Daily Times

Modi Raj-2 dawned on May 30 with the oath taking of the prime minister. There has been no change in policy perceptions towards China.

Policy planners in New Delhi have long been habituated to view South Asia as India’s backyard. That position has been put to test by China’s growing footprint in South Asian countries.

The Belt and Road Initiative, under President Xi Jinping, has led China to invest heavily in infrastructure and other sectors and taking an interest in political developments, particularly stability.

The China card has of late allowed several South Asian neighbours to negotiate a better bargain with India. Modi is the only Indian PM in more than 30 years to have visited all South Asian countries. His predecessors emphasized the importance of the region. Some even made foreign policy the hallmark of their rule, but engagement with sustained efficacy eluded most.

Policy dilemmas

For the present Indian government, it is a tightrope walk. A number of observers feel that India lacks the confidence to accept the position it enjoys. For all South Asian nations, India is the first choice ally, but Delhi lacks the confidence to open up and embrace them.

A peaceful, stable neighbourhood is vital for India. One, it’s directly linked to India’s development. Two, India’s desire for a bigger role on the global stage hinges on being able to calm the waters closer home.

Third, China’s looming presence. The simultaneous rise of two Asian giants poses both challenges and opportunities for both. India senses the advantage in improving bilateral ties, but would not want to concede turf in its own backyard, where it could be vulnerable.

Narendra Modi took over after leading the NDA to victory in May 2014 and invited leaders of all the neighbouring countries to his swearing-in ceremony on May 26. The move was an indication that he wanted a new beginning. On the eve of his completion of four years in office as Prime Minister, he met Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina Wajed in Santiniketan. In between, he visited all the neighbouring countries. Now, he has returned with a strong majority.

Ties have not improved with Nepal and Bangladesh — not to speak of China, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. Instead of having friends in our backyard, we now have friends like the US, Japan, Australia and Israel. It is New Delhi’s geo-strategic compulsion to befriend the US in the post-Cold War years as China has virtually encircled us. But can President Donald Trump ever be trusted? If Europe, is unable to rely on him, how can India?

A peaceful, stable neighbourhood is vital for India

India understands that never in recent decades have Russia and China been so close. They both have a very good relationship with Pakistan as well as Iran. Afghanistan also cannot ignore these two great powers, in spite of the fact that there are still a few thousand American forces stationed in that country.

China in Nepal and Sri Lanka

China, with the Belt and Road Initiative, has been breathing down India’s neck. India’s objection to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, which passes through Kashmir, is understandable. But India does not seem to have any strategy in dealing with the Chinese train coming in full speed to Kathmandu. Chinese presence in Nepal is a matter of concern as India has an open border with the Himalayan Republic. One way or the other, we have pushed Kathmandu towards Beijing.

In Nepal, despite the scrapping of several big-ticket infrastructure projects involving Chinese firms, Prime Minister KP Oli has indicated he expects both China and India to play a role in development projects. India is now in a race to match China’s efforts to develop infrastructure, including a railway line that would link Tibet with Kathmandu.

China has already established a considerable foothold in Sri Lanka, having taken over the strategic Hambantota port and 15,000 acres of land around it after the island nation was unable to repay Chinese loans.

China’s role in Sri Lanka, which has grown remarkably in recent years, is poised to expand geographically as well. Hitherto, Beijing’s projects were confined to the southern parts of the island. It is now making inroads into the Northern Province and the rubber, tea and coconut plantations of the central highlands.

This is not the first time that China will provide a shot in the arm to Sri Lanka’s rubber industry. Back in 1952, Sri Lanka and China signed a barter trade pact under which the two countries agreed to exchange Sri Lanka’s natural rubber for Chinese rice. This was a period when synthetic rubber was in demand globally. With the international market for its natural rubber much reduced, Sri Lanka’s economy slumped. China’s purchase of Sri Lanka’s natural rubber helped ease the crisis.

China’s footprint in Sri Lanka is “expanding into the island’s Tamil-dominated areas,” A retired Indian diplomat said, adding these are areas where “India’s influence in the island has been the strongest.”

According to him, Beijing might have pressured Colombo to open up the north to a Chinese role in reconstruction. Its “entry into these pockets of strong Indian influence” is “worrying” as its role here could “grow at India’s cost.”

In Maldives and Bangladesh

In the Maldives, Abdulla Yameen was able to defy pressure from India and other countries opposed to his autocratic ways largely because he believed the Chinese had his back. India recently skipped the inauguration of China-funded Sinamale Bridge in Male, commonly known as the China-Maldives Friendship Bridge. It is a flagship infrastructure project, linking capital Male with the airport island. Sinamale Bridge was built with a grant of $116 million from China. China also provided a $72 million loan.

The Maldives is strategically important for India because it is located in the Indian Ocean, very close to Island of Minicoy. The shipping from the Gulf of Aden and the Gulf of Oman passes through Minicoy and Maldives before sailing towards Sri Lanka Strait of Malacca/Java Sea/Lombok Strait. Similarly, the shipping from the North Pacific Ocean, moving into the Gulf through these areas, also passes through this channel. It is estimated that nearly half of the world’s shipping consignments, including crucial oil for Japan and China passes through these points, hence control of these choke points is a major strategic concern.

In Bangladesh, there is a growing disquiet among the political leadership over threats by Indian politicians to push back people excluded from the National Register of Citizens’ to the neighbouring country as well as India’s perceived silence on the issue of Myanmar taking back hundreds of thousands of Rohingya refugees now living in Bangladesh.

Thus, while India has been able to take the lead on major global issues such as climate change, trade and building a multi-polar order and defy pressure from powers such as the US on strategic matters such as the acquisition of the S-400 air defence system from Russia, its immediate neighbourhood has slipped from the radar of policy planners. This is all the more surprising in view of the government’s stated “neighbourhood first” policy.

The writer, a professor a BNMU’s West Campus