Daily Times

Seemingly Islamabad has done the smart thing by opting to go to the Heart of Asia conference in Amritsar next week. It shows that Pakistan is sticking to the position it has held since Nawaz came back to power this time; that even in the face of hostilities it is stressing that only dialogue can take this particular process forward. And, therefore, it has opted to take the first step in an attempt to break the ice.

Yet, unfortunately, in the present setting this approach is not grounded in reality. Delhi has been turning up the heat, as expected, since the Modi administration’s first day in office. It has gone to the extent of breaking all long-standing diplomatic norms; like reminiscing about ’71 in Dhaka and openly threatening to ‘isolate Pakistan’ in the region and beyond before its time is up.

The few breathers that have come — like Modi’s surprise, apparent goodwill visit to Lahore, or the two PMs getting the two national security advisors to meet — took very little time to fizzle out.

The military escalation, too, is obviously well calculated. It’s not likely — as often portrayed in sections of the Pakistani media — that the Indians fired a mortar too many to stir things up and ended up biting more than they could chew. The Indians were aware that the transition in the Pak army leadership was building up. They also obviously understood that the army is more occupied on the western flank, especially in and around FATA, owing to Zarb-e-Azb compulsions. This is just one more subtle pawn move on the regional chess board that will strain Pakistan logistically even if it ends up costing India more in men and material.

There’s not really much Sartaj Aziz can say in Amritsar next week that they have not already factored in. He will, of course, be right in reminding his Indian counterparts that such conflicts inevitably lead to negotiations; and that is the only eventual solution. So why delay, especially since the cost is so high? But they have heard all this before, and simply dismissed it by saying that any talks must begin with terrorism. That, of course, is not the way Pakistan likes to look at things. If a historic thaw is to take place, it will be about core issues first. And that means Kashmir before everything else. Realistically, there is no way really that this impasse is breaking at the Heart of Asia.

Pakistan should, instead, be making a better case of Indian atrocities in Occupied Kashmir even as the border is alight. That, contrary to their calculated gamble at the LoC and Working Boundary, has really spun out of their control. And, unfortunately for the Indian government, this Kashmiri uprising, at least, was completely indigenous. Modi’s strong arm tactics have completely backfired. The curfew has been unable to calm the protestors. Delhi does not know how to take this forward. If it leans a little more towards aggression — beyond the pellet guns, etc, that have already been used to deadly effect — there is, for once, a real chance of the international community intervening meaningfully and forcefully. And if it backs down, it will not just lose face, but also the iron grip that it has maintained on Kashmir for decades.

So far, Pakistan’s response to this unfolding disaster has left little to be desired. The 22 or so envoys that the prime minister shuttled off to select capitals turned out a quick embarrassment, and were even more quickly forgotten. The fuss at the UN, too, did not cause any serious diplomatic movement internationally.

The problem lies in the Foreign Office, especially since it is being run by an absentee foreign minister for years. The prime minister, who has kept the foreign portfolio for himself, has been far too entangled in his own political survival — from Go Nawaz Go to Panamagate, etc — to give the Foreign Ministry the attention it deserves. It is a full time ministry, after all. And Sartaj Aziz and Tariq Fatemi have spent more time stumbling over each other than taking anything forward. It is difficult to quantify any bridges they have built or ice they might have broken successfully.

The prime minister must, therefore, immediately look towards putting the Foreign Office in order. And the first order of business must be appointing a dedicated foreign minister. The official machinery must then work to expose Indian excesses, especially over the last few months, and then detail how it is trying to shift attention by lighting up the border, and make sure the world sees and listens. That would provide much greater leverage to bring Delhi to talks in the right frame of mind.

The writer is Resident Editor, Daily Times, Lahore and can be reached at yourafiq@gmail.com