Daily Times

All those who desire peace in South Asia should be deeply worried about the rapidly deteriorating relations between India and Pakistan. Over the past two decades, mutual hostility has completely sabotaged any chance of peace between Indians and Pakistanis and sowed the seeds of a devastating conflict.

A nuclear war between India and Pakistan is a real possibility that will have dire consequences for the region and beyond.In response to Pakistan’s nuclear options, there is the dangerous talk of fighting and winning a nuclear war emanating from India. The Indian Defense Minister has hinted that his country would give up its doctrine of no-first-use of nuclear weapons. Studies have indicated astronomically high casualties from a regional war of this nature.

The decision by the Indian government to integrate its part of Kashmir into India, part of a disputed region, has raised tensions. While most Indians celebrated the Kashmir change, adding to the high popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, it met with general condemnation in Pakistan. It intensely pressured Prime Minister Imran Khan’s military-backed government in Pakistan to deliver a vigorous response to the Indian action, despite the significant diplomatic and economic constraints it faces.

Even more alarming, inflammatory cross-border rhetoric promoted by selfish elites has brought a religious and culture war dynamic to the mix, thus changing a clash over territory into an ultimate clash of civilizations. Hindus and Muslims pitted against each other, what the deeply controversial idea of the partition of the sub-continent, based on religion, sought to avoid. Two nuclear-armed neighbors perceptually in a conflict replaced the sporadic communal violence between Hindus and Muslims before the division of India in 1947.

Jihadi terror and ultra-nationalist fear-mongering have driven a deep wedge between the people of India and Pakistan, which will be difficult to remove. And the edgy standoff in Kashmir has emboldened extremist forces on both sides to bury the prospects of India-Pakistan peace for some time to come. President Trump offering to mediate between India and Pakistan described the problem in his typically simplistic manner: “Kashmir is a very complicated place. You have Hindus and you have the Muslims and I wouldn’t say they get along so great.”

The politics of grievance have also had a profound effect on relations between India and Pakistan. Indians justify their outrage on Pakistan’s inaction on bringing the perpetrators of the 2008 Mumbai terrorist attacks to justice. There is strong evidence that individuals belonging to a Pakistan-based militant group carried out terrorist attacks. Pakistanis blame the rise of Hindu nationalism or Hindutva, a departure from India secular tradition, for the spate of violence against Muslims in India and the decision to change the status of Kashmir.

The responsibility to pick up the peace gauntlet falls to New Delhi and Islamabad. A good start would be for both sides to tone down the jingoistic rhetoric and start peace talks

Nonetheless, the now 73-year-old debate over historical right and wrong won’t change the realities facing the two countries. Over 20 percent of the population in both countries live in pathetic conditions, while the ever-increasing defense spending contributes to abject poverty and economic deprivation. India can’t go on disregarding the unquestionable disaffection of the people of Indian Kashmir from years of misrule and subjugation. Pakistan cannot match India’s growing economic, political, and military might. And the Kashmiri separatists demanding an independent or self-governing Kashmir are also not helping matters.

Still, the issues between India and Pakistan are not insolvable given political will and a firm desire to achieve peace and security. But that can happen only with both sides bridging divides. For the region, normalization of ties between India and Pakistan will help in reducing the US involvement in the quagmire in Afghanistan, the joint fight against terrorist groups like ISIS, and increasing trade and investment. But all this will always remain conditional on resolving the tricky Kashmir problem. This will require that both India and Pakistan climbdown from uncompromising positions.

For instance, Pakistan must drop its long-standing demand for a UN-sponsored plebiscite in Indian Kashmir. It must also accept that India will never agree to a Kashmir solution that involves handing over part of the territory it holds in Jammu and Kashmir to Pakistan.

Therefore, the most practical solution is to recognize existing borders in Kashmir. India should lift the siege conditions it has imposed in Kashmir and take political steps to integrate Muslims there who make up a majority in the valley and include them in joining India’s democratic mainstream. But to do that it must first address the fear that Indian minorities, particularly Muslims, have of the rising tide of Hindu nationalism.

Ultimately, the responsibility to pick up the peace gauntlet falls to New Delhi and Islamabad. A good start would be for both sides to tone down the jingoistic rhetoric and start peace talks. The world needs to support India and Pakistan to decrease the risk of nuclear war in the region and help the two neighbours resume negotiations. Taking small steps now to avert the worst outcomes from this dangerous confrontation is an investment well worth making.

The writer is a freelance contributor who has written on peace and security issues for many years