Daily Times

Pentagon avers that the Patriot air and missile defense system, Patriot Advance Capability-3 (PAC-3), has a proven combat record as it demonstrated its effectiveness and the lethality during Operation Iraqi Freedom in 2003.

Shortly after Operation Desert Storm in 1991, the US had made such an assertion about an earlier version of Patriot, claiming that it had intercepted 95% of Iraqi Scuds. But US army latter shredded its forecast to 79% and 40% about Saudi Arabia and Israel respectively. US GAO report found an even lowlier success rate and concluded that Patriot could destroy only 9% of the targets while Israeli Defense Force gauged its efficacy at barely 2%.

That was the same war when a conventionally-armed Iraqi Scud missile shirked the ‘cutting edge’ Patriot defense systems to strike a US barrack in Saudi Arabia, killing 27 US service members – a single greatest loss of life during first Gulf war.

History echoed as on September 14, Patriot again abashed Washington after several drone and cruise missiles sneaked through the rich US missile defense systems’ net to hit the world’s largest oil infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, suspending more than a half of the Saudi crude production.

While the US sticks at laying the responsibility on Iran despite the Houthis has assumed the responsibility of the abysmal assault – Washington is yet to delineate how exactly Houthis or even their Iranian backers were able to rush through the most advanced American defense shields.

Riyadh is the largest buyer of American weapons and only in 2018, it spent an estimated of $67.6 billion on arms purchases from the US including six battalions of US-made Patriot missiles and associated radars. In two separate deals in October 2014 and July 2015, Saudi Arabia had agreed to buy Patriot (PAC-3) for a total of $7.15 billion.

When asked why Saudi forces, shrouded with Patriot missiles, could not deter the ordinary drone attacks – US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo failed to come up with a valid argument and he stooped the critical inquiry stating “We have seen defense systems all around the world have mixed success.”

Pompeo perhaps overlooked that Patriot is an unrivaled and top-notch defense system with ‘near-perfect accuracy and peerless capability’ around the world. And Patriot’s failure to protect the principal strategic asset of a US ally and world’s largest energy supply sorely exposes its vulnerabilities against the orthodox unarmed aerial vehicles (UAVs).

As Patriot had botched to detect and destroy a Houthi-fired missile at Riyadh airport two years ago and Aramco pipeline in May, Saudi Arabia should court and probe US how can it entrust Patriot the responsibility of sheltering Aramco and other strategic facilities that serve the role of spine in its economy and defense.

Riyadh is the largest buyer of American weapons and only in 2018, it spent an estimated of $67.6 billion on arms purchases from the US including six battalions of US-made Patriot missiles and associated radars

In order to defy Riyadh’s intense displeasure over pitiful Patriots’ performance, the US could classify the blitzes in the weaknesses in Saudi domestic defense system. But such an effort would litter since the US 2019 Missile Defense Review has already endorsed that Saudi Arabia alongside Kuwait and UAE have successful combat experience with the Patriot system.

So, the blame of Saudi recent oil infrastructure upheaval has to be placed on Patriot missile defense system. Patriot was always susceptible against cruise missiles and drones that can fly closer to earth and the curvature of earth makes them harder to spot unless the radar is elevated.

The dismal Patriot’s recital would additionally dull the US bid to vend its THAAD systems to the several countries in Gulf including Saudi Arabia. THAAD has a longer-distance radar than Patriot but since it is more expensive and the fact that it can engage only from small to intermediate-range ballistic missiles, Riyadh will now definitely reconsider its decision to but THAAD.

Patriot fiasco derives a crucial outcome that in the event any future conflagration, the armed forces of Iran can seriously damage the gas and oil installation in Gulf, disrupting the global energy supply. As any military retaliation against Iran could trigger massive military firestorm in the region, the consequences would be too momentous to fathom.

Tehran is extremely irked by Trump administration’s ‘maximum pressure’ campaign that aims to bring its oil exports down to zero and with the newest US sanctions on its central bank, Iran has nothing to lose in a thinkable war. Therefore, Iranian vexation coupled with its impressive military strength could kindle a full-blown war in the event of any US military aggression on Iran.

That is why the US has pulled back from its prior hostile stance about a potential military retaliation against Iran and the US President Donald Trump is now saying that he “would like a diplomatic solution'” with Iran.

Diplomatic solution is emphatically the right solution that could impede the Persian Gulf to engulf in another military conflict and Patriot’s discomfiture has played a vital role in swarming Trump for a peaceful resolution.

The author is working in a private organization as a Market & Business Analyst and is writes on domestic, regional, and global issues