Daily Times

Although Donald Trump has always been very unpredictable, his speech at the UNGA suggests he doesn’t seem to be interested in embarking on a new military confrontation in the Middle East. Trump said that the US didn’t seek war with any country, nor it wanted to indulge in new useless wars. According to Trump, it took more courage to avert a war than to fight one. Although Trump strongly criticised his rivals, especially China and Iran, his tone was relatively soft and less rhetorical. His tone wasn’t reconciliatory, but it wasn’t jingoistic either.

Contrary to his predecessor, there was no mention of the US’s war on terror or the so-called Islamic extremism. However, he did talk about extremism in an Indian hosted event at the Houston to appease Modi.

Trump made a promise during his election campaign to pull US troops out of Afghanistan and Syria. Despite the disapproval of the US security establishment, he issued orders to pull out from Iraq and Syria. He engaged the Taliban in nine rounds of talks, and the agreement was about to be reached before he unilaterally suspended the Afghan peace talks. At the UN, Trump expressed his grief over the Taliban continued the military campaign and hoped to find a solution to the Afghan issue with the help of his allies.

Historically, the US has been a guarantor to the security of its Arab and the European allies against their perceived threats from Iran and Russia respectively. Trump didn’t reiterate the US commitment with the Arabs to defend them, despite the fact his allies, especially the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, which has been rendered helpless against the Houthis. Trump didn’t reiterate the US commitment with the Arabs to defend them, despite the fact his allies, especially the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, which has been rendered helpless against the Houthis. He didn’t ensure them to protect against Houthis or Iranians which must have enhanced the anxiety of the Arab leaders. So what MBS and the strategists at Riyadh must have been thinking who would act as their saviour in case of an all-out war with Yemen’s Houthis or Iran?

Trump called Iran’s government a ‘repressive regime’ blaming it for spreading terrorism in the region. He also talked about Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs and asked the world to stop Iran getting a nuclear weapon or the means of delivery. He also strongly criticised Iran’s supreme leader for calling Israel a cancerous tumour and asking the world to get rid of it. But Trump didn’t threaten Iran with military action. Rather, Trump said that he had imposed the toughest sanctions to force Iran to change its course.

Trump also didn’t express the desire of regime change in Iran that shows an apparent policy shift in Trump Administration with one warmonger less at the White House.

With the presidential polls around the corner, Trump doesn’t seem to be in a mode to indulge in any military conflict

Trump pointed out that the yesteryears’ foes happen to be today’s fast friends of the US and that his country doesn’t believe in permanent animosity. It believes in engagement and partnership.

Apparently, Trump tried to convey a message to his rivals, especially the Iranian and the Chinese leadership that they could become friends one day, maybe at the US terms. Trump’s offer also keeps alive optimism of meaningful engagement between Washington and Tehran.

With the presidential polls round the corner, Trump doesn’t seem to be in a mode to indulge in any military conflict. He wants to disengage the US military from conflict zones to fulfil his campaign promise to take political benefit in the coming elections. Trump’s approach of non-military engagement with Iran would not be pleasing for warmongers in the US administration, the Arab capitals and Tel Aviv, who were after a war with Iran with the stated objective of regime change in Tehran.

Trump, contrary to Bush or Obama, has embarked on trade wars with his friends and foes. Trump asked for drastic changes in the World Trade Organisation, alleging China, European Union and many other countries for having unfair trade. Trump said that to confront China’s “unfair practices,” he has imposed a tariff on Chinese good worth 500 billion dollars. He also hoped for making fair deals with China and Japan and the UK.

With Trump at the helm, bilateralism would flourish in the US, and the multilateralism and alliances would keep crumbling like TPP, Paris 2015 and Iran nuclear deal. Trump has announced to strike a deal with the UK, whereas his relationship with the EU has been deteriorating fast.

Trump called on nations round the globe to embrace nationalism and reject globalism, saying wise leaders put their people and countries first. The US has been leading the post-world war two world order that has been crumbling with Trump’s unilateral withdrawal from alliances and multilateral agreements. Trump’s romance with nationalism would further reduce US political clout. China with its multilateral deals worth hundreds of billions of dollars is furthering its political power and replacing the US as the world superpower.

Iranian President Hassan Rohani, in his speech at the UNGA, demanded the US to leave the Gulf saying the security of the Gulf can be ensured only by neighbours, not outsiders.

French President Emmanuel Macron tried for mediation between Washington and Tehran. His efforts for Rohani-Trump meeting on the sidelines of the UNGA couldn’t bore fruit as Iran rejected any negotiations with the US as long as sanctions remain imposed on it.

Rouhani said Iran had “resisted the most merciless economic terrorism,” and would keep resisting against the US hegemony. He also warned the Gulf region was “on the verge of collapse, as a single blunder can fuel a big fire.”

Rouhani invited Gulf to join its initiative, dubbed Hormuz Peace Endeavor (HOPE).

It is clear the US wants to exert maximum economic pressure on Tehran to force it to abandon the nuclear and ballistic missile programs and support to its regional allies, like Yemen’s Houthis and Lebanon’s Hezbollah, by renegotiating the nuclear deal. The US wants to bring Iran on the negotiating table without paying the necessary price. Iran wants to ensure the US pays the price by removing all crippling economic sanctions imposed on Iran before coming back to the negotiating table.

The writer is a journalist and an analyst working at the International Desk of a news channel