What may have gone wrong

Author: By Shahzad Raza

WASHINGTON: Whether Hilary Clinton or Donald Trump becomes the 45th president, both are the least popular presidential nominees in history of the United States.

Both had too many skeletons in their cupboards, committed serious mistakes in the past and were not the ideal choice of the Democratic and Republican parties.

If one is infamous for lewd comments and tax fraud, the other is allegedly responsible for jeopardising the national security. The ordinary Americans are sceptical. Their scepticism may translate into low turnout.

President Barak Obama on various TV shows and public appearances is appealing to the American public to come out and cast vote for their respective candidates.

In a Washington Post-ABC News poll, conducted in October, around 42 percent of registered voters had a favourable and 56 percent had unfavourable opinion of Ms Clinton. Mr Trump enjoyed the nod of 37 percent voters while 62 percent had unfavourable opinion about him.

There are only eight days to the presidential elections and both candidates have been doing everything possible to enter the Oval Office. The presidential campaign contained so many twists and turns. And it is not yet over.

Despite recent setback after FBI announcement against her, Ms Clinton has a clear edge as far as the electoral college is concerned. As many as 18 states and the Washington D.C., which have 242 electoral votes, have always gone for the Democratic nominee since 1992. Ms Clinton is also leading in Colorado, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Virginia which have been swing states for the past few elections.

The same poll shows Ms Clinton with a four-percentage point lead over Mr Trump among likely voters. The survey found her competitive in Alaska, Arizona, Georgia and Utah – the states which remained Republicans for decades.

Analysts believe the high or low turnout would play a decisive role on November 8. In 2012, about 125 million people voted – 65 million for President Obama and 60 million for Mitt Romney. That electorate was 72 percent white, 13 percent black, 10 percent Hispanic and 3 percent Asian. Women made up 53 percent of the electorate.

Mr Trump already annoyed a large section of black and Hispanic Americans with his brash statements. His lewd comments about women might also cost him dearly.

American pundits are building future scenarios, in case Ms Clinton is indicted for compromising the national security by using private email server to send thousands of official and secret emails. What would happen if she was indicted before or after the elections?

FBI Director James Comey merely announced reopening of investigation to examine new emails that came to light. It is yet to be determined if the emails are actually evidence of criminal activity.

Even if she is indicted by any chance, she would still be eligible to run for the presidency since indictment does not mean conviction. She might be forced by the people or her party to give up her candidacy which looks unlikely at the moment.

If the Democratic candidate is indicted and convicted after the elections and before her inauguration she would end up in jail and may be deemed incapacitated. In that case the Vice President-Elect, would become president. This scenario is equally unlikely since the case might take a long time to conclude.

The case would virtually become irrelevant if Ms Clinton becomes the president. The presidents are immune from prosecution while in office. As long as she enjoys immunity no criminal proceedings would be initiated against her.

The presidents in the United States can be impeached by the Congress, yet there is a catch. More than 140 years ago, the US Congress had determined that presidents could not be impeached for offenses they committed before they took office. So Ms Clinton would not be impeached for her past crimes.

Only swift indictment followed by equally swift conviction can deprive Ms Clinton of becoming the president. Otherwise, the road is pretty much smooth for her.

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