Daily Times

Ever since Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) was bumped up to become Crown Prince by his father King Salman, not long after he succeeded King Abdullah on his death at 90 years of age, much of the talk is around MBS who is now the effective ruler of the Saudi kingdom. There are reports that King Salman might be in an early stage of dementia. Whether true or not, he is an old man in his eighties and is depending on his son, MBS, to effectively rule the kingdom.

And MBS had to move fast to assert and secure his authority by arresting a number of power wielders in the kingdom to include some Saudi princes, media owners and billionaire businessmen on corruption charges, thus sequestering their wealth and making it known that there was a new political order in the kingdom and that its name was MBS.

Here we come to the US validation under Trump of the new Saudi order, with Trump reportedly tweeting, ” Some of those they have been harshly treating have been ‘milking’ their country for years!”

Commenting on this Trump tweet, the New York Times’ columnist, Thomas L. Friedman, wrote, “I could only laugh reading that tweet. Hearing that Saudi princes were arrested for ‘corruption’ is like reading that Donald Trump fired seven cabinet secretaries for ‘lying’.”

The new political order,both in the US and Saudi Arabia, seemed to suggest a shared propensity to control power and the narrative that goes with it.

Already, Trump has seen fit to veto congressional disapproval of the US military aid to Saudi Arabia in Yemen, which has caused so many civilian deaths and large-scale misery in Yemen

Even when Trump might have his reservations about MBS and his governance, that was irrelevant. For instance, when it came out that the murder of the Saudi journalist, Jamal Khashoggi, in the Saudi consulate in Turkey was done at the behest of MBS, Trump ignored it even when reportedly conceding that nothing happened there without MBS’s knowledge and authority.

Trump’s justification is that Saudi Arabia is too important with its large US arms purchases, exaggerating highly the sums involved; as well as its strategic importance, being a regional heavy weight and a counterpoint to Iran and its likely role in facilitating/coercing a settlement of the Palestinian question to Israel’s satisfaction.

And on the Palestinian question, Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, who is also his senior adviser, has developed close relationship with MBS. It is hoped that Saudi Arabia will be able to lean on the Palestinian authorities to take what they can get or virtually get lost.

It is the kind of take it or leave-it policy Trump is pursuing with Iran of economic strangulation. Iran is fighting back and the Palestinian authorities are also not keen on accepting an expanded Israeli occupation of their territory.

It would remain to be seen how this would work out with both Iran and Palestine!

With Crown Prince MBS’s active involvement in Trump’s regional projects, admittedly considered favorable to Saudi regional ambitions, Saudi Arabia is increasingly becoming part of political polarization within the US under Trump.

Before Trump arrived on the scene, there was broad consensus in the US policy on Saudi Arabia’s strategic connection, though Obama’s nuclear deal with Iran had made Riyadh unhappy.

Obviously, under the Trump administration Riyadh has a special connection of sorts at policy and personal levels. Trump has left no doubt that Saudi Arabia is the US’ favored policy destination in the region, may be second only to Israel.

And both Saudi Arabia and Israel are committed to the same objective, which is to bring Iran to its knees through economic strangulation and, if necessary and as a last resort, through military action blaming it on Iranian ‘aggression’ in one way or the other.

As earlier pointed out, Saudi Arabia’s facilitating/coercive role on the Palestinian question is very much appreciated. And in all this, personal chemistry between Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law and his senior adviser, and MBS is in an important factor, overriding relevant advisers and institutions on both sides, particularly on the US side, which has a well-established institutional system in place.

And it is such over-riding of the US channels of policy formulation where personal, in the person of Trump and his son-in-law, is becoming the norm rather than the exception, that the danger lies for Riyadh.

It is true that, in the short term, Saudi Arabia gains from such high level access in the US. But in the medium and long term, by becoming part of political polarization in the US, Saudi Arabia might suffer with a change of regime in the US.

Already, Trump has seen fit to veto congressionaldisapproval of the US military aid to Saudi Arabia in Yemen, which has caused so many civilian deaths and large-scale misery in Yemen.

As for the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, the Saudi journalist, in the Saudi consulate in Turkey, it is still an unsolved and raw issue that might be revived at any time.

It is important to note that Khasshogi was a US resident and a columnist for the Washington Post and his murder was criticized widely in the US.

Therefore, Saudi special connection with the Trump administration can play both ways, depending on which administration is in power in the US at a given time.

By becoming part of the political polarization in the US, Saudi Arabia is taking serious risk in medium and long term.

The internal power play in Saudi Arabia’s royal household is liable to manipulation by powerful external forces, like the US, at a time when the consensual succession order was flouted to bump up MBS.

The writer is a senior journalist and academic based in Sydney, Australia