Daily Times

After Pence-Erdogan hours-long meeting at Ankara on Thursday, Turkey agreed to halt its incursion against the Kurdish-lead Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)for five days. Washington and Ankara agreed on a thirty two kilometers safe zone deep into Syriaunder latter’s supervision. The People’s Protections Units (YPG) – the Kurdish primary component of the SDF – would evacuate the safe zone during the ceasefire while Ankara would announce the formal closing of the operation. Washington would also ensure the disarmament of YPG and remove sanctions on Ankara imposed by the Trump Administration.

Turkey and Kurdish fighters have accused each other of cease-fire violations; however, the five-day truce is largely holding in northern Syria. Ankara has clearly announced it would resume the operation should the YPG failed to leave the border areas.

The cease-fire agreement has helped repair bilateral relations between Ankara and Washington badly deteriorated after US imposed sanctions on Turkey.Trump and Erdogan had fiery exchangeshave exchanged pleasantries after the deal.

Washington could use its influence over the Kurds to vacate the Turkish border areas; however, US defense secretary has categorically said US forces will not be enforcing the Syria safe-zone.Ankara would need to work with Moscow and Damascus for safe-zone which would be center of discussion between Russia’s Vladimir Putin and Tuekry’sErdogan on Tuesday in Moscow.

Erdogan wants to create a safe-zone 32 kilometers deep and 443 kilometer wide stretching from the city of Manbij to the Iraqi border. Erdogan talking to foreign media also said including DeirAzZor and Raqqa to the safe-zone would help repatriate two million Syrian refugees. Erdogan wants to establish 12 observation posts in the planned safe-zone.

Ankara has made its intentions clear: Not just it want to push the Kurdish fighters away from its western border and create a buffer by repatriating the Syrian refuges to the proposed safe-zone, Ankara also wants a permanent hold in Syria’s oil-rich north. The cities of Kobane and Manbij have great strategic importance while the cities of Raqaa and DeirAzZor have vast oil reservoirs. So, Ankara is eying both strategic depth and oil in Syria.

Moscow and Tehran have opposed permanent Turkish presence in Syrian north. Both have suggested Ankara to follow Adana agreement that allows creating a ten kilometers deep safe-zone with Syria-Turkey joint patrolling. President Bashar al Assad has also vowed to ensure Syria’s territorial integrity and retaliate to foreign aggression. Syrian and Russian forces have moved north to capture territories left by the Kurds. The control of Manbij, Kobane and many other areas in north has been taken by Russian and Syrian forces.Moscow prevented a certain clash between Syrian and Turkish-allied forces.

Moscow role in the coming days would be critical to stabilize Syria. It has already played the part of a stabilizer contrary to Washington whose decisions unbleached a wave of instability in Syria

With Russian mediation, the Syrian Kurds previously allied with US against Assad have struck a deal with him.Syria, earlier, had vowed not to negotiate or support Kurds for their betrayal to the country since they had allied with Washington in return for autonomy in the north. Bashar and Putin deliberately moved in slowly allowing Ankara to embark upon an incursion against the Kurds forcing them to fall into their leap. The Kurds saying they were to choose between genocide and compromise chose compromise and ask Assad for rescue against the Turkish onslaught.

Moscow has emerged as the strongest player in Syria. Not only that its arch rival Washington has left the northern Syria, the conditions allowed Assad and his strongest backer, Putin, to take control of the strategic oil-rich northern Syria. North was the only region Moscow and Damascus were unable to get hold of due to US presence. Trump’s abrupt decision to pullout helped Putin father his geopolitical gains in Syria. He has also said that if Russia comes in to fulfill the vacuum or act as mediator, he has no issue at all. Only time will tell why did Trump take such decisions that help Russia farther its political clout not just in Syria but the entire Middle East.

Syrian Kurds have been the greatest losers; not only they lost territory but also the partner, USA. They had to compromise with Moscow and Damascus- their long-term rivals. Syrian Kurds have blamed US for backstabbing and betrayal. The sixty thousand strong SDF has transformed into a full fighting force and a ray of hope for all the Kurds for their statehood bid. Now they face the danger of disarmament. Whatever Moscow, Ankara and Damascus decide about the northern Syria, the Kurds have already lost the battle.Their future seems to be uncertain as Assad and Putin have to decide about the Kurds’ re-integration with Syria.The Kurds have been trampled in the geopolitics and have been left with very little to play.

The world has apprehensions about twelve thousand IS terrorist kept in the Kurdish jails. There were reports of jailbreak in Kurdish-held areas where IS terrorists escaped. The west and US lawmakers have apprehensions of IS resurgence. Trump says Ankara has taken responsibility of the IS detainees. But if Turkish media and defense minister is to be believed, thousands of IS terrorists have already escapade. The Turkish Minister of Defense, HulusiAkar, was seen on TRT showing an empty IS jail. According to him the Kurds deliberately emptied the only IS jail with thousands of IS detainees to allow them escape. If his account were to be believed, the IS resurgence is surely on the cards.

Moscow role in the coming days would be critical to stabilize Syria. It has already played the part of a stabilizer contrary to Washington whose decisions unbleached a wave of instability in Syria.

Turkey must address legitimate security concerns it faced with, but embroiling in Syrian conflict will have ramificationson its progress, prosperity and development. Moscow, Ankara and Tehran – the three main players in Syria- should keep working with Damascus in line with the spirit of Astana Peace Process to reach a political settlement of the Syrian conflict.

The writer is a journalist and analyst working at the International Desk of a news channel