Daily Times

Many scholars believe that the future is Asian. The Indian Ocean is an immense maritime space of great geopolitical and geoeconomic importance.

It is a crossroad for sea trade that connects the advance economies of the East and the West. At the same time, there are also many factors that threaten its stability. These are often closely related to the international dynamics of the Asia-Pacific, to the point that the two areas can be considered a single reality.

On its western part, the Indian Ocean touches the shores of the vast African continent. This creates a peculiar mix of opportunities and challenges for coastal states like South Africa, Mozambique, Madagascar, Tanzania and Kenya. They can easily reach important economic areas such as India, the Middle East, Europe and the Asia-Pacific.

Engaging in maritime trade with these regions could provide a major economic boost to these African states and improve the living conditions of their citizens.

In addition, emerging powers, like China and India, are heavily spending in Africa to access its much-needed natural resources and exploit the opportunities for high investment returns.

Yet, in the case of China, this also raises concerns.

While African states welcome Chinese investments as they come with no legal precondition on the respect of civil and human rights, some worry that its economic penetration might result in political leverage and in the form of economic neocolonialism.

While African states welcome Chinese investments as they come with no legal precondition on the respect of civil and human rights, some worry that its economic penetration might result in political leverage and in the form of economic neocolonialism

There are also two states whose situation is particular.

The first is Ethiopia, the powerhouse of the Horn of Africa. Other states along the continent’s eastern coast can greatly benefit from international sea trade, but unfortunately, it is a landlocked country. This largely explains the recent deal it reached with Eritrea to settle their longstanding conflict; turning Eritrea into a friend would enable Ethiopia to access the sea and engage in maritime trade along one of the busiest routes in the world.

As a matter of fact, the red sea is an obligatory passage for ships between Europe and Asia. Ethiopia has even expressed its intention to build a navy, which is a clear sign of its seafaring ambitions. The second peculiar case in Somalia.

In theory, it is also poised to take advantage of its position on the Indian Ocean, but in practice, it is a failed state ruled by armed groups, where the central government has not enough power to pursue such maritime policy.

This raises the issue of the threats to sea trade along with the western shores of the Indian Ocean.

Somalia is a part of the problem, as it has become a hub of piracy.

The difficult economic conditions have pushed many Somalis to start attacking cargoes navigating along the country’s coasts. This became a serious problem that prompted the international community to organise a military operation to petrol the Somali waters and combat piracy.

These efforts succeeded in securing the area and reducing the number of attacks. As long as the socio-economic conditions of the coastal population do not improve, however, the risk of piracy would remain.

Two important chokepoints connect the Indian Ocean to the Mediterranean via the Red Sea, which could be considered the peripheral area of the Indian Ocean; putting it in communication with Europe. The Bab-el-Mandeb Strait and the Suez Canal.

Both passages are essential for sea trade, and any interruption would have a major impact on the global economy.

Located to the North, India is certainly the main regional player.

A large and fast-growing economy, it is one of the most important rising powers today and its influence is growing worldwide.

New Delhi considers the Indian Ocean as its maritime space, a vector for power projection and economic growth, but also an area to be preserved from the intromissions of hostile powers for the sake of national security.

India can enormously benefit from its position by protracting towards the ocean midway along the vital East-West sea lanes. In fact, it is already taking advantage of it. At the same time, by building a powerful navy, it can extend its power abroad and protect its interests. As a matter of fact, New Delhi is concerned over the presence of foreign actors in the Indian Ocean, most notably, Beijing.

China is indeed heavily investing in the region. Based on its Maritime Silk Road plan, it aims to create a string of ports to sustain trade with Europe. This is of central importance to China’s economy, which relies on sea trade for exporting goods and importing hydrocarbons. Some consider the real objective of the project is to extend its influence in the region by economic means. In a context of broader Sino-Indian rivalry, New Delhi worries about Beijing’s presence in countries like the Maldives or Sri Lanka; considering it a potential threat to its security. Similarly, India also unfavourably sees the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, which would connect the ocean via the Gwadar port.

There is also a strategic chokepoint to consider: the Hormuz Strait, which connects the Persian Gulf with the Indian Ocean.

This passage is vital for tankers carrying Middle Eastern Oil to Europe and Asia, and any interruption would have catastrophic economic consequences. Unfortunately, this is not a remote event. In the case of a serious standoff between the US and Iran, the strait would soon become a major flashpoint. Since Tehran’s deterrence strategy is largely based on blocking the Strait, it can do with relative ease due to geographic reasons.

To the East, the Indonesian Archipelago and Australia separate the Indian Ocean from the Pacific.

Similar to Somalia, the waters around Indonesia had become infested with pirates in the recent past, and the phenomenon has been reduced due to multilateral military and development efforts. Both countries benefit from their positions between the two oceans. It allows them to project their power in both directions to reach the large European and East Asian markets, and finally to access African with its resources and its potential for investments.

Many scholars believe the future is Asian, which is even the title of a recent book by Parag Khanna. But Asia’s rise largely depends on trade with Europe and on oil imports from the Middle East across the Indian Ocean. As such, Asian states have major strategic concerns in this area. China, Japan and South Korea need to keep the sea lanes open. India is an emerging power whose influence is growing across the world via the sea. Indonesia is the pivot connecting the Pacific and the Indian Oceans. The United States, the world’s primary security provider, is facing many challenges in both oceans and is committed to preserving the freedom of navigation. Moreover, the interests of various stakeholders in the area are sometimes colliding, like in the case of China and India. As such, with Asia’s importance growing every year in both economic and political terms, the Indo-Pacific is also gaining primary strategic relevance.

The writer is a bio-technologist and a columnist