Daily Times

Along with previously mentioned six points in first part, there is no dearth of opinions that argue that the Sino-Russian alliance is not sustainable in the long run. This view is based on the potential diverging long-term strategic interests of the two powers. For instance, Chinese growing influence in the Russian backyard of Central Asia is deemed as a long-term divergence. Already, trade between Central Asia and China had grown beyond $30 billion till 2017, compared with $18.6 billion between the same region and Russia. Central Asia is geographically important for China’s Belt and Road infrastructure initiative to build trade routes spanning Asia and beyond.

Another area of potential differences is the Chinese regional transport infrastructure plans, which include an “Ice Silk Road” initiative to build a shortcut between the Pacific Ocean and the Atlantic via the Arctic sphere. The project would run from the Sea of Okhotsk -located between Russia’s east coast and northern Japan; and, seen as a raw nerve of the Russian security establishment – to Europe through the Arctic Ocean.

The United States’ ability to deal with these challenges is commonly seen as in decline. Gone are the days of the Cold War’s strategic triangle. The U.S. enlisted China – and China enlisted the U.S. – as a partner in counter-balancing the Soviet Union during a period in which both countries saw the Soviet Union as the main threat to their security. Today both China and Russia view the U.S. as the main potential threat to their interests. In this context, Beijing and Moscow have a stable strategic partnership grounded in a geopolitical reality as well as numerous areas of convergence of economic, diplomatic, and security interests.

Many had argued that the ‘post-American world’ would emerge not by the decline of the United States, but by the “rise of the rest.” That world is indeed coming to fruition because other countries are prospering, and the U.S. is not developing proportionally. They will eventually catch up. The United States is the most important country in the world today; and will remain very important for many years by virtue of its huge economy and prodigious military capabilities. But its capacity to effectively adjudicate regional disputes or projecting power at every corner of the globe has been seriously undermined.

The changing international scenario also provides an opening to streamline our relations with Russia. The convergence of the Pakistani strategic interests with China and Russia provides an effective platform to transform our relations with Russia

Impact on Pakistan: The changing dynamics between China, Russia and the U.S. have huge implications for Pakistan. At the policy level, the change is immense. Relations with the U.S. had been a corner stone of Pakistan Foreign Policy since our inception. During the binary days of the Cold War, Pakistan and the U.S. mostly enjoyed strategic convergence. With the onset of the US ‘unipolar moment’, things started to change. And, with the phenomenal rise of China and the emerging multi-polarity, things became more complicated.

Pakistan’s interests in Afghanistan are multiple – and are mostly not in alignment with the US. Pakistan would want a stable and peaceful Afghanistan, which is also not unfriendly. Afghanistan is a vital component of the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), and without peace in Afghanistan, the progress of Pakistan is affected. The instability in Afghanistan, as we have experienced earlier, would always spill over to Pakistan. The presence of Daesh in Afghanistan is, hence, a worrisome phenomenon. There are concerns that the U.S. intelligence is using Daesh to instill instability in the wider region. This, besides Pakistan, would impact Russia, China and the Central Asian Republics (CARs).

As evident, the wider security and economic interests of Pakistan find resonance with China, and Russia. The relations between the “iron brothers” have been exemplary – and subject to much suspicion and criticism by the U.S. in particular and the Western block in general. With the increased belligerence in the Sino-American relations, Pakistan’s foreign policy establishment would have the unenviable task of balancing our relations with the U.S. and China. The importance of China in the development and economic progress of Pakistan – which is an overriding foreign policy concern – cannot be overstated. Keeping and nurturing a Sino-Pak strategic relationship, hence, is a strategic compulsion. The challenge, however, would be to keep the US engaged enough to preclude the possibility of any open conflict. Similarly, the importance of the US in the prevailing international economic architecture necessitates avoidance of an antagonistic relationship.

The most compelling consequence of the changing international scenario is in Pakistan’s relations with India. The Strategic Partnership between the U.S. and India was a consequence of the US policy to prop up India as a regional competitor of China. As India and Pakistan had been in a delicate regional balance, the new reality changed the South Asian political dynamics. The attitude of the re-elected Modi government towards Pakistan, inter alia, is a reflection of the enhanced Indian stature and support by the western countries. For an effective India policy, the first requirement is internal stability and economic strength. That, for the time being, is only envisaged through an effective Chinese partnership. With the eventual clear delineation of multi-polarity, the Indo-Pak relations would again evolve.

The changing international scenario also provides an opening to streamline our relations with Russia. The convergence of the Pakistani strategic interests with China and Russia provides an effective platform to transform our relations with Russia. And, the things are moving in that direction. Pakistan and Russia signed a defense cooperation agreement that led Russia to lift an arms embargo on Pakistan. Despite opposition by India, Russia finalized sale of Mi-35 combat helicopters to Pakistan, sold Russian RD-93 engines for use in its multirole JF-17 fighter jets, and so far held three joint military exercises in 2016, 2017 and 2018 named, Druzhba. Likewise, according to Russian media, Pakistan might be interested in purchase of Mi-28 & KA-52 Attack helicopters, Mi-17 transport helicopters, Su-30, Su-35, and Mig-35 aircrafts, Project 363 Diesel submarines, T-90 tanks, Pantsir Air Defence Combat Vehicle. Furthermore, Pakistan has also sought Russian economic investment as Russia and Pakistan signed a $2 billion deal in 2015 to develop 1100-kilometer gas pipeline from Karachi to Lahore – the largest economic deal between the two countries since the Soviet Union built the Pakistan Steel Mills in the 1970s. Thus, in regional security and stability context, Pakistan and Russia share some common interests to a great extent. Both countries should reach more frequently to each other in all domains to expand the bilateral relations (Concluded).

The writer has done MPA from Institute of Administrative Sciences (IAS) Lahore. He can be reached at saudzafar5@gmail.com