Daily Times

On return from Washington, Imran Khan, IK, is brimming with confidence and crowing of his “victory”. He claims to have won the World Cup again, implying he has avenged Pakistan’s Cricket Team’s humiliation at the hands of the Indian team. Indeed he has the privilege of getting Trump to agree to mediation on the Kashmir dispute. Trump says he was first asked by Modi. As expected, Modi denies asking Trump?

Is this an IK victory or is IK blowing his own trumpet prematurely or, is he among those who feel they need that their selection board needs to be ratified by the US? Any man of wisdom would have advised the Khan to crow softly and with caution lest he be embarrassed. But, perhaps he is impervious to embarrassment. Let us attempt to find answers to some of the questions that arise?

Can Trump afford to withdraw from Afghanistan, defying his entire establishment?

In the Indo-Pak context, after Gen Musharaf took over the country, Indians claimed that Musharaf alone could negotiate on Kashmir. The assumption was that since he was concurrently COAS, he was deemed to be well right of center and his overtures would not be considered treachery. The same logic applied to Vajpayee’s “Bus Yatra” to Lahore and, now to Modi, both being from the hardline BJP.

The same reasoning applies to all other countries, including the US. “Only Nixon could have withdrawn from the embarrassment of Vietnam”, is oft-repeated. The same is now true of Trump. He too could do so. And, if there were any doubt of his credentials, he reasserted them by threatening to destroy Afghanistan within a week, days before IK’s visit. So, he certainly can, but will he? Most Pakistani analysts caution that the basic irritant remains. Strategic interests of both countries on Afghanistan are not merely out of sync, they are often conflicting. Furthermore, they contend Pakistan no longer has the clout to deliver the Taliban to the negotiating table[this might no longer be accurate].

Trump’s assertion and India’s denial reconfirms the necessity for inquiring if the venerable IK considers Trump or the US will be an honest broker on Kashmir. Has Trump held out a carrot to the PM, or is he holding out a poisoned chalice?

But let’s review recent history. In the run-up to his election, Trump successfully tapped the hitherto untapped vote bank of the rednecks in US but, he garnished their vote as well as other anti-establishmentarians by continuously challenging the establishment. And yet, after his election, Trump succumbed to every wish of the establishment; until he announced his intent to withdraw from Afghanistan. On all previous occasions, similar announcements by US presidents were met with some opposition. This time? Nary a peep from any direction. Is that silence merely pregnant or ominously pregnant?

Trump is generally acknowledged to have a good chance to win a second term. However, if he commits to conclude the Afghan war with a semblance of dignity i.e. a withdrawal that does not stink of defeat, his victory in the forthcoming elections becomes a virtual certainty. If that be so, having won his second term, could he again succumb to the US establishment and renege on his promise to withdraw from Afghanistan? I don’t know, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he did. If the current silence of opposition stems from the knowledge that the actual withdrawal will not occur; then it is indeed ominous.

Another word of caution please.

Trump’s assertion that Modi was the first to request his mediation on the Kashmir issue, does not necessarily make his assertion true. And, Indian denial that Modi requested US mediation on Kashmir, does not make Trump’s assertion untrue. For his domestic audience, Modi would deny making this request whether he actually made it or not. In this instance, however, I would tend to believe Trump rather than the Indian denial. Trump’s assertion and India’s denial reconfirms the necessity for inquiring if the venerable IK considers Trump or the US will be an honest broker on Kashmir. Has Trump held out a carrot to the PM, or is he holding out a poisoned chalice?

I don’t know the answer to that question either. But, I don’t trust the US and, I trust Trump even less. I am sure many have forgotten the recent past but those of us who have worn a uniform haven’t. Three incidents of 2011 come to mind as examples.

In exchange for the release of Raymond Davis, Pakistan insisted that all CIA agents leave Pakistan. On the day after Davis’ release, March 17 2011, Leon Panetta, then Director CIA, avenged the insult caused to the US by our insistence on getting CIA agents to leave, and a drone strike killed forty odd unarmed civilians who were attending a Jirga. On May 1, US troops entered our country and killed Osama bin Laden in Abbottabad. Our PM now tells us that the ISI was the one that provided CIA the intelligence of his location. In my book, published 2012, on the incident, I said the same and explained why. ISI had indeed shared this information with CIA on the understanding that the two countries would undertake a joint operation but US decided to do so unilaterally to embarrass the Pakistan military and succeeded in both purposes.

Finally, in November, US helicopters targeted and killed every single one of the twenty four soldiers manning Salala Post, in what was a virtual Turkey Shoot; again to embarrass the Pakistan military; and did. Can this US be an honest broker on Kashmir, particularly when it has been first approached by Modi?

The writer is a retired brigadier. He is also former vice president and founder of the Islamabad Policy Research Institute (IPRI)