Daily Times

Pakistan-Russia relations can best be summarised as a narrative of mutual misunderstandings and miscalculations; that of wasting opportunities due to drifting policies of the two states under geopolitical realities of the Cold War period. History is witness to the fact that their ties mostly remained at the low ebb with a few exceptions of economic, trade and investment cooperation during the 1960s and 1970s. Following the brief period of Pakistan-Russia rapprochement in post-Cold War era, the time to fortunate opportunities is again ticking off in the post 9/11 era; offering both Moscow and Islamabad to act rationally under their common strategic and economic interests and stances on matters involving regional and international sensitivities, specifically the Afghanistan quagmire and the consequent spate of terrorism. In fact, it is the post-2014 regional security paradigm of Central and South Asian region, which is converging both Pakistan and Russia, especially in the backdrop of a sudden rise of Daesh in Afghanistan that raises serious concerns for Russia to seek enhanced cooperation with Pakistan.

In reality, Russia acknowledges Pakistan’s indispensability in bringing enduring peace and stability in Afghanistan. Both Moscow and Islamabad desire economic collaboration in Central Asia. Russian investment in Pakistan is crucial for relieving, to a certain extent, Pakistan’s economy from its dependence on aid. Russia also desires to have good relations with Pakistan considering the latter’s geostrategic location. It wishes to generate a multilateral economic space for Moscow in the unipolar world, led by American unilateralism, which seeks a status-quo in the global political order. Undeniably, constraints are visible in modelling the structure of this rapprochement. For instance, the US and India express displeasure over the intimacy of Pak-Russia ties. However, this relationship holds robust prospects in moving Islamabad to Moscow to avoid international isolation and to explore strategic diversification of its diplomatic focus beyond the time-tested ties with China. On diplomatic frontiers of Pakistan, the significance of Russia as a regional partner of Pakistan could not be undermined considering Russia’s stature being a major regional and world power, besides holding a key role in the UN Security Council (UNSC).

The latest is a testimonial to warming up of their bilateral relations, as witnessed in top-tier political and diplomatic engagements. The rationale behind a reset in Pakistan-Russia relations might be that President Putin is urging Moscow to reiterate its role in its immediate (Baltic, Caucasian and the Central Asia) and distant regions (South Asia and the Middle East) of interest. Likewise, Islamabad is all geared to explore new vistas of strategic cooperation to reduce its critical dependencies on the US and the West, particularly in the face of the fact that the US transformed its traditional balancing role towards South Asia (SA) and stalled the military sales to Pakistan.

Russia acknowledges Pakistan’s indispensability in bringing enduring peace and stability in Afghanistan

The current level of convergence between Russia and Pakistan may gain gradual heights; propelling both the countries to lay the foundation of a new era of friendship. Determinants of this friendship appear to be the emerging inter-regional economic prospects under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Eurasian Economic Community (EurAsEC) including its successor Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). It also includes moves amidst the shifting geopolitical settings like emerging strategic disequilibrium especially in SA in the backdrop of enhanced strategic cooperation between India and the US; Pakistan’s crucial role in Central and South Asian security environment; containment of Russian resurgence and sanctions on Pakistan by the US; and the simultaneously growing threats of extremism, terrorism, human trafficking, narco-smuggling, etc.

In all, these shifts endanger the stability in Central and South Asia, in particular, and the Eurasia region, in general.

The recent phase in Pakistan-Russia relations seems to be ready to exploit the current convergence of interests; taking their relations on an upward trajectory. Several opportunities exist in front of them and the probability of employing all of the potential areas is realistic. That is why rapprochement in the field of economy, energy, investment and counter-terrorism is evident with a potential to flourish by leaps and bounds. Whereas, the present defence cooperation would gradually grow in the coming years from being limited to broader defence cooperation, specifically in the backdrop of Pakistan’s counter-terrorism efforts. Though the challenges to Pakistan-Russia rapprochement are a hard nut to crack. Yet, the new geostrategic realities hold much in store for both Moscow and Islamabad in opting the mutual course of action on regional and international fronts.

The writer is a research officer at the Islamabad Policy Research Institute