Daily Times

Later this month, The Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam (JUI-F) lead protest against the government is expected to choke the country’s capital in an attempt to topple Imran Khan’s government. Named as “Azadi march,” the protest can create troubles for the PTI’s lead government.

However, the question that requires an answer is this: Why is JUI-F is willing to take the route of agitation and what can come out of the intended protest? In the short to medium run, JUI-F protest, if happens, will determine the future of political parties in the opposition, PTI’s ability to govern and other state institutions ability to carry on their fiscal, accountability and other policies. JUI-F and its allies have announced to march to Islamabad at all costs. This essentially means that the tough decision to challenge the PTI’s government which has smartly evaded confrontation with major state institutions has been taken. Arguably, JUI-F’s decision to go all out against the PTI’s government has a history. JUI-F and PTI have fought against each other’s interests electorally: the last two general elections have seen PTI making gains at the expense of the JUI-F’s interests. Particularly in KP and FATA, PTI has withered JUI-F’s political clout by either directly winning in constituencies that previously belonged to JUI-F’s party or accommodating disgruntled elements from within the religious party. Among other parties in KP, JUI-F has certainly felt the heat of PTI’s meteoric rise.

Expectedly, the JUI-F’s gamble of protest is going to further sideline any chances of political opposition’s future negotiations with the government

PTI’s squeeze has not stopped at merely taking away political space from the JUI-F but also jabbing at the party’s religious clout. The last five years have seen PTI brining JUI-F’s “seminary rivals” into the center of the province’s power centers. Imran Khan’s party has not only made political alliances with the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-Sami (JUI-S) in KP but has also showered the latter with funds, putting to disadvantage JUI-F. Moreover, Darul Uloom Haqqania of the JUI-S has not only rivalled JUI-F’s in the province but has also taken away monetary support which JUI-F once enjoyed from the state. It’s important to note that PTI has virtually isolated a party that ruled two provinces from 2002-2008. Arguably, the 2002-2008 period was the peak of the JUI-F politics when the party lead a coalition of religious parties, called MMA.

Fast forward a few years and the party and its supporters in other provinces have not only been sidelined from the national mainstream but have also developed serious differences with various institutions of national security. The so-called politics of dissent or agitation which JUI-F is promising to the initiative will only complicate its relationship with the country’s national security institutions.

For the JUI-F current leadership, the party has no future in mainstream politics if it didn’t push back against the PTI’s government that has come hard on the party. While one can question the PTI’s hand at governance, the party has refused to make a compromise with parties such as JUI-F in terms of allowing them open space to do politics at its expense.

Arguably, JUI-F’s protest is more about taking the party’s political space back and sending a message that the former remains a powerhouse in the country’s politics. Moreover, for JUI-F, the protest is a “last resort effort” as the former only fears more isolation in the months to come.

However, does that mean the protest can topple the government or create a serious pressure against the ruling party? One, the march is certain to get JUI-F a serious media time. It’s ironic that for a long time, a party that has been criticized for its center-right politics has become a voice of the voiceless. Expectedly, the JUI-F’s gamble of protest is going to further sideline any chances of political opposition’s future negotiations with the government. With the state institutions standing behind the PTI, it’s impossible that JUI-F and its allies can force the ruling party into making any serious compromise.

JII-F’s predictable tactics of deploying Islam to save its skin may not garner any serious attention. In 2002, MMA had promised to make serious legislative changes to implement Shariah but it failed to implement any policy in this regard either at the federal level, where it headed a sizeable opposition group or in the two provinces where it was in power. JUI-F’s protest is more about the party’s political survival than fighting for a cause.

The support of the PML-N, PPP and other parties to the JUI-F’s protest is only going to infuriate the state institutions further. In a few weeks, the PTI may come out stronger at a time when its governance priorities are being questioned. JUI-F may end up giving another win to the ruling party.

The writer is a freelance journalist