Daily Times

Maulana Fazlur Rehman’s long-march poses some threat to Pakistan Tehreek e Insaf (PTI) in Islamabad, but whether it would mature, cannot be accurately predicted. Why?

Maulana, although truly hurt by the election outcomes, is difficult to read and even more difficult to interpret. Personally, I don’t foresee a political storm brewing at the moment. Had Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PMLN) called for this protest, we would have taken it much more seriously since it could lead to uprooting the whole system. To the party leadership, we would have asked about the reasons, the objectives and the legitimacy of such a risky endeavour. But that is not the case. Maulana stays unpredictable, the reason for his success in politics on the one hand, and also the cause for his lack of appeal as a national leader on the other.

After Imran Khan has pacified the Army Chief through a three-year extension in tenure, the leader of Pakistan Tehreek e Insaf does not have to worry about the establishment plotting against him either. For how long, the duo would see each other eye to eye, still has to be determined but their joint mission is so far sailing smoothly.

Furthermore, none of the major political parties has demanded a midterm election; or conspired to bring a no-confidence motion against the Prime Minister; asked for a nationwide street protest; submitted a petition in the Supreme Court against the current government that could jeopardize its five-year term; or instructed its members to resign from the National Assembly. Provincial governments, as incompetent as all of them are, too do not face an upset. Also, the opposition has lost its chance to replace the Chairman of the Senate, the government playing its tricks through not-so-clean secret ballot box while maintaining its clean image!

Pakistan needed more stable democratic institutions after 10 years of uninterrupted process, but they stand fragile as ever

Yet, with all these factors playing in PTI’s favour, an air of instability pervades the political landscape. Why is that? Pakistan needed more stable democratic institutions after 10 years of uninterrupted process, but they stand fragile as ever. They should have strengthened their roots deep down into the masses by now, a dream that never turned true. An economic boom had to be knocking at doorsteps; instead, we are struck by a Tsunami of inflation, unemployment and negative growth rate.

Had the growth rate touched the double digits, people would have been busy talking about new investments, new strategies to get rich. Or had the money poured in from the West, the real estate prices soared, the local stock market performed better than the New York Stock Exchange, the accountability process translated into Dollars, we would have ignored the political uncertainty altogether enabling the current setup to prevail. None of it seems to be happening now,/ which makes the instability looks more intimidating and more dreadful.

In short, failure of the current government to triumph in any sector–economy, law and order, policy-making or even the legislation–has contributed in exacerbating the crisis, I agree. But I also agree that incompetency does not sit at the core of the problem or explain it all. Then what does?

Is it because most of the opposition leaders are incarcerated tipping the system on one side? Certainly, it is playing a role. However, I think the real cause of the uncertainty-and may be the lack of legitimacy for this government-is that the opposition leaders, mainly Mian Nawaz Sharif and Maryam Nawaz, and to some extent Asif Ali Zardari, did not agree on any compromise; preferring jail time over exile. If they have accepted to leave the country for an indefinite period, the crisis would have been over like it happened during Musharraf’s regime when the Sharif family abruptly left the country.

The mistake that Old Nawaz Sharif made in 2000, which I believe he still regrets, the New Nawaz Sharif is not ready to make in 2020. He has learnt that enduring adverse conditions with the people, produces much more fruitful results than relaxing in the castles of Saudi Arabia. Even worse, this time, his daughter is ready to stay behind bars too. I am sure her sacrifice has taken Sharif family too far from the negotiation table, if it was ever an option, while it has brought her closer to the people. You could feel the energy emanating from the crowd during her last few rallies. That brings bad news first for the economy, as political uncertainty and economic growth are inversely proportional to each other. Second, it brings bad news for the PTI led government as without a booming Economy it would be difficult to convince people that the New Pakistan is better than the Old Pakistan. Third and the most important, it undermines the authority of the powers who wrote the script to bring PTI into power. They must have miscalculated something, or maybe they just thought the civilians were soft and would never compromise on personal luxuries-the palaces, the air-conditioners, the Gucci shoes.

I know, Imran Khan has said many times that he would not offer or agree to any form of reconciliation/compromise (NRO) with the ‘corrupt’ leaders of the opposition. Maybe he is telling the truth since it would be the best political strategy to refuse to sell something that no one wants to buy. If no one is asking for an NRO, it provides him with the face-saving for being tough on corruption to reject it after all.

The writer is a US-based freelance columnist