Daily Times

Pakistan is facing existential threat to its existence due to internal, external, and economic security challenges. There is a famous theory about the “Resource Curse” or the “Paradox of Plenty”, according to which the countries with abundance of natural resources suffer from democratic deficit, conflicts, and lack of development. The term was coined in the context of resource rich African countries whose natural wealth acted as a magnet for the carpet bagging hordes of economic mercenaries who looted the wealth of these countries, sometimes in the garb of white man’s burden, and sometimes in the garb of development. The countries concerned also had to be blamed because instead of converting their resource advantage into value added industrial development these countries traded resources for transient comforts, mortgaging therefore the future of their future generation to the depredations of resource bandits.

Pakistan also is a victim of its geopolitical curse. Lying on the crossroads of South and Central Asia it is also a gateway to Middle East for South Asia. As a consequence of its geo-strategic significance Pakistan found itself as a frontline state in the US Monroe doctrine’s South Asian version, defending the ramparts of capitalist world from the marauding waves of communism. Born on the basis of an ideology to preserve the economic and religious rights of Muslims of subcontinent, Pakistan fell afoul of its conjoined twin i.e India right after partition. In order to stand up to a bully on the block Pakistan found comfort in the lap of a willing ally with the economic and military muscle capable of strengthening its economic and military sinews against its nemesis i.e India. Threats therefore defined Pakistan’s foreign and economic policies in the formative years of its existence.

A Garrison State environment was spawned due to these threats and the ideological nature of the state exacerbated a persecution complex that gave rise to a nation in arms, ready to defend its territorial and ideological frontiers through all means at its disposal. The big difference however was that instead of a citizens’ army Pakistan had a British trained army with deeply ingrained colonial traditions and customs. The “specialists on violence” as per the term coined by famous theorist Harold Laswell slowly tool charge of the national policies in cahoots with the civilian bureaucrats with the politicians looking askance at the slipping power from beneath their feet. After Quaid and Liaquat Ali Khan’s departure there was no leader of the national status left who could inspire the confidence of masses and civil-military bureaucracy. Pakistan thus became a national security state with development and human security relegated to the second tier.

Expanding the corridor by inviting USA and India would reduce the threat to CPEC and Pakistan. The development of mutual economic and trade stakes would create lobbies within India and USA to promote peace in the region

A nation therefore steeped in the Garrison State ethos where the population also comes to believe in the notions of national honour and confrontation as the main aims of state’s existence remains perpetually in war mode. The geo-strategic advantage therefore that let Pakistan get into international alliances to shore up its economic and military potential ultimately became its geo-political curse. After two world powers i.e Soviets in eighties and Americans in 2001 left neighbouring Afghanistan in a mess Pakistan had to clear the detritus suffering drugs, gun running, terrorism, and an active insurgency in FATA. As the US Afghan campaign draws to a close Pakistan was coopted to influence Taliban to help US withdrawal from Afghanistan on honorable terms. The threats on the Western frontier had hardly subsided that another wave of cloak and dagger politics started.

This time it was another variant of our geopolitical curse that caused instability. It was China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a part of One Belt One Road (OBOR) Chinese strategic vision that brought Pakistan in the cross hairs of international rivalries. The Sino-US rivalry and the US strategy of stalling OBOR put CPEC in the same red lined threat matrix as Badaber’s underlining in red by Khrushchev in 1960. In order to counter China US has entered into a strategic relationship with India. Now in this black and white scenario Pakistan has picked up CPEC as a national development instrument through a strategic engagement with China. Our geostrategic advantage unfortunately has the danger of becoming our geopolitical curse by inviting joint Indo-US reprisals to derail the CPEC project. Pakistan’s attempts to mend fences with a rabidly fanatic Indian government led by Hindutva drunk BJP leadership have also come a cropper due to above mentioned Indo-US strategic congruence.

Pakistan’s security challenges therefore call for an out of box solution. CPEC is the elephant in the room that can act either as a peace bridge or a spoiler. CPEC contains two names i.e China and Pakistan but its potential as a trade and commerce corridor transcends China and Pakistan. It has the potential to rope in India, Iran, Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar and USA. We may rename it regional economic or international economic corridor instead of CPEC if that annoys USA and India. Let a thousand flowers bloom should be our credo when comes to deriving benefits from the corridor. Expanding the corridor by inviting USA and India would reduce the threat to CPEC and Pakistan. The development of mutual economic and trade stakes would create lobbies within India and USA to promote peace in the region. Diplomacy therefore should be pressed into service as a national security strategy instead of a militarization of CPEC at the moment.

Pakistan with its present policy of CPEC’s defence through raising of new formations is bleeding itself dry since it is well- nigh impossible to defend CPEC end to end through deployed troops. One incident of terrorism is enough to defeat the long trail of troops’ deployment. The security of the corridor should therefore be ensured through a different strategy i.e co-option of India and USA into the corridor. Pakistan’s strategy to counter a conflict vis a vis India should be to deny Indians the space for conventional war through its nuclear deterrence and diplomacy. If the deterrence and diplomacy fail then the scope of war should be reduced through adroit warfighting concepts and recreation of deterrence to give space to diplomacy to terminate the conflict. War avoidance through constriction of space for conflict calls for orchestration of all elements of national power e.g military strength, diplomacy and use of economic linkages (Regional Security Corridor).

A time has come that to demilitarize our security strategy and to give salience to human security and economic diplomacy in order to reduce pressure on our resource intensive military element of national power potential. Real democracy with meaningful civilian oversight of military would save the day for us due to the stakes such a polity develops for all segments of population into the system of governance. A democracy sans democratic spirit of pluralism, constitutionalism and liberalism degenerates into fascism. A new security and governance paradigm is therefore need of the hour to counter our complex security challenges.

The writer is a PhD scholar at NUST