Daily Times

The US is putting economic and military pressure on Iran to trim its ever-growing wings of power in the region.

“I don’t know with what weapons world war III will be fought, but world war IV will be fought with sticks and stones.” (Einstein)

Polemics concerning the probable occurrence of third-world war, nowadays, form a major part of many a political and academic discourse.

According to luminaries of strategic and war affairs, the prevailing global conflicts involving major world powers may snowball into full-scale war at any point of time. This very development would eventually lead to the beginning of the third world war. Here, the question arises against which may be the potential initiators and what may be the circumstances that would result in a third global war. This piece is aimed to address such questions and provide the readers with a factual analysis of the possible forthcoming events.

Given the current global crisis as well as the US chronicle, America can safely be dubbed as number one among the possible initiators of third-world war. The chronological record shows that whenever there is a conflict anywhere in the world; nine times out of ten, it is the US that is involved in some capacity.

It has a long history of engineering coups, toppling regimes and baking military junta all round the world. Some examples of such interventionary foreign policy include what happened in Iran in 1953, Guatemala in 1954, Congo in 1960, the Dominican Republic in 1961, South Vietnam in 1963, Brazil in 1964, Chile in 1973, Iraq in 1992 and 2003, Syria in 2011 and finally, in Ukraine in 2014.

Currently, it is aggressively pursuing its campaign of putting “maximum pressure” against Iran and wants her to capitulate to its dictates. In addition, in order to exercise its domineering influence, it maintains hundreds of military bases in numerous countries. This policy of the world policing and constant warfare could easily escalate into a global conflict. Modern geopolitics is the delicate balance of power and in many ways similar to a game of chess; the piece is moved quickly and the powers can quickly rise and fall. The fact of the matter is that the more conflicts the US instigates, the more likely it is that it would be responsible for the third world war.

China, an economic and military giant globally, may also be another factor. As of yet, the US and China have not drawn any tight connection between the trade war and ongoing disputes in the South China Sea. However, a relation between the two countries deteriorates one or the other might decide to escalate beyond dollars, words and legal filings. Indeed, if China and the US conclude that their trade is at substantial risk and that further conflict is inevitable, either might decide to take off gloves in the South China Sea.

Another big player in the third world war may be Russia. After the cold war, Russia and the US relations were relatively stable. In the 1990s, Boris Yeltsin and the US President Clinton developed a strong relationship that brought the two former adversaries closer together. Yeltsin’s successor, Vladimir Putin, also enjoyed a similar relationship with his counterpart, Bush. The two leaders stood side by side in the 2005 Victory Day parade. Today, however, Putin’s soaring influence in the Middle East, Central Asia and Eastern Europe has caused the two countries to be at daggers drawn against each other.

Israel, a sworn friend and indispensable ally of the US in the Middle East, may pave the way for the third world war at any time.

China, an economic and military giant globally, may also be another factor. As of yet, the US and China have not drawn any tight connection between the trade war and ongoing disputes in the South China Sea

Israel’s relations with its immediate neighbours are not cordial. Its aggressive and hawkish posture on Palestinian Muslims is certainly, bound to ignite a befitting response from the Muslim world at any time.

And, if this happens, the US, while keeping up its tradition of interventionism, might come to rescue Israel. This very situation, thus, may lead to a resumption of WWIII.

Iran, a country that is often painted in media across the western world as unstable and the most aggressive regime, can also put its share at the beginning of World War III.

Equipped with a plethora of hydrocarbon resources, skilled human capital and unparalleled expertise in science and technology, Iran enjoys a hegemonic influence in the Middle East.

This is what is disliked by the US as well as Israel. That’s why the US is putting economic and military pressure on Iran to trim its ever-growing wings of power in the region.

Besides Israel, Iran could also enter into conflict with Turkey and Saudi Arabia, which are Iran’s main competitors in the region.

However, any attack on Turkey would directly engage NATO into conflict since all the members of NATO under Article 5 of the NATO’S charter are obligated to come to the aid of Turkey.

On the other hand, any strike on Saudi Arabia would certainly call for US intervention as Riyadh is the key ally of Washington in the region.

However, Iran is not without its allies. It enjoys the support of Russia and China in the interests of both to limit the US influence in the region, converge. Therefore, they find Iran as an apt ally to further their mission in the Middle East.

North Korea is in possession of nukes, intercontinental ballistic missiles and hydrogen bombs among other firearms. It is headed by Kim Jung Un. The country poses an enormous threat to the world. Kim Jung Un is constantly found threatening to South Korea and the US. One mistake in this region could trigger a devastating war.

Historically, the north and south have been pawns in the cold war that dominated from the 1950s to the fall of the Soviet Union. China and Russia have been patrons of the North whereas the US and its western allies patronised the south.

Of all the conflict zones on the planet, this one, according to war experts, has the makings to trigger the global war, pulling China and Russia on one side and US, Japan and other western countries on the other.

Syria, currently the most affected war-ravaged area, is without an iota of doubt likely to resume the third global fight. In Syria, the major world powers like the US and Russia are fighting through their proxies.

Both are providing money, men and materials to their respective allies. Syrian President Asad’s main goal, in the beginning, was to wipe out the opposition and prevent the civilian war escalating into a global conflict. Unfortunately, the exact opposite has occurred, which has dragged world powers to a local conflict and hence, turned the local conflict into a global conflict.

Consequently, Syria becomes one of the countries where the third global war could possibly kick off.

Finally, India and Pakistan have the potential to become candidates of the third world war. Both are nuclear powers and nurture intense antipathy against each other. Both have fought four wars over Kashmir that is classified as a nuclear flashpoint meaning thereby it has the potential to stimulate nuclear war between the two countries. Thus, nuclear war in any part of the world, for sure, would bring disastrous consequences not only for the region where it takes place but also for the whole world.

The writer is a legal practitioner-cum-columnist based in Quetta