Daily Times

Insurgency can only be dealt when the local people are offered better alternatives, new avenues, acceptable options and abundant opportunities by the state. Insurgency inevitably dies, when the insurrectionist narrative is academically challenged and intellectually countered. Increasing boots on ground and adding number of rifles to suppress an uprising has never been a successful approach. Goliathic size, strength and terror has never been sufficient to defeat visibly weak and seemingly vulnerable Davids throughout the history.

Kashmir has always been a problem for India but thanks to brute military tactics and consequential violent response by freedom fighters, it has come under international focus. After failure of diplomatic blitz aimed at Pakistan’s isolation and recent US President’s mediation offers, Indian military is about to unfold a new restorative rather a punitive operation in Kashmir. But it is not the only place where Indian government is struggling to maintain its writ as many others, another simmering trouble in the North East India is brewing and survived military operations for decades.

While over half a million Indian soldiers are awaiting induction of another 25000 troops of civil armed forces in Kashmir, casualties (both civilian and military) are being reported from Maoist infested north eastern states in India. A proletarian revolution trying to naturally establish a people’s system of leadership has been fermenting in the North East challenging governments’ writ. This insurgency is the worst and steadily worsening of conflict in India as accepted by country’s political leadership where the government is losing both men as well as ground on daily basis. The insurgency in North East has been the greatest source of concern for India which has claimed more than 20,000 lives and has been active for nearly five decades. In 2019 alone, so far 107 persons have been killed in left-wing extremism linked violence while the number will rise as the year ends.

Situation is not encouraging for the government. On one side, likes of Burhan Wani are retaliating against repression and tyranny in held valley while on the other Naxalites and Maoists are responding with matching fierceness to intrusive cordon and search operations by government forces. Security forces are bringing all the brute force to control the Maoist trouble. As noted by Arundatti Roy, besides conventional fire power, atrocities such as rape are also being used as a force multiplier against the locals. Due to better media regulation by government in these states, events happening here make fewer headlines. Whether reported or not, it remains a fact that the government is suffering incomparable number casualties on daily basis.

Unlike the motivation for freedom in Kashmir, the subsistence of Naxalism since 1967 can be attributed mostly to socio-economic factors. The Naxalite movement exploited the widespread discontentment and frustration amongst poor and landless peasants to motivate them to take up arms against higher-caste landlords and moneylenders. Although indigenous in nature, the movement did attract some attention from China, Nepal and Sri Lanka for its cause thus making it a difficult case of India to handle. But still being a non-separatist struggle, it was easy to be dialogued and managed as compared to Kashmir. However, as of today the Naxalites operate in 160 districts in India, some of these adversely affected with violence. Successes obtained by putting more Border Security Force on ground could not bring permanent peace and the “balloon effect” helped insurgents to survive. Thus insurgency in North Eastern states remains protracted as insurgents have defied writ of Indian state for a long period just like the protracted freedom struggle in Jammu and Kashmir. Both of these insurgency have managed to outlive “neutralizing strategy” of state police, para military forces, regular army regiments, specialized units and managed to subsist, resist and inflict losses.

Instead of giving a political reformation a chance that could alleviate the simmering discontent amongst the masses, Indians have used rifles, pellet guns and coercive tactics against its own citizens making it further difficult for themselves to quell these movements

Over the last few days, while turning a blind eye to the “Red Intifada” in north east, Indian Army is trying to focus on “Green Intifada” in Kashmir. Indian Artillery is relentlessly pounding line of control and targeted population with cluster bombs. Artillery shells also landed some 18 miles inside Pakistani territory. The Indian military’s visible aim seems to keep line of control active so that no infiltration or exfiltration takes place while the government in Indian Held Kashmir gears up to conduct a large scale operation. The newly inducted 25000 troops are likely to relieve Army units deployed on static locations enabling them to conduct specialized operation against insurgents. These regular units would be also available if India misguidedly makes an incursive plan across the line of control which would cost it beyond its expectation. However, most of these relieved units would be deployed to sanitize villages, towns and cities. Operations in urban areas would be a nightmare for these troops since insurgents enjoy local support and can offer stiff resistance. Indian Army would try to flush insurgents out of towns and cities forcing them into jungles where they will track, isolate then neutralize them.

Indian military operations in Kashmir as well as North Eastern states have been indiscriminate which has further fuelled these reactionary movements. Instead of giving a political reformation a chance that could alleviate the simmering discontent amongst the masses, Indians have used rifles, pellet guns and coercive tactics against its own citizens making it further difficult for themselves to quell these movements. It also needs to be noted that these insurgencies are guerrilla warfare based, hence it is difficult for an army unit with regular organization and equipment to respond to unconventional threat.

As appealed by leadership in Kashmir, situation in Kashmir is likely to trigger a humanitarian crises. Pakistan must play its role involving international community, watch dogs and peace guarantors including United Nations. It is for sure that this military action will never bring permanent peace in valley but could further fuel the struggle. Survival as well as confluence of Green Intifada in Kashmir and the parallel “Red uprising” in the North East would be worst case scenario for India. It will add several decades to the life span of these movements and would encourage other fissiparous tendencies that are dormant so far.

Writer is a versatile analyst and a speaker on contemporary issues