Daily Times

What prompted the Modi government to take such a drastic measure by revoking Article 370 which allowed specific rights to the Kashmiri people. What was the hurry? Kashmiris were not running away with their geography or had attained the necessary wherewithal to declare Azadi; they were still under strict Indian control exercised through worst kind of human rights abuses reiterated by the UN Human Rights Commission report released six weeks ago.

In the neighbourhood, there was no threat either from Pakistan or China, two formidable adversaries to the Indian geo-strategic interests. However, there was one major embarrassment for India which may have prompted Modi government to take the dangerous step of annulling Article 370; Indian isolation in the fast moving US-Taliban peace talks turned out to be a major source of embarrassment as India could not find a place at the high table. In fact, through its subversive approach towards the Taliban throughout the Afghan crisis, India bought isolation that deprived it a place at the high table. Secondly, the US withdrawal and ascension of Taliban as a major stakeholder caused India’s unceremonious exit from Afghanistan for the foreseeable future which could have been a huge loss to its subversive intelligence network against Pakistan which it has been conducting with the assistance of Afghan intelligence, NDS.

The Indian machination is further endorsed by the State Department’s denial that India did not inform or consult the State Department before announcing the revocation of Article 370. It also expressed concern over the evolving situation in the region and urged Pakistan and India to exercise restraint. The tone of the State Department’s statement makes it clear that had India informed the former about its intentions of revoking the Article 370 the US would have advised against it at a time when Afghan talks were at a crucial stage of culmination.

Simultaneously, in Pakistan, a bunch of hypertensive analysts are going hysteric in suggesting the government to make Pakistan’s cooperation on the Afghan peace talks conditional with good Indian behaviour. They argue that revocation of Article 370 offers a valid pretext to slow down on Afghanistan and push the Americans to pressurize the Indians to behave. It is also being suggested that now is the time to remind President Trump to make good of his promise of mediation with India on Kashmir.

Pakistan should not allow emotional outbursts to influence its endeavours for peace and stability in Afghanistan. Prudence demands that we should secure our western borders and deal with the Indian front in accordance with the evolving situation

Should Pakistan buy the Indian bait and make its cooperation on Afghanistan conditional to good Indian behaviour? This would be a big mistake and a walk into the Indian trap. Peace in Afghanistan would mean that Pakistan’s western borders would be comparatively safer than before. Therefore, after Afghanistan, Pakistan would be the major beneficiary of peace in Afghanistan. It would open up more avenues for trade and economic activity not only in Afghanistan and Pakistan but the entire Central Asian region. China-Pakistan Economic Corridor(CPEC) would receive further boost and could be extended to Central Asia and beyond. A peaceful Afghanistan would enjoy support from the neighbourhood including China, Iran and Russia.

However, there is another side of the picture which portrays a nightmarish scenario for India, especially in the context of Indian Occupied Kashmir. First, obviously briefed by the establishment, Indian analysts have expressed the concern that peace in Afghanistan would mean that Taliban would be able to spare many thousands of its soldiers and “Jihadis from Pakistan” to intrude into the Indian Occupied Kashmir (IOK). This would give momentum to Kashmiri freedom movement at a time when Mr. Modi is riding high on Hidutva wave of hatred against Muslims.

Second, during meeting with Prime Minister Imran Khan, President Trump’s disclosure that Mr. Modi sought his help to mediate between Pakistan and India on Kashmir proved to be a bombshell for the Indian government. Since Mr. Modi himself couldn’t deny despite opposition’s demand, abrogation of Article 370 was an appropriate response to Mr. Trump.

Third, not only that, President Trump’s statement pointed a linkage between peace in Afghanistan and overall stability of South Asia which according to Pakistan’s narrative is being jeopardized due to India’s spoiler role in Afghanistan by supporting forces inimical to Pakistan and instrumental in facilitating Indian cash and kind largesse for the dissidents in Balochistan and Tehrik Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Therefore, declaration of Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) as terrorist organization one week before Imran Khan’s visit to Washington was a signal by the Trump Administration to India to mend its ways and stay away from Afghanistan. A peaceful Afghanistan would block India’s future activities against Pakistan through the Afghan soil.

Fourth, President Trump’s offer came at a wrong time for India when a couple of weeks ago UN Human Rights Council (UNHRC) in its Review Report held India responsible for the continued human rights violations in the Indian Occupied Kashmir (IOK) and reiterated its demand for access to the occupied state to conduct an inquiry into the gross human rights violations. This was the second report in one year; last year in June, the UNHRC issued its pioneering report about the gross human rights violations in IOK since the inception of this body two decades ago. India has been thwarting earlier attempts by the UNHRC to report on the human rights situation in the occupied state.

Finally, with the deployment of many thousand troops and resorting to worst kind of lockdown and complete media blackout Modi government may have created a façade of normalcy in the occupied state. But the moot question is what a few thousand additional troops would achieve where 700,000 Indian troops have failed during the past three decades of repression and worst kind of human rights violations in the occupied state? Well, apparently not much unless Mr. Modi borrows expression from President Trump on “wiping out Afghanistan from the face of the earth” and actually launch a scorched earth blitz in the occupied state. In that case, Mr. Modi must have calculated the risks involved and Pakistan’s likely reaction.

While Pakistan has taken certain measure at the diplomatic level including downgrading of relations with India and convening of the UN Security Council’s emergency consultations on situation in Jammu and Kashmir with the assistance of China, the coming days and weeks would be crucial for Pakistan’s diplomacy to sensitize the world towards the gravity of the situation and counsel Mr. Modi to avoid the suicidal course which the forces of Hindutva are trying to unleash through the promotion of their fascist agenda of hatred, casteism and racism. More importantly, Pakistan should not allow emotional outbursts to influence its endeavours for peace and stability in Afghanistan. Prudence demands that we should secure our western borders and deal with the Indian front in accordance with the evolving situation.

Author is former ambassador of Pakistan to Iran and UAE