Daily Times

In a series of Tweets on Saturday, US President Donald Trump announced an end to ongoing peace talks with the Taliban. Analyses over the implications of this abrupt move have started to come out. By all means, this will dent chances of a modicum of peace ,however tenuous, in Afghanistan. However , a deadlock in Afghanistan is the last thing that Pakistan needs, especially when it is on the lookout for third-party support on the Kashmir issue after India revoked Articles 370 and 35-A that ended Jammu and Kashmir’s autonomy. That the US has shown unprecedented interest in the Kashmir issue after a hiatus of decades ,is reason enough to assert that trouble in Kabul will affect Pakistan’s push to convince US to pressure India over Kashmir. There are a number of reasons as to why Trump’s recent announcement is not good news for Pakistan’s response mix to India on Kashmir .

There was great buzz ahead of Prime Minister Imran Khan’s maiden meeting with US President Donald Trump. Pundits expected both to get along well and kick start a process of resetting fractured Pak-US relations. This is exactly what panned out as both developed a good camaraderie with Trump later speaking highly of Khan. However, the meeting was marked by another very explosive and important side event that continues to reverberate even now. In response to a question on Kashmir, Imran Khan palmed off the issue and sought Trump’s mediation. What followed was something that the doctor did not order for India. Though Trump’s lucid account of how Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi asked him to arbitrate in the Kashmir conflict was vehemently rejected by New Delhi, it was not completely repudiated by US officials and was seen as a great boost to Islamabad’s bid to resuscitate the issue internationally. If anything, Kashmir became the issue that received greater attention in media coverage of the Trump-Khan summit.

With rapport established, it was expected that Khan will ratchet up his pitch to the US to use its good offices for dialogue with India while accentuating the fact that it is India’s obduracy that is impeding peace on the Subcontinent. This ideally would have played to Islamabad’s advantage as it tries to highlight the vitality of conflict resolution as opposed to mere ad-hoc crisis management. However, the situation changed drastically when, last month, New Delhi abrogated Articles 370 and 35-A.Stalwarts and South Asia watchers believe that Trump’s mediation offer hastened the decision to do away with Article 370, a policy option that was part of BJP’s manifesto.

The decision to revoke Article 370 was greeted with censure by the Kashmiri political leaders that felt that India had betrayed them. They remain incarcerated along with the Kashmiris as the lockdown enters its second month . Protests have resulted in egregious human rights violations that have been widely reported in major media outlets.

Pakistan, being one of the parties to the decades-long conflict has not taken India’s unilateral act of annexation lying down. In tandem with downgrading diplomatic ties with India, Pakistan has launched a vociferous diplomatic offensive. PM Khan has vowed to take charge as the ‘Ambassador of Kashmir’ and fight against a fascist ideology that he likens to that of Nazi Germany.

One of the conduits that Khan has used to good effect has been the one he established with President Trump. It is noteworthy, that analysts had set personal ease of communication between the two as a major yardstick to measure the success of Khan’s DC trip. In a 20-minute long phone call on August 16, Khan broached the Kashmir issue and India’s efforts to bring about demographic changes in Kashmir. Khan called this phenomenon as one that had escalatory potential in an even otherwise volatile region. Given that India is constantly claiming that the revocation is an internal affair, a US President investing his time on Kashmir is something that translates into a tactical victory for Islamabad. This is not where it all stopped. On 19th August President Trump spoke with PM Modi and PM Khan for 30 and 35 minutes, respectively about the Kashmir issue, amongst other matters.

Trump’s announcement of his phone calls via Twitter was instructive. India has long demanded de-hyphenation from Pakistan, and rebuked discussing Kashmir with third parties. Trump termed PM Modi and PM Khan as his good friends, and said that he discussed Kashmir with them. While talking about Kashmir and its explosive situation later, Trump said he will try his best to mediate and resolve a very dangerous conflict.

The comments came hours after the US urged India to lift restrictions, and open lines of communication in Indian Occupied Kashmir. Within a month of the Khan-Trump summit at the White House, Islamabad has achieved some important tactical milestones that have strategic implications. One, Kashmir as a disputed and simmering issue that needs to be resolved, is now well and truly part of US’ discourse. Also, it is not being linked to India’s ‘terrorism’ mantra. Two, Kashmir is in international limelight after a long time. India had successfully kept the issue off the table in international fora and important foreign capitals, including those of P5 countries. Three, positive developments pertaining to the Afghan peace process were likely to permeate in overall Pak-US relations and those between Trump and Khan.

At the very least, the US could have continued to push India to enter into a dialogue with Pakistan over Kashmir, something that is repugnant to New Delhi’s claim that anything pertaining to Kashmir is an internal matter

While it is unreasonable to expect, at this stage, that this renewed bonhomie between Washington and Islamabad would have been decisive for Kashmir, it certainly was slated to increase pressure on India and exacerbate issues in a not-so-seamless Indo-US strategic partnership. While India could call the Trump-Modi meeting on the sidelines of G7 as a pressure release , Pakistan certainly got what it wanted :Kashmir issue becoming the center of attention. President Trump stressed the need for both countries to resolve the dispute amicably , and hoped that the situation is under control. The deteriorating situation in Kashmir could have once again provided an opportunity to Khan to inform Trump that things in Kashmir are anything but normal . Trump could have been all ears ,had chances of reaching a dotted line in Afghanistan translated into a peace deal. Khan could have strengthened his hand in the days to come viz Trump, had the Afghan deal been cracked before his much-awaited 5-day UN campaign this month. However, with Trump calling off negotiations with the Taliban, Pakistan cannot expect much from POTUS in this regard in the days to come, making Pakistan’s work cut out ahead of the UNGA huddle . The US could attribute Taliban’s inflexibility to Islamabad and its backing -off from the peace process in a bid to pressure the US to play a greater role in Kashmir. Such line of thinking in Washington, will not win Pakistan any favours at a time when it tries to muster international support on Kashmir. For now ,however , the US has not taken a tough line. President Trump has again offered mediation on Kashmir, and the US has designated head of the Tehreek-e- Taliban Pakistan as a global terrorist. Pakistan would ideally want the peace process to resume as soon as possible so as to avoid an unneeded and diversionary tiff with the US .

Given Islamabad’s current set of limitations, the US window provided it with a good option to make India feel the heat of its actions of 5th August. At the very least, the US could have continued to pushIndia to enter into a dialogue with Pakistan over Kashmir, something that is repugnant to New Delhi’s claim that anything pertaining to Kashmir is an internal matter. That said , the impasse in Doha will preclude more constructive US’ engagement on Kashmir. Thus, Pakistan needs to navigate Pak-US ties carefully after a disruption of the peace process. A troubled relationship with the US is the last thing that the Doctor can order for Pakistan.

The wrter is the Associate Editor of Pakistan Politico, and a Visiting Fellow at the Stimson Center, Washington DC