Daily Times

The 14th September drone attacks by Houthis militia on Saudi Aramco oil facilities in the eastern city of Abqaiq have turned out to be a big shock for the Saudis which one Arab commentator has described as “Saudi Arabia’s 9/11”. It was a direct hit to the Saudi economic nerve centre as the attack affected 6% of the global oil production estimated at 5.7 million barrels per day and almost 50% of Saudi oil production in a day. A Saudi Ministry of Defence representative blamed Iran’s connivance in the attacks and showed debris of missiles and drones with Iranian markings. He, however, steered clear of directly blaming Iran for the attacks.

Soon after the attack, US Secretary of State Pompeo accused Iran of attacks while President Trump’s immediate Twitter response was: “we have locked and loaded depending on verification”. However, he hastened to add that “we are waiting to hear from the kingdom as to who they believe was the cause of this attack, and under what terms we would proceed”. While Saudi Defence Ministry has confirmed Iranian markings on the drones and missiles, the Saudi government is still cautious in apportioning the blame on Iran. Similarly, the US while blunt in accusing Iran of involvement has stopped short of taking any military action against Iran although President Trump announced that he was further tightening sanctions against Iran.

Iran, on the other hand, vehemently denied any involvement and called for impartial inquiry. Foreign Minister Javad Zarif advised Saudis to mend their fences with the Houthis. In a CNN interview he warned that any US or Saudi military strike would cause “all-out war”. President Rouhani also rejected allegations against Iran and observed “they (US) want to impose maximum pressure on Iran through slander…. We don’t want conflict in the region.”

The renewed tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia have emerged at a time when the Middle East is witnessing substantive changes including defeat of Daesh/ISIS; a much better understanding between Iran, Turkey and Russia on Syria; and likely emergence of a strategic alliance between Iran, China and Russia. In a nutshell, Iran has positioned itself in a manner to secure its national security and brace up for bigger challenges emanating from Saudi Arabia with the backing of the US. The above changes certainly favour Iran and pose a direct challenge to the US interests in the region.

For the Saudis, a confrontationist posture towards Iran would be full of challenges. It is already entangled in Yemen war whose end is not in sight while Saudi credibility as a Gulf Region’s big and influential power has received a big jolt. There are reports that even UAE is not satisfied with the ongoing campaign against Yemen and would be too happy and eager to wriggle out. Houthis have also warned that UAE would be next in line and that they have identified targets in Abu Dhabi and Dubai.

The biggest gainer in the deteriorating situation between Iran and Saudi Arabia would be the American military-industrial complex. Already, at the Yemen theatre, Saudis and Emiratis have spent over $ 350 billion dollars in purchase of weapons and still counting their losses. A conflagration between Saudi Arabia and Iran would mean much bigger war theatre and incalculable men and material losses. There are chances that the war between the two Middle Eastern giants may engulf other neighbouring states. Not only that, the world is likely to face steep rise in oil prices; interruption in smooth supply of oil from the region which accounts for 40% of world supplies may plunge the world in severe recession. Economically, it would spell disaster for oil importing countries like Pakistan.

Both Iran and Saudi Arabia will have to rethink about fighting proxy wars in the Muslim countries to gain influence. Their involvement has only aggravated the sectarian problems in those countries; growing sectarianism is breeding extremism and becoming a source of instability all around the Muslim world besides promoting anti-Muslim feelings at the global level

Another intriguing question is about the efficacy of the missile defence system which Saudi Arabia acquired from the western sources, mainly the US. According to defence experts, either the missile defence systems were inefficient to detect and neutralize incoming drones or some stealth technology was used to attack Saudi installations with precision. In a lighter vein the Russian President Putin during a press conference in Ankara offered Russian missile defence system to the Saudis. He also demanded “thorough and impartial” investigations into the incident, a veiled warning to the Americans not to push allegations against Iran without proof.

On the political plane a reality check would be in order, especially after the imposition of strict US sanctions against Iran after the latter withdrew from Iran nuclear deal known as Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The following deserve attention: (a) the US plans for “regime change”, have not succeeded as US’ bellicose attitude has further strengthened the position of the ruling clergy in the country; (b) the US and other detractors’ hope that that deteriorating economic situation in Iran may force the people to come out on the streets has also failed; in fact, American sanctions have created anti-American sentiments in the country and the people blame the US sanctions responsible for their miseries; (c) Iranian dissidents living abroad and their sleeper cells inside the country have also failed to capitalize on the situation.

In the current scenario, the US faces a dilemma if the situation aggravates. The US withdrawal from talks with the Taliban has created uncertainty especially at a time when the US presidential elections are barely a year away. The Trump administration’s involvement in multiple military fronts would dampen the chances of American boots on the ground in the Gulf theatre should there be a war between Saudis and Iran. This would mean induction of troops from the neighbourhood, including Pakistan. However, before taking the extreme measure, the Saudis will have to realize the consequences of a direct confrontation, especially in light of bitter experiences in Yemen.

Prudence demands statesmanship by Saudi Arabia and Iran. To begin with, Iran will have to visibly lighten its footprint in Yemen as confidence building measure. Second, both Iran and Saudi Arabia will have to rethink about fighting proxy wars in the Muslim countries to gain influence. Their involvement has only aggravated the sectarian problems in those countries; growing sectarianism is breeding extremism and becoming a source of instability all around the Muslim world besides promoting anti-Muslim feelings at the global level. It is not a coincidence that only Muslim countries are the hotspots of turmoil while non-Muslim world is thriving with peace and prosperity. Third, Iran should raise the confidence level of Gulf States through cooperation and concord rather than using the sectarian card to cause problems in the monarchies where Shias are in majority or are a substantive minority. Fourth, the dubious game of “regime change” either from the US-Saudis in Iran or the latter’s efforts to cause unrest in the Gulf states by playing the sectarian card has to stop if peace is intended in the region.

For Pakistan, it’s going to be a tightrope walking, as both Saudi Arabia and Iran are important Muslim brotherly countries. Prime Minister Imran Khan, during his meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman on 19th September, has strongly condemned the drone attacks and expressed solidarity with the kingdom. However, he would be striving hard to bring both Iran and Saudis to the negotiating table. In the worst case scenario Mr. Khan can assure security assistance to Saudis within their borders but cannot commit troops to cross the Persian Gulf.

The writer is a former ambassador