Daily Times

The recent attack on two oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman, and the subsequent harsh exchange between Iran and the US, clearly indicate that any miscalculation can trigger a full-scale war that may engulf the entire Indian Ocean Region. Such incidents can only sharpen the divide in the Muslim world on one hand, and deepen the competition in the IOR between China and the US on the other.

Ensuring security of the sea lanes of communication and maintaining neutrality in the face of mounting tension in the region is a colossal task for Pakistani policymakers and strategists. The government, however, seems quite indifferent and unmoved by the prospect of an escalation in our immediate neighbourhood.

Margins for negotiations are shrinking in the Middle East as is evident from inconsequential visit to Iran by the Japanese prime minister. The US has announced that it is sending another 1,000 troops to the region in the aftermath of the mysterious attack on its oil carriers near the strategic Strait of Hormuz last Thursday. Both Moscow and Beijing have condemned the move as a provocation for war in the region. Saudi Arabia and Israel have endorsed Washington’s strategy towards Iran. Resultantly, the international community seems to be polarising on the issue.

New Delhi is likely to exploit the opportunity to transform itself from a coastal to maritime power in order to deter China in the Indian Ocean Region and put Pakistan under pressure

The US sanctions are economically frustrating the Iranian leadership. In this situation, any misreading by the internationally isolated and domestically challenged Iran may trigger a war by incident if not by design. Such an armed engagement between Iran and the US will have adverse consequences not only for the region but also for the world beyond. Iran and the US must act rationally and should not leave any stone unturned to preserve regional and international peace. Both countries should understand that there is no better alternative to peace. The US, in particular, needs to look back in order to see that the world is still struggling to deal with the spillover of its invasions of Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria. Any adventure in near future could provoke an unintended war. All regional powers should use their influence to prevent further escalation.

Pakistan cannot afford to play ignorant to the new developments in the Indian Ocean and the Gulf. With 990 kilometres of coastline, Pakistan has an exclusive economic zone in the heart of the Arabian Sea, which is equal to 40 per cent of the landmass of the country. In addition, Pakistan relies almost entirely on the sea lanes for its trade and oil supplies. From a security point of view, territorial waters provide the ‘new strategic depth’ against a potential nuclear threat from the rival eastern neighbour. Pakistan’s partnership with China largely hinges upon the China Pakistan Economic Corridor, the flagship project of the Belt and Road Initiative that connects landlocked western China with the Arabian Sea through the Gwadar Port. The calls for more investment of energy and resources in maritime security, strategy and research to face the existing and emerging challenges in the Arabian Sea, the Gulf and the larger IOR.

Pakistan’s geostrategic location in the Indian Ocean makes it a very important country. Its major ports are in close vicinity of the Strait of Hormuz, and it shares land border with Iran. Therefore, in the event of any armed conflict, Pakistan lies right in the epicentre of tension. Increased US naval presence in the region will aggravate the struggle between China-Pakistan and US-India coalitions in the IOR.

New Delhi is likely to try to exploit the opportunity to transform itself from a coastal to a maritime power in order to deter China in the IOR and put Pakistan under pressure. The Saudi-Iran enmity may surface with a limited warfare or further built-up of defence in international waters. The resultant militarisation of the Indian Ocean can potentially jeopardise trade activity in the IOR as freedom of navigation can be seriously compromised.

Pakistan must prepare to not only face the immediate situation but also divert more attention and resources to maritime security and strategy in order to cope with emerging conflicts in the Arabian Sea and in Indian Ocean.

The writer teaches Political Science at GC University Lahore