Daily Times

India is likely planning to integrate three new Integrated Battle Groups (IBG) along the Pakistani border. The idea is to offer Indian military superiority when it comes to carrying out swift strikes against Pakistan. According to the available reports, the plan also includes a working strategy to capture territory before Pakistan’s forces are able to muster response against the Indian forces.

It is unlikely India will go ahead with the idea of deploying IBG with the intention of seizing Pakistan’s territory during a conflict situation. Such a policy on the part of New Delhi would result in grave implications, where a nuclear exchange is likely to become a part of the debate.

Here are some questions for the Indian policymakers if the above-mentioned reports are correct:

Arguably, the suggested plans point towards India’s Cold Start doctrine that has remained part of New Delhi’s policy circles for more than a decade. In India’s military circles, Cold Start is a name given to a war strategy aimed at capturing Pakistan’s territory without stirring a nuclear conflict. Arguably, the integration of three IBG’s points towards the Cold Start doctrine, which, so far, has remained a theoretical discourse.

There are two important aspects of this policy implementation by New Delhi.

Firstly, it’s likely that India is going to implement a part of the Cold Start doctrine to preempt Pakistan or put pressure on Pakistan’s military.

India may consider intruding in Pakistan’s territory but any such action would have serious costs

It’s unlikely India’s political or military leadership is truly in a position to launch a ground assault against Pakistan without expecting a serious reaction. The recent incident of the Balakot strikes has taught one clear lesson to India’s political and military leadership: India may consider intruding in Pakistan’s territory but any such action would have serious costs. The costs imposed during February’s conflict sent a clear message to New Delhi that when it comes to Pakistan’s territorial integrity and serenity, the country’s military was willing to take any risks. It’s not a surprise that after India’s Balakot Adventure, Pakistan’s military and civilian leadership brought into discussion the role of the National Command Authority (NCA). The objective was simple: if India wanted to escalate, Pakistan would be left with no other position but to accelerate the response.

In this context, it should be clear to India’s policymakers that raising an IGB with an intent of intervention would bring into discussion the role of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons. The tactical nuclear weapons, which Pakistan’s military retain, have been designed and operationalised to counter such an adventure from India. Moreover, India, as well as the international community, particularly the US, are aware that launching a territorial offensive against Pakistan would have grave consequences. Thus, the policy, which is being advertised as a part of the Cold Start doctrine, is actually meant to fulfil India’s own security needs along Pakistan’s border, rather than preparing for an action against Pakistan.

Still, the policy is expected to draw a serious response from Pakistan. For months, Pakistan has pitched for dialogue with India on all fronts. While it is unclear if India’s political and military leadership are interested in beginning dialogue with Pakistan, more would become clear in the coming months as New Delhi moves away from the charged anti-Pakistan electoral debates. As of now, the situation doesn’t look encouraging. A few days ago, India stopped a number of Sikh pilgrims from travelling to Pakistan, which resulted in a protest against the Indian government. Moreover, the Indian government has gone quiet on the construction of the Kartarput corridor, which has taken a central seat conceding Pakistan and India’s bilateral relationship. While Pakistan has committed substantial funds in its federal budget for the corridor, the newly elected government of Narendra Modi doesn’t appear to be interested in any debate regarding the corridor. Apparently, the BJP’s government is not interested in pursuing a policy, which has been the demand of India’s 20 million Sikhs.

When Modi asks PM Khan that trust deficit is a major issue between India and Pakistan, he needs to look at his country’s policy on the Kartarpur corridor, which Pakistan is willing to complete to overcome the existing trust deficit between the two countries. The ball is in India’s court as Pakistan has shown an earnest desire to open dialogue with the country.

The writer is a lecturer