Daily Times

Pak-US bilateral relationship has always been need-based and transactional. It lacked sincerity and mutual trust. US engaged Pakistan whenever it needed and left as the needful is done. Not only did the US leave Pakistan, as the Prime Minister of Pakistan Imran Khan recently said during a talk in Washington DC, it sanctioned Pakistan.

Despite being member of the CETO and CENTO, Pakistan was not helped during the wars of 1965 and 1971 with its arch rival India. Pakistan played the role of front-line state against the former Soviet Union, when the arch rival of US got defeated; it left the Pakistan in a mess and went away. The US also imposed crippling sanctions on Pakistan.

Then happens the nine eleven. Pakistan was forced to join the US-led coalition against terrorism. It played the role of front-line state against terrorism and was crucial to Al Qaeda defeat in Afghanistan. Pakistan lost more than one hundred and twenty billion US dollars in economy and lost more than seventy thousand lives. Pakistan’s role was not acknowledged, it was blamed instead for US failure in Afghanistan.

Then come the Trump era with more difficulties for Pakistan. Not only Pakistan was blamed publicly by the US President Donald Trump, it was stripped of the US civil and military aid and the coalition support fund- the reimbursement to Pakistan for counter-terrorism operations.

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan’s recent official visit to US brings a thaw in the bilateral relations between the two countries. The visit dubbed many a great success, have raised some very important questions: a) how long would new romance between the former strategic partners lost?; b) will Pakistan be able to deliver what is expected with regards to Afghan peace process; c) how will the renewed Pak-US relations impact Pakistan’s relations with regional countries, especially China, Russia and Iran.

Despite being the strategic partner of China, Pakistan is compelled to engage the US to avoid retaliation on the international forums in issues like FATF or dealing with the international financial institutions like IMF and the World Bank

The optics of the PM Khan’s visit to US was good: Pakistan’s constructive role in the Afghan peace process was acknowledged; it was recognized as a stakeholder to Afghan issue; President Trump offered mediation on the longstanding issue of Kashmir quickly denied and rejected by the India; both the countries better understood each other’s perspective; Pakistan’s leadership was lauded by the US president; mistrust gave way to trust and dependability.

Despite good optics, no tangible major breakthrough in Pak-US bilateral relations could emerge: neither was a joint statement issue, nor US made any major commitment to Pakistan with respect to aid or trade. President Trump made it clear that he wants Pakistan to help US extricate from Afghanistan; bring Taliban to negotiating table with the Afghan government.

PM Imran Khan’s visit was an acknowledgement to Pakistan’s role to bring the Taliban to negotiating table. The US-Taliban have engaged in seven rounds of talks. Both the parties have agreed to: 1) To eradicate terrorism from Afghanistan and get insurance from the Taliban to not use Afghan land for terrorism in future;2) withdrawal of all foreign troops from Afghan 3) intra-Afghan dialogue , and 4) a permanent ceasefire in Afghanistan.

The US and the Taliban have agreed in principal to first two points but there are disagreements with regards to last two points. The Taliban call the Afghan government of Ashraf Ghani a puppet regime and are not ready to directly negotiate with them. The US wants Pakistan to make the Taliban agree to include Ghani government in intra-Afghan dialogue. PM Khan, in his talk at the US Institute of Peace said that he would go back and talk to the Taliban on the issue. Responding to Khan’s comments, the spokesperson of the Taliban negotiating team at Doha, said that they would happily go and meet with the Prime Minister of Pakistan if invited. He also showed readiness to include the Afghan Ghani government to intra-Afghan talks at a later stage.

For Pakistan, omen seems to be good as for bringing the Taliban to negotiating table with Ghani government. But then comes the thorny issue of permanent ceasefire. The US also want Pakistan to use its influence over the Taliban to agree to a permanent ceasefire during the negotiations. The Taliban have intensified the attacks inside Afghanistan during the past few weeks in a bid to get advantage at the negotiating table. For the Pak-US romance to continue, progress in the above two issue is paramount else the Trump’s famous U-turns could be on the cards. There are other stakeholders and influencers; Tehran and Moscow also have good influence over the Taliban. So ceasefire would also depend on how other stakeholders and regional players read the situation.

Islamabad also knows the possibility of a short-lived relationship with Washington. Despite being the strategic partner of China, Pakistan is compelled to engage the US to avoid retaliation on the international forums in issues like FATF or dealing with the international financial institutions like IMF and the World Bank. Islamabad also want to engage Washington bring a government in Kabul not hostile to Islamabad if not friendly to ensure stability and calm from its western flank.

Beijing, Moscow and Tehran all want US pullout from the region. All are involved in Afghan peace process. Islamabad might have taken its regional partners into confidence before engaging the US. Hence, the PM Khan’s visit does not mean Pakistan joining the US camp once again. Islamabad would remain the strategic partner of Beijing due to CPEC, and its relations with the Moscow would also keep the upward trajectory. Islamabad seems to have learnt a lesson from its one-dimensional foreign policy in the past, and therefore, bringing diversity and adding more dimensions to it.

As for the durability of this romance, it is expected to be short-lived. It is expected to last till the last US soldier leaves the Afghan soil. Washington seems in no mood to have a long and everlasting strategic partnership with Islamabad since it looks the region with Indian lens.

The writer is a journalist & analyst working at the International Desk of a news channel. He tweets at @kashifaliraza& can be reached at meetkashi514@gmail.com