Daily Times

The US is making the same mistake in its standoff with Iran it made in Afghanistan or earlier in Vietnam. It seems to be ignoring the bitter truth experienced in both these countries that a war fought with a wrong enemy could dent political prestige and leave little room for a face saving exit even for a super military power. Ironically, US is currently negotiating with Taliban to project its planned withdrawal from Afghanistan as completion of its stated mission. Taliban are not in a mood to oblige US and continue to claim that they have defeated US in the 14 years long war. The important fact is that the people in Afghanistan, in particular and the world in general, hardly disagree with the contention of Taliban. The US leadership may rethink before plunging into another war hastily.

Trump says ‘Iran made a very big mistake’ in shooting down US military drone.

According to initially reports, The New York Times, citing senior White House officials, says strikes were planned against a “handful” of Iranian targets. The operation was allegedly under way “in its early stages” when Trump stood the US military down. The US maintains its drone was shot down by Iran in international airspace. Iran has claimed it had entered the Iranian airspace early on June 20 morning. Claims and counter claims notwithstanding, the issue is that the world is moving closer to a confrontation that may not endanger American lives but is sure to wreck heavy human and economic losses on its allies in the Gulf. The spiritual leader Khamenei considers the looming US aerial strikes as an assault on Iran’s sovereignty for which no price can be high enough. One Iranian commander has warned that is “ready for war.”

America has moved back from a regime change to an offer of negotiation on new terms for concluding a new nuclear deal. Iran has repulsed the offer. Its Supreme leader will consider it beneath his country’s dignity to agree to amend or renegotiate another deal. Iran has asked the other signatories to the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) to adhere to the agreement in full or be prepared for Iran ‘s resolve to scale back the agreed commitments e.g. reduce low-enriched uranium (3.67% level) stockpile by 98% to 300 kilograms valid until 2031. Iran faithfully observed articles 26 and 36 of the JCPOA. Article 26 specifically states that the European Union “will refrain from reintroducing or re-imposing the sanctions it has terminated under the deal. The European signatories especially Germany and France have been making efforts to save the deal. Other major countries especially Japan, Gulf States, Russia and China do not take the Iranian resolve to start enriching process as an empty threat. The German Foreign Minister was in Iran recently and also visited its neighbors to defuse the alarming situation. The Japanese Premier Shinzo Abe also held serious talks in Tehran to facilitate contact between Iran and US. The UN Secretary General, Russia and China have called for restraint in the wake of alleged Iranian attacks on oil tankers in the Strait of Oman.

The call for initiating production of 3.6 % enriched uranium maybe an apparent last-ditch attempt to force Europe’s hand in preserving the nuclear deal and guarantying Iran’s interests

The call for initiating production of 3.6 % enriched uranium maybe an apparent last-ditch attempt to force Europe’s hand in preserving the nuclear deal and guarantying Iran’s interests. Iran is already in an “economic death spiral.” Not satisfied yet, Trump wants to eliminate Iran’s economy by blocking its core energy exports. Unfortunately, more than the Europeans, the Islamic countries from the region, are lobbying with US for a decisive action against Iran. It is no wonder that the war drums are not relenting. Another reason for this sorry state of affairs could be found in history, not strictly confined to the enduring rivalry between Arabs and Iran but extending to the decades old Iran-US geopolitical contestation throughout the Middle East. How could talks begun between them when both Iran and US mistrust each other? President Trump considers the 2015 deal inherently flawed and takes longer dark view of Iranian intentions to possess as much enriched uranium as it wishes, without any restrictions after 15 years. Then the expanding Iranian influence in Iraq, Yemen, Syria and Lebanon portrays an Arab version of “Thucydides’ trap,” where Iran wants to exploit the flawed American Middle East policy to press its claim as the new regional hegemon.

The incident of shooting down drone was the first direct military attack on a U.S. military asset since the aborted US Embassy hostage rescue operation conducted in Tehran in April 1980. Attempts have been made in recent past to hit similar US devices in the Gulf region. The warning signs are that US administration may commit the 2003 mistake when it raided Iraq, provoking anarchic political landscape even in today’s politically stable countries, including Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt and UAE.

Iran is not a threat to US existence. Its leadership has stopped calling America “Great Satan.” It cooperated with US in Syria against ISIS and supported US- Taliban negotiations in Afghanistan. In fact, a prosperous and engaged Iran is not a threat to the region as well. Only an isolated and poverty stricken Iran can behave recklessly and it has plenty of stamina to put up with harsh and adverse conditions as witnessed in the ten Iran-Iraq war.

No one wants war. Even Trump is not fully convinced that a war would deliver the outcome America wants. Had he been, he would not have pulled back from military aerial strikes. He did strike in Syria. No one challenged America. Earlier America invaded Iraq without UN authorization. So, US President feels emboldened by bad precedence. Dangerous signals in the meanwhile are flashing. Options may run out, as both sides tend to harden their positions. Perhaps, US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is right when she said (June 13, 2019), “there’s no appetite for going to war in our country.” This sentiment may prove to be the critical determinant in deciding whether America would strike against Iran. For instance, the statement of Gen. Hossein Salami, commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, after the US drone was downed was too provocative, “Shooting down the American spy drone had a clear, decisive, firm and accurate message.” Both sides may bumble into an armed contest, unraveling what President Vladimir Putin ascribes as a “catastrophe with unpredictable consequences”.

American analysts have spoken about Iranian options in case of any armed flare up with the US. In this context, they see an interesting challenge emerging from strengthened Iranian A2/AD capabilities (Area access/ area denial) and land based ASCMs. Retired Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Martin Dempsey said on June 18, “Fewer partners means fewer options. We are now alone on a more dangerous path with fewer options. Keep an eye on the centrifuges. But watch the missiles.” Kevin Baron Executive Editor, “Defence One,” says, Iran still can’t hit the US or Europe with anything, much less a nuclear weapon. But it can and has been sneaking missiles into Yemen and hitting Saudi Arabia and ships in the straits between Africa and the Arabian Peninsula, killing the troops of American allies. So far the US has no valid excuse to strain the global economy by launching air strikes against Iran and there is still hope President Trump can desist the hawks within his administration.

The writer is a former ambassador and adviser to CRSS, Islamabad