Daily Times

In a strange twist of events, Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India looks more enthusiastic about negotiating the Kashmir dispute than Pakistan. Prime Minister Imran Khan now says negotiations will not be fruitful under the current circumstances. It was the other way around until recently.

Analysing the recent events can lead us to my calculated hypothesis that the environment appears to be more conducive in the region for bilateral talks on Kashmir than before. The theory looks farfetched under the current saber-rattling between the two countries; nevertheless, it is based on factual ground realities.

I would argue that Narendra Modi’s recent decision to revoke article 370 of the Indian constitution, merging Kashmir with India as a union territory, might be a calculated move to resolve the issue on his terms.

Against this backdrop, recent media reports have confirmed that Narendra Modi and Imran Khan discussed Kashmir on the sideline of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in the Kyrgyz capital of Bishkek last June. The meeting between the two leaders was intentionally kept secret and dubbed as an informal “handshake”.

Additionally, Imran Khan’s statement on his arrival back home after the US trip further elucidated the situation when he suggested a possible solution to the Kashmir issue. He said the Pakistani administered territory of Kashmir, Gilgit-Baltistan should be merged with Pakistan and the Indian administered territory of Ladakh with India.

India’s willingness to negotiate the dispute is a positive development but Delhi should realize that peace negotiations and the ongoing violence in Kashmir cannot go hand in hand. The next possible step to start bilateral talks must include creating the right environment in the region and normalize the situation in the Valley

Amazingly, this is almost what Modi has achieved by de-operationalizing article 370. Under the new arrangements, India has conveniently divided Kashmir into two union territories: Ladakh with no legislature and the Kashmir Valley with a legislative assembly.

But why India and Pakistan would be interested in resolving the longstanding dispute at this historical juncture? It looks this is the right time to have an agreement between both countries on the future of Kashmir.

Here is one convincing reason. Just after his overwhelming victory in Indian elections, Modi declared in his speech in parliament that India has regional inspirations. To make India an uncontested leader of South Asia, Modi must resolve territorial disputes. In fact, he has been busy during his last term to resolve disputes with neighboring countries, including the border dispute with Bangladesh.

Modi being a savvy political leader, knows that the Kashmir conflict poses a monumental challenge for India in becoming a regional power.

Pakistan also has its own internal challenges which need a resolution of the Kashmir issue. The Gilgit-Baltistan area of Kashmir under the Pakistani administration is a critical part of the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project.

Until it remains a disputed territory, international companies will be hesitant to invest here. That explains why Pakistan is desperate to declare Gilgit-Baltistan as its territory.

There have been several attempts in the past to resolve the dispute, but despite the intentions of political leaders, the Pakistani military establishment has been opposing any agreement on the issue without its blessing.

For the first time in the history of Pakistan, the military establishment and civilian government are on the same page, which offers a unique opportunity for negotiating a possible solution to the Kashmir issue.

However, the emotionally charged public opinion created by political leaders in both countries has shaped a national psyche that refuses any compromise on Kashmir. It has become a crucial task for both countries to initiate a publicly acceptable solution to the Kashmir issue.

India’s willingness to negotiate the dispute is a positive development but Delhishould realize that peace negotiations and the ongoing violence in Kashmir cannot go hand in hand. The next possible step to start bilateral talks must include creating the right environment in the region and normalize the situation in the Valley.

Article 370 or not, Kashmir has been practically a colonized region under the oppressive Indian rule. Elections have been manipulated and state governments were formed and ousted as Delhi wished.

Kashmir has become one of the world’s highly militarized zone and has become a virtual jail for its citizens. According to a Stimson Center study, 658 Kashmiris were killed from 2002 to 2013 in nonstate conflicts. This does not include casualties as part of clashes between the Indian forces and citizens.

Any future negotiations on Kashmir should not exclude Kashmiris, the real stakeholders of the conflict who have been suffering for the last 72 years with a tremendous loss of human life and socio-economic hardships.

The writer is (Ph. D.) currently works in Washington DC as a consultant on South Asian affairs