Kashmir, war and diplomacy — India will concede

Author: Osama Rizvi

It has been termed as one of the worst blackouts with even one way communication such as TVs being blocked. India’s action has drawn calumny from The Guardian, The Economist, Washington Post, New York Times and all other mainstream media outlets. Reporters from international media agencies have witnessed the sorry state of affairs and human rights abuse happening in Kashmir firsthand. A recently published report mentions horrors that the Kashmiris are being subjected to.

Rape, sodomy and waterboarding among other torture methods are common. For a country that often brandishes being the world’s largest democracy such cold-hearted behavior is deplorable and full of irony leading to shame. People interviewed say that they cannot even go out to buy necessities like milk and bread! Ask Indian politicians who say that this action would help in the region’s development—a risible proposition! Should there be a war between the countries? No. Will there be a war? Let’s hope, not. But what is happening in Kashmir should be stopped very soon and for good. What is the best way to do that? The one Pakistan has already been treading upon, yes, diplomatic. At the diplomatic front China can prove to be a huge help. When it comes to the Kashmir issue, the region’s significance for China gets commensurate attention as ours.

India and China are in a race to be the superpower in the Eastern Hemisphere. However, with these fascist tactics, mob lynching, religious extremism and maddening chauvinism it is losing all the trappings of being one. India is also a U.S. ally one that borders China and could be used as a strategic weight against the latter. There are many geopolitical points that would concern China as well. But in many cases the Middle Kingdom has the upper hand.

An escalation, either in the form of heated rhetoric, or worst, a military buildup will not only be devastating for Pakistan and India but for regional stability. This is a nuclear flashpoint and the contiguity of the region manifests a huge demographic heft hence any war, military action, could lead to an unimaginable catastrophe

Let’s start with the Brahmaputra river. It flows from Himalayas and later meets Ganges River and finally empties into the Bay of Bengal. It passes through Tibet (Autonomous region of China) and then to Arunachal Pradesh and Assam. The river originates from Chemayungdung Glacier located in southwest Tibet hence giving China control over it. The river is very important for irrigation and power generation in India. China can use its position of controlling the headwaters of this river to put some pressure on India if push comes to shove. Other venues are Siligiru Corridor, Doklam Plateau and CPEC. Each gives China a greater stake in the region and why the issue of Kashmir is of paramount importance and relevance to the country.

India’s action was buffoonish if viewed from a strategic prism.Repealing laws of a disputed and controversial region wasn’t going to get support from anyone and if Indians thought it would go unnoticed then they were being delusional. The ineptness of the policy is blatant when we hear Indian politicians making utterly irrelevant claims of Kashmir being a destination for shooting movies or when they refer to its development. They lost the case the moment they annulled the articles 370 and 35 A. How can human rights abuse, total communication blackouts and a curfew be a recipe for development?

It is not wrong to hope that India will cede the occupied territory but taking a rather pragmatic stance what we can be more hopeful about is that it will give back the autonomy to the people of Kashmir. There are no grounds on which India can defend, justify or explain her treatment of Kashmiris. If pressure continues to mount, through United Nations Security Council and from China, U.S. and Russia with which India has considerable amount of trade, and lastly if India behaves logically then they will, and they should take back their decision.

An escalation, either in the form of heated rhetoric, or worst, a military buildup will not only be devastating for Pakistan and India but for regional stability. This is a nuclear flashpoint and the contiguity of the region manifests a huge demographic heft hence any war, military action, could lead to an unimaginable catastrophe.

Pakistan should continue tapping international media and diplomatic corridors making a strong case for Kashmir. India would only be hurting herself through such actions. The world, I hope, is not too blind to overlook the humanitarian crisis unfolding in Kashmir.

The writer is an economic and geopolitical analyst

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