Don’t fight in the streets, please; prosperity is not far

Author: Hina Pervez Butt

Despite all the pandemonium, hubbub and mayhem in country’s streets for the last many years, there is still light at the end of the tunnel. At least, I can see the glimmer of hope, but it is an irony that the Pakistani media doesn’t highlight positive developments much.

Yes, I am referring to the recent evaluation of Pakistan’s economy by the renowned New York-based financial services company, Messrs Standard and Poor’s, and the praises showered last week by the visiting IMF chief Christine Lagarde, who had generously lauded the country for emerging out of an economic mess. The Standard and Poor’s has revised Pakistan’s long-term credit rating from B- to B, asserting better policymaking had improved the economy’s performance and raised the country’s growth prospects.

Founded in 1860, Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC (S&P) publishes financial research and analyses on bonds, stocks and commodities. The global financial world treats and follows the research and findings of the Standard and Poor’s as gospel. Along with the Moody’s Investors Service and the Fitch Ratings, the Standard and Poor’s is the most respected credit rating agency on the planet today, and if it says that Pakistan has continued to benefit under its democratically elected government, the news should please many ears.

However, as expected, this company has warned that many of Pakistan´s structural weaknesses such as a narrow tax base and security risks need to be addressed more vigorously. The Standard and Poor’s has forecasted Pakistan’s average annual GDP growth to 5.5 percent in the next three years from the current growth rate of 4.7 percent, which is heart-warming indeed. But can we achieve the GDP growth rate of 5.5 percent if we continue to agitate on roads, call for lockdowns and provoke the masses against each other?

Enough is enough. We need to tolerate each other and learn to co-exist.

The $45 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has already kick started, and we are destined to reap its fruits in the not-so-distant future. CPEC is a game changer for Pakistan, and is on its way to establish close land and maritime links among 60-plus countries across Asia and Europe. And if here I quote the estimates of the Lahore Chamber of Commerce and Industry, once CPEC is completed, it promises to increase the volume of trade among these countries to $2.5 trillion.

Then the gifted Gwadar Port is going to play a pivotal role in the development of the country, besides having the potential to gradually rectify the ills being confronted by the restive Balochistan through a network of roads, railway networks and power projects.

By the way, the first shipment under CPEC will enter Pakistan this month through the Sost border in Gilgit-Baltistan and this would be followed by another one if the Sost border remains open with no heavy snowfall till the mid of December. It is thus time to rejoice instead of picking faults and grabbing each other by the collar.

CPEC is intended to expand and upgrade Pakistani infrastructure as well as deepen and broaden economic links between Pakistan and China. This project will result in the creation of upwards of 700,000 direct jobs between 2015 and 2030, and add 2 to 2.5 percentage points to the country’s annual economic growth. Not bad at all!

According to a Standard Chartered Bank study and The Wall Street Journal, the value of those projects would be equal to all foreign direct investment in Pakistan since 1970, and would be equivalent to 17 percent of Pakistan’s 2015 gross domestic product.

Moreover, a network of pipelines to transport liquefied natural gas and oil will also be laid as part of the project, including a $2.5 billion pipeline between Gwadar and Nawabshah to eventually transport gas from Iran.

The prestigious American newspaper The Wall Street Journal has predicted that over $33 billion worth of energy infrastructure is to be constructed by private consortia to help cure Pakistan’s chronic energy shortages, which regularly amount to over 4,500MW, and have resulted in a loss of about 2-2.5 percent off Pakistan’s annual GDP. Over 10,400MW of energy generating capacity is to be developed between 2018 and 2020.

Mind you, The Wall Street Journal is the largest American newspaper by circulation. It had a circulation of about 2.4 million copies (including nearly 900,000 digital subscriptions) as of March 2013.

The writer is a graduate of LUMS and currently serves as an MPA of Punjab. She tweets at @hinaparvezbutt

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