Daily Times

Renewable energy technologies (RETs) have finally come of age and are nowbeginning to compete with conventional power generation options. Their successful march appears unstoppablenow. But leavingthem to market alone may not permit deriving the full benefits that RETs are capable of providing to society in the form of secure, affordable, and sustainable energy supplies.A more thoughtful and guided approach will be required to make that happen.

After decades of neglect and casual treatment, RETs have finally succeeded in grabbingthe attention of energy sector decision makers around the world. Their technological maturity and economics have reached a stage where they are now competing head-to head with conventional power generating technologies in new projects, and this is happening without any special financial support.

RETs have certainly come a long way since the early interest in themduring the 1980s that dwindled during the 1990s due to glut of oil that prevailed in the world market during that decade.The interest was rekindled in the past decade and a half in the wake of growing concerns about the potential of climate change from the anthropogenic sources of greenhouse gases (GHGs), mainly from the energy sector. Thanks also to environmentalists who did not relent their push for them as sources of clean and sustainable sources of energy for society.

Looking back just a decade, world’s solar PV capacity has grown 37-fold to reach 505 GW last year from a paltry 13.5 GW in 2008, a 44% annual growth. Wind plants also recorded a 22-fold growth, from 26.7 GW in 2008 to reach 591 GW in 2018, a 36% annual growth (REN21’s “The Renewables 20119 Global Status Report”).

Investment in renewable power and fuels has exceeded USD 280 billion per year for the past five years consistently, 94% going to solar and wind in 2018. Developing countries overtook developed countries in renewable energy investment in 2015 and continue to retain this lead to this day. In 2018, at least nine countries were supplying more than 20% of their electricity generation needs from RETs. (REN21’s GSR2019)

According to International Renewable Energy Agency’s (IRENA’s), recently released “Renewable Power Generation Cost 2018” report, almost all RETs are now competing with their conventional generation counterparts, and turning out to be winners. IRENA’s report also found that the weighted-average levelized cost of electricity (LCOE)–a measure of the cost of electricity generation that recovers the full costs of a power generating technology (capital, O&M, and fuel cost) over its lifecycle–was within the range of power generation from conventional options. In a few projects for some countries, like our neighboring India,it was even lower than the above average.

RETs are poised to go even further in the future as they are expected to play even greater and more pivotal role in serving the future energy demands of the world in more sustainable ways. According to Bloomberg New Energy Finance’s (BNEF’s) New Energy Outlook 2018, some $11.5 trillion will be invested worldwide in RETs between 2018 and 2050 (largely solar and wind), over 70% of it going to the power sector alone.

But RETs’ growing popularity and maturity notwithstanding, leaving them to markets alone will not permit society to derive the full range of benefits that these are capable of providing to society. A more thoughtful and carefully guided approach will be required to make that possible. This is because RETs are inherently different from conventional power generating technologies based on fossil and nuclear fuels and, therefore, demand special handling.

Unlike their conventional competitors, for which the primary fuel, apart from its cost, is virtually guaranteed anywhere, even though the resource is nature itself (sun’s radiation and wind) for RETs and thus ubiquitous and free, its availability is intermittent, variable, diffused, and dispersed.

Similarly, in contrast to conventional generation for which the sole issue is to match demandwith sufficient generation supplies by negotiating a tradeoff between fuel transportation and power transmission and distribution (T&D) costs, RETs require a careful assessment of the resource availability, demand patterns, and site peculiarities to work out the best technology, size, and location for their deployment.

Development of local industrial base for RETs can contribute significantly in meeting the government target of creating ten million jobs in the country during its tenure

Whether the RETs are added at consumersendin small distributed sizes or in large utility-scale, their presence in the grid at significant penetration levels (share of RE capacity in the system), imposes unique stress on the power system in terms of backup capacity, fast-response power plants, and system’s capability requirements to deal with the intermittent and variable nature of renewable sources of power. This dictates a totally different planning capability, tools, skills, and databases than what is normally required for conventional generating technologies.

It would be, therefore, wise to develop this resource and technology assessment capacity, planning and design capability, tools, and databases within the country prior to opening the area for RETs uptake at any significant level. Our relevant agencies, especially Alternative Energy Development Board (AEDB) and National Transmission and Despatch Company (NTDC) will need to jointly arrange the required resource and technology assessment studies to identify the most suitable locations, technologies, sizes, and other required details to guide the soliciting and development of RETs in the country to gain the most value from them.

Unlike conventional generating technologies, RETs are labor-intensive in nature owing to their small sizes and distributed nature.It offers a historic opportunity to our government to create local industrial base in the country for manufacturing of PV panels, wind turbines, and balance-of-system components. According to REN21’s GSR 2019 report, there were over 11 million jobs worldwide being supported by RETs in 2018, directly or indirectly.

Development of local industrial base for RETs can contribute significantly in meeting the government target of creating ten million jobs in the country during its tenure. Ours is turning out to be an import-happy nation.It would be unfortunate to forego this opportunity to reduce our dependence on foreign oil and RLNG for power generation on which a significant share of our hard-earned foreign exchange is spent every year. This will also help to conserveour limited stocks of natural gas which have better uses elsewhere than burning it to generate electric power.

Due to the RETs’ smallsize and dispersed nature, investor may be reluctant initially to invest in solar and wind project as they might find them to be riskier than the large-scale and more established conventional power plants. To give the RETs a jump start in the country and build investor confidence, the government will need to create a renewable energy investment fund from which small investors and individuals can draw loans on favorable terms and conditions to invest in renewable electricity generating systems.

The writer is afreelance consultant specializing in sustainable energy and power system planning and development