Daily Times

As published by ALJAZEERA News dated 15 May 2019,the suspected “sabotage operations” on four commercial ships off the coast of the UAE’s port of Fujairah on 12 May 2019, have heightened turmoil in a region already on edge amid a standoff between the United States and Iran over Tehran’s nuclear programme. According to the Time dated 17 May 2019, Washington already had warned shipping companies that “Iran or its proxies” could be targeting maritime traffic in the Persian Gulf region and said it has deployed an aircraft carrier strike group and B-52 bombers there to counter the threat.

As stated by the Arab News dated 16 May 2019, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Norway (ship owners) have notified the United Nations about the sabotage attacks. In a written statement, the three countries jointly said the attack “posed a threat to the safety and security” of international shipping and maritime navigation. It said no one was injured, but the hulls of at least three of the four ships were damaged. The joint statement said the three countries, working with international partners, are investigating.

Iranian officials have expressed concern, saying the alleged attacks could have been carried out by third parties to stir up conflict between Washington and Tehran. Iran denies US accusation of attacks on oil tankers off the UAE coast. Iran’s foreign minister commented, “We had previously predicted that such actions would occur to create tensions in the region. However, the spokesman for Iran’s parliament, Behrouz Nemati, blamed Israel for the attacks.

Adding to the tensions, as published by the Straits Times on May 14, 2019, the explosive-laden drones had struck oil pumping station/oil pipeline in the Saudi Arabia, Riyadh region. The Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih, in comments run by state media, said the two recent attacks threatened global oil supplies and proved the need to counter “terrorist groups behind such destructive acts” including the Iranian-backed Houthi militias in Yemen.

It is a positive development that President Trump has welcomed the initiative of the Prime Minister of Japan, Mr. Shinzo Abe for mediation between the US and Iran and this initiative needs to be supported by all concerned to make it a success

In view of the above situation, tensions are high in the region. About a fifth of the oil that is consumed globally passes through the area. Last month, Iran threatened to “close” the Strait of Hormuz if it was prevented from using the waterway. This followed a US decision to end exemptions from sanctions for major importers of Iranian oil, thus triggering an economic crisis in Iran. President Trump also said, Iran will “suffer greatly” if they threaten US interests in the Middle East. President Hassan Rouhani announced plans to scale back into compliance with the nuclear deal unless remaining signatories acted to shield Tehran’s economy.

As the USA is still fighting the long Afghan war due to which the people of Afghanistan and other neighbouring countries like Pakistan are suffering from the spill over of terrorism and refugee issue,a military action/war by the US against Iran will be catastrophic for the Middle East, especially when the region is still facing the aftermath of wars in Iraq and Syria. Such an action can likely transform into a long war, and Pakistan will likely suffer being the neighbour and might face Afghan war situations.

Prime Minister Imran Khan has already warned against the risk of conflict in the region, as the brewing tensions between the USA and Iran has created alarm bells in the entire region. He said the war will add to the existing instability, and poverty in the region, and will negatively impact the economic growth.

Pakistan has already suffered for the last 3 decades due to the Afghan war in the shape of terrorism, influx of refugees and economic turmoil. Considering the past experience, Pakistan’s Government is very concerned about the US-Iran military stand off.

The US-Iran war is also likely to hit the world economy very badly, as the oil prices will rise to the unexpected level as Iran will likely block the passage of oil tankers from and to the Straits of Hormuz, which will negatively impact the growth of the world economy, that will add to the unemployment and poverty in the third world countries, especially in the adjoining regions. This war may also involve other major powers as their oil supplies may also be disrupted and thus disturb the regional and world peace.

In the light of the above scenario, major powers and other US friends are expected to play their role in diffusing the tensions and convincing the US that contentious issues with Iran should be resolved through a dialogue instead of using the force. In this context, it is a positive development that President Trump has welcomed the initiative of the Prime Minister of Japan, Mr. Shinzo Abe for mediation between the US and Iran and this initiative needs to be supported by all concerned to make it a success.

The writer is a former Research Fellow of Islamabad Policy Research Institute (IPRI), Islamabad