Daily Times

The effects of an increase in global temperature include a rise in sea levels and a change in the amount and pattern of precipitation as well as a probable expansion of subtropical deserts.

Warming is expected to be strongest in the Arctic, with the continuing retreat of glaciers, permafrost and sea ice.

Other likely effects of the warming include more frequent extreme weather events including heat waves, droughts and heavy rainfall; ocean acidification; and species extinctions due to shifting temperature regimes.

Effects significant to humans include the threat to food security from decreasing crop yields and the loss of habitat from inundation.

Wetlands are lost as the level rises. The rise in atmospheric temperature will lead to the outbreak of air-borne and water-borne diseases. It would also contribute to the rise in death caused by heat. The problem of drought would be frequent. Consequently, malnutrition and starvation will pose a serious challenge before humanity. Global warming is a great threat to the flora and fauna of the earth. A large number of species of them may become extinct.

The expanse of the desert would increase. Low rainfall and rising temperature could add to the intensity and frequency of dust storm. This, in turn, will immensely affect the quality of agricultural land, ultimately causing an adverse effect on agricultural produce. It would have a far-reaching socio-economic impact.

Together with 1991, 1983, 1987, 1988 and 1989 have been measured to be the warmest six years in the last hundred years. 1991 was the second warmest year of the past century. The consequences of the rise in temperature are being felt all over the globe

In the Indian context, the impact of global warming is a matter of grave concern. As is well known, India is mainly an agricultural country and agriculture here is a gamble of the monsoon, e.g. largely depending on rainfall. Though it is to affect the whole country, the worst likely impact would be on central and northern India which is high-yielding parts of the country. These are the regions which produce the largest agricultural yield. The rise in atmospheric temperature and fall in rain would naturally result in a decline in crop production. Moreover, it would have a great effect on biodiversity as well.

The growing concerns over global temperatures have led to the nations, states, corporations and individuals to draw out a plan of action to avert the situation. As a result, the world’s primary international agreement on combating global warming was reached in Kyoto in 1997 which came to be known as the Kyoto Protocol. However, ten years have passed; the situation does not appear to be very changed. It seems that the member countries are not very serious about its devastating effects.

In addition, forestation can be of great help in this regard. Planting more trees and reducing timber cuts worldwide will help restore the imbalance. Secondly, we must follow on environmental policy of “reduce, reuse, recycle,” i.e. promoting the reuse of anything. Thirdly, the use of fuel-efficient vehicles should be promoted as these vehicles have lower emissions of harmful gases. Fourthly, every individual should be aware of the importance of protecting the environment. Besides, eco-friendly technologies must be promoted and must be substituted with the technologies which cause great emission of global warming gases. The public awareness campaign can be of great help in this regard because unless each and every individual is aware only governments’ effect cannot bring the desired difference.

More importantly, perhaps, global warming is already putting pressure on ecosystems, the plants and animals that coexist in a particular climate zone, both on land and in the ocean. Warmer temperatures have already shifted the growing season in many parts of the globe. The growing season in parts of the Northern Hemisphere became two weeks longer in the second half of the 20th century. Spring is coming earlier in both hemispheres.

This change in the growing season affects the broader ecosystem. Migrating animals have to start seeking food sources earlier. The shift in seasons may already be causing the life cycles of pollinators, like bees, to be out of synch with flowering plants and trees. This mismatch can limit the ability of both pollinators and plants to survive and reproduce, which would reduce food availability throughout the food chain.

Warmer temperatures also extend the growing season. This means plants need more water to keep growing throughout the season or they will dry out, increasing the risk of failed crops and wildfires. Once the growing season ends, shorter, milder winters fail to kill dormant insects, increasing the risk of large, damaging infestations in subsequent seasons.

In some ecosystems, maximum daily temperatures might climb beyond the tolerance of indigenous plant or animal. To survive the extreme temperatures, both marine and land-based plants and animals have started to migrate towards the poles. Those species, and in some cases, entire ecosystems, that cannot quickly migrate or adapt, face extinction. The IPCC estimates that 20-30 per cent of plant and animal species will be at risk of extinction if temperatures climb more than 1.5° to 2.5°C. The changes to weather and ecosystems will also affect people more directly. Hardest hit will be those living in low-lying coastal areas, and residents of poorer countries who do not have the resources to adapt to changes in temperature extremes and water resources. As tropical temperature zones expand, the reach of some infectious diseases, such as malaria, will change. More intense rains and hurricanes and rising sea levels will lead to more severe flooding and potential loss of property and life.

Hotter summers and more frequent fires will lead to more cases of heat stroke and deaths, and to higher levels of near-surface ozone and smoke, which would cause more ‘code red’ air quality days. Intense droughts can lead to an increase in malnutrition. On a longer time scale, fresh water will become scarcer, especially during the summer, as mountain glaciers disappear, particularly in Asia and parts of North America.

On the flip side, there could be “winners” in a few places. For example, as long as the rise in global average temperature stays below 3 degrees Celsius, some models predict that global food production could increase because of the longer growing season at mid to high latitudes, provided adequate water resources are available. The same small change in temperature, however, would reduce food production at lower latitudes, where many countries already face food shortages. On balance, most research suggests the negative impacts of a changing climate far outweigh the positive impacts. Current civilisation-agriculture and population distribution- has developed based on the current climate. The more the climate changes, and the more rapidly it changes, the greater the cost of adaptation.

Ultimately, global warming will impact life on Earth in many ways, but the extent of the change is largely up to us. Scientists have shown that human emissions of greenhouse gases are pushing global temperatures up, and many aspects of climate are responding to the warming in the way that scientists predicted they would. This offers hope. Since people are causing global warming, people can mitigate global warming, if they act in time. Greenhouse gases are long-lived, so the planet will continue warming and changes will continue happening far into the future, but the degree to which global warming changes life on Earth depends on our decisions now.

There are many gases in the Earth’s atmosphere, but many are natural and harmless. CO2, however, is unhealthy for the atmosphere. CO2 remains in the atmosphere longer than other gases and traps in heat extremely well. Even a slight increase in CO2 in the atmosphere can cause significant increases in global temperatures. Most CO2 emissions come from the burning of fossil fuels. Cars and other vehicles can produce up to 1.5 billion tons of CO2 annually, and coal-burning power plants can produce 2.5 billion tons. Sadly, the United States is responsible for a great deal of these emissions. And though the U.S. is doing their best to rectify this problem by lowering their emission rates, other countries are doing the opposite.

So what effect does global warming actually have on the environment and human civilisation? Does an annual (average) increase in temperature of less than a degree actually transfer to a change in daily life? The answer is: yes. Global warming has been linked to the increase in wildfires and floods. It has been seen as the cause of rising sea levels and stronger hurricanes. Heat waves in Europe in 2003 led to the death of 20,000 people and over a thousand people in India. Also, the Arctic’s polar ice caps are melting at a rate of 9% every decade. Animals, such as polar bears, are losing their habitats and may end up extinct.

There are solutions to global warming, thankfully. Scientists and governments are working together to create ‘greener’ alternatives to daily life. People don’t have to give up their vehicles, but they may decide to choose hybrid cars instead of ones that rely solely on fossil fuels. Wind turbines and other sources of renewable energy can prevent the burning of coal, which is a major contributor to CO2. Global warming is not a problem that cannot be solved, but it is an issue that governments and average people need to be aware of in order to protect the people, animals and habitats of the planet Earth.

The causes of global warming show strikingly well that our energy policy has been inadequate, to put it mildly. For years we have been emitting much too much carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere as a result of burning fossil fuels, i.e. coal, gas and oil. All well-meant appeals to mitigate the consumption have failed miserably.

Oil is not only used for heating or fuelling a car’s engine, however. It is a very valuable raw material for many everyday products, like e.g. all sorts of plastics, paints and lacquers, drugs, washing powders, detergents, fertilisers, and many more. It would be irresponsible to future human generations if our generations used up this limited resources within a short time.

In the search for global warming solutions, people are suddenly asking for alternative energies. However, more than 80% of our energy is currently taken from fossil sources oil, gas or coal. It is absolutely impossible to supply this much of energy from alternative sources within the next 10 to 20 years.

Therefore, we should ask how much energy is really required to have a good quality of life, instead of taking our current energy consumption for granted or even indispensable. In a second step, we can then look for potential energy sources to fulfil this need.

As a lesson from history, we should at the same time strive to maximise the share of renewable energies (wind power, water power, solar power, wood, biomass, etc.) and on the other hand minimise the share of non-renewable energy sources like oil, gas, coal and nuclear power over time. Otherwise, our global warming solution will be just pretentious.

Up to now, any demand for energy has been satisfied. Anyone who has been willing to pay accordingly could and still can get any amount of energy. In this system, nobody has any interest in mitigated energy consumption: By contrast, all commercial interests clearly speak for increasing energy consumption. This has led to ever-increasing energy consumption, and also ignoring or denying the problem of global warming for more than 20 years.

Now, a change is urgently required in our energy policy: We must manage the natural resources on earth based on criteria of sustainability. The demand for energy has to follow the supply of renewable energy. This is the only way to implement a sustainable living, which is the base for the survival of human beings in the long run.

A reduction of the energy consumption per capita to less than 20, 000 kWh per year as a global warming solution is a challenge for all industrialized countries (see chart above). Basically, there are two potential ways to achieve this goal; reduction of the personal energy consumption by free will on account of a higher consciousness of the population, and establishing appropriate commercial basic conditions within and between the countries.

Therefore, in the short and medium term, it will most likely be indispensable to establish the above-mentioned basic conditions to force the required change. Suggestions for concrete implementations have been available for a long time.

concluded

The writer is an Assistant Professor (English) at Mehran University of Engineering and Technology, Jamshoro, Sindh