Daily Times

It’s unclear what the implication of India’s decision to abrogate Article 370/35A are going to be for India, Kashmir, and the region. What is certain is that the way abrogation of the Article 35A and 370 is going to alienate the Kashmiri population further. The detention of more than 4000 Kashmiri leaders over the last weeks indicate that New Delhi is clearly worried about the swelling rage in the valley. While commenting on India’s decision, Mehbooba Mufti, President of the Jammu and Kashmir Democratic Party, said that “What did J&K get for acceding to India? Another partition along the communal lines? Our special status is not a gift bestowed upon us. It’s a right guaranteed by the Indian constitution and the parliament. A contract entered by J&K leadership and India which BJP has taken away.”

The article’s abrogation means that India will have unchecked access to and ownership of Kashmiri land. Moreover, after the abrogation, Kashmiri political leadership will not any say in any major issue related to Kashmir’s defense, foreign affairs, and finance. For Kashmiris, this is a direct attack on the political status of the region and the demography of the valley. Arguably, Article 370 and 35A were the only constitutional arrangement that India used to regulate its protracted stay in Jammu and Kashmir.

By all standards the situation in Indian occupied Kashmir and around the Line of Control is going to complicate rapidly. In the coming weeks and months, the risks of clashes between Pakistan and India’s forces will grow significantly. For Islamabad, it’s now clear that India’s decision to deploy thousands of troops was not because of the cross-border terror threat but due to the incoming decision to change the constitutional status of Kashmir. In this regard, Pakistan has already issued a warning: Pakistan’s foreign office in a recent statement said that that the country intends to “exercise all possible options to counter the illegal steps taken” by India.

It’s clear that while efforts on diplomatic level are crucial, Islamabad needs to engage adequate support base for Kashmiri to frustrate India’s occupation and highlight the dispute as a threat to international peace and stability

From here onward, Pakistan is going to rely on two major policy measures to frustrate India’s policy and presence in Kashmir.

First, in the coming days and weeks, Pakistan is going to make sure that the international community endorses the former’s stance over the issue of Kashmir and demonizes India’s recent actions. This has already been demonstrated by Pakistan by downgrading diplomatic ties with India and cancelling all trade links. Particularly, Pakistan would like to enlist the support of Washington as the latter’s support can still create adequate troubles for New Delhi. In this regard, Pakistan is going to make sure that Washington sees the Kashmir situation as an irritant to the ongoing Afghan peace process which is taking away Pakistan’s focus to its Eastern border. Washington is in a tough spot as it neither wants to confront openly India over the issue nor does it want to derail the progress concerning the Afghan peace process where Pakistan’s role has become central. It’s unlikely that Pakistan will have resounding success with this option.

Second, it’s likely that in the coming weeks and months we may see the resumption of resistance movement in Kashmir or over the line of control. However, for now, any noticeable activity in this regard is not going to help Pakistan’s case internationally. It’s unlikely that Pakistan wants to be seen as helping any resistance elements for reasons related to the country’s engagement’s abroad and counterterrorism operations domestically. Amidst this situation, Islamabad needs to know that any militant activity in the coming weeks will have a direct impact on the security situation on both sides of the Line of control. India, on its part, will make an attempt to local Kashmiri resistance is painted as a handy work of Islamabad. However, Pakistan needs to make sure that the world sees the situation as another episode of local resistance aimed at tackling India’s occupation.

It’s clear that while efforts on diplomatic level are crucial, Islamabad needs to engage adequate support base for Kashmiri to frustrate India’s occupation and highlight the dispute as a threat to international peace and stability. It’s expected that any major decision concerning Pakistan’s decision to assist Kashmiri resistance cannot and should not be taken off the table. The issue of Kashmir is here to stay as long as its permanent and acceptable solution is not found. States blaming Pakistan for getting isolated on Kashmir do not understand the nature of the conflict. Pakistan and Kashmiris are here for a protracted campaign. The costs for New Delhi will be unbearable.

The writer is a freelance journalist