Daily Times

Last month, the port city of Aden, which is currently the seat of the exiled President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi’s government, was captured by southern separatists demanding secession of South Yemen. The separatists are backed by the UAE, Saudi Arabia’s so-called partner in Yemen. The recent clashes are not the first time that the two sides-the exiled President Hadi and Southern separatists-have engaged in deadly fighting. Three days of battles in January 2018 killed dozens of people and wounded hundreds in Aden.

Earlier last month, things escalated to new heights again when a Southern separatists group called the Southern Transitional Council (STC),fully backed by the UAE, took effective control of Aden on August 10 after four days of fierce battle that killed at least 40.

In practical terms, there are now three power centres and multiple militias in today’s Yemen: the Houthis, who control capital Sana’a and the northern towns, the southern separatists who are strong in and around Aden, and the internationally recognised government that is run from Saudi Arabia. The fight against the Houthis has almost stalled, but another conflict that is between the Hadi government and the Southern separatists is gaining momentum. A temporary stalemate has set in as the Saudi and Emirati officials hold discussions. The two governments have issued statements supporting unity and legitimacy in Yemen. But there is little guarantee that the joint Saudi-UAE appeal will be heeded on the ground in Aden. The current situation in the south is very fragile, and clashes can erupt anytime.

To understand this conflict, first we have to know some historical background of the North and South Yemen. The present-day Yemen consists of two formerly independent countries that united in 1990: the Yemen Arab Republic (North Yemen) and the People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen (South Yemen). The two Yemens had never been formally unified prior to 1990 and developed along different political and religious lines. North Yemen’s origin can be traced back to the founding of a Zaydi Shi’a imamate, a theocracy ruled by an imam, by Imam Yahya in 897. Yahya, a descendant of Prophet Mohammad (pbuh), was the first to unify the northern part of Yemen under Islamic rule.

South Yemen has a different story. The area of southern Yemen, other than being briefly ruled by the Ottomans and the Ayyubid Dynasty, had been largely ungoverned due to its sparse population and harsh environment. But in the 19th century, the British colonised South Yemen as they were looking for a place, ideally on the Arabian Peninsula, where they could service ships en route to India. Still in 1994,the two Yemens merged in the name of better economy and administrative apparatus but this merger was never implemented in its true spirit.

A divided Yemen is a perfect recipe for chronic instability and conflict in a country that occupies a strategic position along one of the world’s most important trade routes

Moreover, this unification left many southerners with unaddressed grievances about representation in the new central government and the distribution of state resources. These southern grievances persisted and became strong through a secessionist civil war in 1994, and the subsequent rise of the grassroots separatist movement called the Southern Movement, or Hirak, in 2007.

Even today widespread grassroot support for secession persists in the south and was exemplified by a massive rally in support of the STC’s takeover of Aden. For the time being, it seems as if fighting in the South have stopped, but there is a strong undercurrent that can easily lead to a full-fledged armed conflict between the Hadi government and the Southern separatists. There are already reports coming from local officials on the ground that both sides are gathering troops and preparing military hardware for battle. It’s being speculated that in the oil-producing Shabwa province, government forces have been preparing to recapture the neighbouring Abyan region and the port city Aden. For sure, this incoming conflict won’t be over soon as both the sides have powerful backers i.e. Saudis and Emiratis, which won’t let their respective proxies to lose easily.

The international community and Arab world can’t just remain mute spectators of this conflict. A divided Yemen will result in years of on and off war between the north and south, Southern Yemen will be more of a haven for militant Salafi groups like the Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, and Iran may deepen its relationship with the Houthis in the north and make it a client state. A divided Yemen is a perfect recipe for chronic instability and conflict in a country that occupies a strategic position along one of the world’s most important trade routes. A decentralised federalist state that provides equal degrees of autonomy and resource-sharing to southern separatists, northern Houthis, and other traditionally independent regions in Yemen might form the foundations of a future Yemeni state.

The first step toward de-escalation of this conflict should be that outside powers reduce their roles and let Yemenis come in the forefront and decide for themselves. There is an urgent requirement of talks between President Hadi’s government and the Southern separatists so that some legitimate demands of separatists like better representation in the government can be addressed immediately. Otherwise, unfortunately, Yemen will be dragged into another bloody conflict, which will only add to the ongoing sufferings of the common Yemeni.

The writer is a columnist for Middle-East and Af-Pak region; Emailmanishraiva@gmail.com