuz, which is at best a radical dream too good to be true. Let us also not forget that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is on his way out after the recent elections and until the appointment of any confirmed replacement is finalised, Israel’s security establishment will remain in wait-and-watch mode.

There is a difference within GCC states as well on how to twist Iran’s arm. While the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Bahrain have undisputed angst against Iran, the divergent attitudes of Qatar and Oman cannot be ignored altogether. More so, despite India being a participant, it has large stakes in Iran viz the Chabahar port project which will likely not be sacrificed at the altar of Washington’s ego. In fact, New Delhi has placed itself in a tough spot because Moscow, its strategic ally and fellow stakeholder in Chabahar, expressed discontent with the Warsaw Process during its initial announcement.

Pakistan’s national leadership has exhibited their unanimous and firm resolve to maintain neutrality in the midst of rising tensions between Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Iran. Efforts toward mediation were initiated during former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and General Raheel Sharif’s tenure and are being carried forward by the incumbent civil-military combine. Despite Pakistan’s peace overtures, Iran has shown only a certain degree of enthusiasm whereas the Saudi Foreign Minister, without directly naming Pakistan, dismissed the potency of these efforts altogether.

The lack of seriousness accorded to Pakistan’s gestures result from inconsistent and myopic foreign policy approaches toward the Middle East. For example, Islamabad had emphatically rejected international efforts to oust the Assad regime in Syria and urged respect for its sovereignty whereas Turkey’s unilateral incursion into Syria was given outright support by Prime Minister Khan without taking the parliament into prior confidence. Furthermore, while Islamabad continues its unwavering support for Palestine, there is no hue and cry among the theocratic establishments in Pakistan about GCC states’ willingness to cooperate with Israel against a regional country. Representatives of Riyadh and Abu Dhabi have no qualms about being seen standing next to the leader of a country established in the name of Zion. At the end of the day, ruthless pragmatism prevails while Pakistan alone remains internally confused, paradoxical and pacifist.

China and Russia, both termed as revisionist powers, are observing this fiasco with a pinch of humour. The US is struggling to setup a new theatre in the Indo-Pacific and also increase troop deployments in the Middle East to maintain its relevancy but it has long lost

China and Russia, both termed as revisionist powers, are observing this fiasco with a pinch of humour. The US is struggling to setup a new theatre in the Indo-Pacific and also increase troop deployments in the Middle East to maintain its relevancy but it has long lost. The West’s geopolitical supremacy is being pushed away from the larger Eurasian landmass where China’s Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) and Russia’s Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) complement each other without causing detriment to the EU’s long-term economic interests.

In this complex scenario, Pakistan is presented with a rare opportunity to come out of the shadows of timidity and assert itself as a regional stakeholder through adequate signalling. Its current efforts have been shooed away perhaps because the entire region is aware Islamabad has many domestic ills to resolve. But so do the Arab Gulf states, the US and Israel; since when have domestic dynamics discouraged assertiveness on the external front?

As the only node linking BRI’s maritime and continental components via the Indian Ocean, Pakistan has the highest stakes at risk of geopolitical showdowns among irrelevant actors. The larger geo-economic ambitions of a rising China, of which Pakistan is part through CPEC, necessitate complete freedom of navigation in the Arabian Sea to bring Gwadar on par with Hong Kong and Singapore. The Afghan peace conundrum is being placed at the backburner and Islamabad is not getting the due attention on the Kashmir crisis as it hoped for.

Time has come for Pakistan to adopt a unilateral, assertive but non-aggressive posture in the Gulf crisis by initiating its own conflict resolution mechanism, perhaps an ‘Indian Ocean Peace & Stability Conference’ in Karachi. Islamabad should approach the SCO Secretariat for patronage by using the larger Eurasian security card so that other members such as Iran and India can also be invited to the table. The SCO needs to be brought out from mainland and Central Asian issues down south. Naturally, this would be distinct from the forums proposed by Mike Pompeo and JavadZarif. Island states in the larger Indian Ocean such as Mauritius, Maldives, Sri Lanka and East African countries should form essential stakeholders in this conference.

Another key problem is that dialogue forums on Gulf security issues have been led by either a US-Arab-Israel camp on the one hand or an isolated Iranian camp on the other. As China and Russia are still cautious about their approach to the Indian Ocean, Pakistan finds itself in the ideal position to dictate orientation of any meaningful discourse.

Infusing the right blend of economics into geopolitics can create the perfect solution. Let the world toast to Pakistan on this.

The writer is a freelance national security and strategic affairs commentator based in Rawalpindi whose writings have appeared on South Asia Pulse, The Nation, Russian International Affairs Council, The Frontier Post and Pakistan Observer, to name a few. His comments have also been broadcast by Press TV, TVN Chile and Radio CII (South Africa). He can be reached on Twitter @misterzedpk