Daily Times

On September 8, US President Trump withdrew from peace talks with the Taliban after the latter claimed responsibility of a suicide blast in Kabul on September 5 that left at least 12 persons, including a US soldier, dead. Hopes for peace in Afghanistan were again hit by uncertainty, despite the consistent nine rounds of talks between the US and Taliban at Doha from October 2018 till September 2019.

Both parties seemed nearer to agree in principles on terms of the agreement, which would have been followed by an intra-Afghan peace process. Trump Administration in the White House appeared to be more serious than ever, while the Taliban were less rigid than anticipated. Peace in Afghanistan seemed to be just around the corner though several stakeholders, including Afghan women, human rights organisations and Afghan people, had severe reservations.

Meanwhile, President Trump has sacked the National Security Advisor John R Bolton, which indicates that the US is no more interested in resuming the peace process soon. It can be argued that both the Taliban and President Trump are sliding into a cold state; a happening that has taken the Taliban by surprise.

In the backdrop of rising tension between the US forces and Taliban militants, the Afghan Presidential Elections (even though marked with irregularities and low turnout) took place on September 28, 2019, after having been postponed twice. There is no denying the fact that the elections sent a strong message to anti-democratic forces in Afghanistan, but security risks and threats on the ground added to the miseries of the people of Afghanistan who are at the receiving end of every security failure.

Reportedly, a total of 18 candidates from diverse ethnic backgrounds competed for the slot of the president. However, the final face-off is between Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah, with both camps claiming the victory before official results are announced. The elections in Afghanistan have been an uphill task in the present environment. This time, forming the government will be even more challenging for the winning side. Whosoever makes the government in Afghanistan will have to come up against stark security and economic challenges. For instance, the government of Ashraf Ghani is widely criticised for its failure in security and economic management. Now that the process of peace talks has broken down without any conclusion, dealing with the Taliban will be a herculean task. The Taliban will continue to dismantle the writ of the government in Kabul until they are offered a meaningful role and acceptance in the mainstream. Hence, it will be up to the next dispensation in Kabul to find out a way to bring the intra-Afghan peace process back on track.

The puritan Islam of the Taliban is not an option to be accepted by the women and moderate people of Afghanistan

Likewise, the economy of Afghanistan will also be a challenge for the upcoming government. The current GDP growth rate of Afghanistan is at 2.6 per cent and its share in the international market is drastically low due to meagre exports and relatively high imports. All this problem is due to the fragile security environment. The road to a stable economy goes through a stable security environment. For this to happen, it will be mandatory for the new regime in Afghanistan to bring peace. And again, the stakeholders in peace are the Afghan Taliban. Therefore, the initiation of an intra-Afghan peace between the Taliban and government will be necessary. Hence, the success or failure of the next government in Kabul will be determined on how it deals with the Taliban.

Other stakeholders, particularly women of Afghanistan, are suspicious of their prospects, regardless of who wins the elections. The puritan Islam of the Taliban is not an option to be accepted by the women and moderate people of Afghanistan as the faltering writ of the incumbent government is also not much to alleviate their sufferings. In the end, they are clamouring for support from international actors including human rights organisations, and especially the US.

Exploring further the pandora’s box of conflict in Afghanistan and players on the ground, it comes to light that almost 51 per cent of Afghanistan territory is controlled by the government, nearly 25 per cent by the Taliban while the rest is an open battleground. Beside the scuffle between the Taliban and government in Kabul, the notorious ISIS (Islamic State of Iraq and Syria) has found feet in the fragile security environment of Afghanistan and intends to establish its lost stronghold (of Middle East) on the unfortunate land of Afghanistan. This complicated tug-of-war does not stop here. The worst thing about this is that whenever one side claims a win over the other, the civilian population of Afghanistan suffers. Meanwhile, in the whole canvas of Afghanistan, the ISIS is seen by both government and Taliban as an alien factor. This can turn out to be a blessing in disguise for the government and Afghan Taliban because unlike them, the ISIS is a vile interpretation of radical and fundamental extremism. If the new government can bring the Taliban into the fold, it will be rather easy to eliminate the notorious militancy-magnet ISIS.

Summing up the debate, elections in Afghanistan are going to be a turning point in its history. There will be a room of opportunities as well as a plethora of challenges for the winner. If an intra-Afghan peace is achieved, the debate of US withdrawal will cease to exist. However, if China, Russia or any of the other actors influence the balance of US-Taliban talks under the umbrella of other catalysts such as OBOR, Kashmir or Middle East crises, the acquisition of a truce will become a much-convoluted matter than a few give and takes. History tells us that an indigenous peace effort is always worth more than an imported one. Hence, now the fate of Afghanistan rests in the hands of the next regime.

The writer is a research associate at the Centre for Pakistan and Gulf Studies