Daily Times

Who would have expected that the Houthis from Yemen would suddenly attract the world’s attention with their drone attacks on Saudi oil refineries? But that is what precisely happened the other day, when these attacks, affecting the production of nearly six million barrels of crude oil, representing more than half of the kingdom’s output and about six per cent of the global oil supply, sent oil prices shooting up, at least, in the short time. The Saudis assure that the damage is only short term and that the oil supplies will be back to normal within a few weeks.

But the next chapter in this saga will depend on the counter-reaction to the Houthi attack. Yemen’s Houthis were so far at the receiving end of the indiscriminate Saudi-led bombing of their region; causing large-scale destruction of civilian lives and mass starvation. And in this, the Saudis and their regional allies had the US support by the way of weapon supplies and intelligence-sharing.

Now that the Saudis are at the receiving end in terms of endangering their oil production and exports, this conflict in the Middle East could be a game-changer. The Houthis seem to have found a relatively cheap and effective way of confronting the Saudis by threatening their economic lifeline, which is dependent on oil exports.

It is reported that the drones used may have cost $15,000 or less to build. With the kind of attention from the drone attacks and the considerable damage done, there will be a temptation for the Houthis to repeat this exercise as a counter to Saudi attacks on Yemen.

This doesn’t mean that it will be easy as Saudis, now warned, will certainly strengthen their detection and interception measures, with help from the US.

It is not just the Saudis who were taken unawarely by the Yemeni drones but the US too. Their instant reaction was that Iran was behind it all. The US Secretary of State, Mike Pompei, called it “an unprecedented attack on the world’s energy supply,” and asserted that there was “no evidence that the attacks came from Yemen;” thus, pointing to Iran as the likely culprit.

Later, during a visit to Saudi Arabia, he described the drone attacks as “an act of war” on the Saudi kingdom. If Iran is behind this “act of war”, then the US might feel obliged to come to the aid of the Saudi kingdom, if so called.

It could lead to an all-round conflict. Iran’s foreign minister has already said that if his country were attacked, it would mean an all-out war.

The retaliation by the Houthis against Saudi attacks on their territory in Yemen could be a game-changer

Not surprisingly, the US immediately expressed its support for Saudi Arabia. Condemning the attack in a phone call with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Trump offered support for “Saudi Arabia’s self-defence.” Indeed, his initial reaction was quite frightening; saying that the US was locked and loaded.

To quote Trump, “There is a reason to believe that we know the culprit [Iran], are locked and loaded depending on verification, but are waiting to hear from the Kingdom as to who they believe was the cause of this attack, and under what terms we would proceed.”

Saudi Arabia does not doubt that Iran was behind the attacks. In an elaborate press conference, the Saudi authorities displayed, what they believed, were the remnants of drones and missiles from Iranian sources.

So far, there has been nothing conclusive to prove that Iran was involved. And Iran has strongly denied its involvement. According to Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, ” They [the US and Saudis] want to impose maximum pressure on Iran through slander.” He added, “We don’t want conflict in the region… Who started the conflict?” while blaming Washington and its Gulf allies in the region.

The Houthis have owned up to the attacks and reportedly said that they had listed dozens of sites in the United Arab Emirates as possible targets. If true, the situation might get worse.

The retaliation by the Houthis against Saudi attacks on their territory in Yemen could be a game-changer, depending on how Saudis, their Gulf allies, and the US respond to this new turn in an already explosive situation.

The US is blowing hot and cold with Trump saying that all options would be open-whatever that might mean. During his recent visit to the Saudi kingdom, the US Secretary of State Pompeo described the attacks as “an act of war” on the Saudi kingdom. And if the Saudis were to treat it as such and call upon the US to get directly involved as a security ally against this allegedly Iranian-sponsored attacks, one wouldn’t know where all this would end.

Things don’t look good as the US is deploying more military forces in the region and is putting pressure on its European allies to support it politically and militarily.

Iran is a country, which has survived against all the odds since its 1979 revolution, including the US-supported Iraqi invasion of Iran that dragged on for much of the eighties and one of the most crippling international economic sanctions against any country. If pushed to the wall, it has the capacity to severely disrupt global oil supplies through the Persian Gulf, notwithstanding all the international armada being put together by the US. And the Iranian counter-attack will not just be confined to the region. The US might be able to wreak much havoc on Iran with its superior military power but, going by the experience of all its military and political adventures in the Middle East so far, this potential conflict might find the US in even bigger trouble.

Hopefully, the US would try to defuse the situation, though its additional military deployment doesn’t point to this. There is an easy way out of it. That is to restore the nuclear deal with Iran, which Trump tore away. By most accounts, Iran was abiding by its provisions. This should be followed by sorting out the humanitarian catastrophe in Yemen.

The writer is a senior journalist and academic based in Sydney, Australia