Daily Times

Our prime minister has recently directed the Ministry of Climate Change to manage electric car manufacturing in the country and ensure that by 2030, 30 per cent of the cars in the country are run on electricity to curb air pollution.

This appears to be a desirable initiative. It must, however, be looked at in a broader perspective to comprehend how it will impact other sectors of the economy to ensure that it will indeed provide the intended benefits and avoid any unintended consequences.

If the power for these vehicles is to come from thermal plants, then we might save emissions in the transport sector while adding these in the power sector, and actually, inflate our import bill.

It is critical that any policy to promote electric vehicles is not pursued in isolation, but as a part of a holistic national policy that recognises the links between economy, energy and environment, and selects a development path that builds on secure and indigenous energy supplies without jeopardising the country’s environment.

Electric vehicles have seen spectacular growth in developed countries as well as some developing countries, like China and India. By the end of 2018, their stock in the world stood at around 5 million – a substantial growth from less than 500,000 in 2013. Global electric vehicle sales crossed two million last year, with China seeing half of these. The International Energy Agency predicts the global stock of electric vehicles may rise to 220 million by 2030. This does not include 2 and 3-wheelers and commercial vehicles.

The rapidly growing popularity of electric vehicles is one of the four key forces reshaping the energy markets globally. The others being renewables, storage technologies, and the smart electric grids.

The PM’s directive is timely and desirable. However, we must tread carefully on this road to reap the full benefits of electric mobility and avoid the pitfalls that a policy formulated and put into action in haste always carries. Some suggestions are offered below to ease our country’s transition in this field.

The PM’s initiative looks similar, at least in name, to the Electric Vehicle 30@30 Initiative launched by the IEA in 2017. It is a policy forum to accelerate electric vehicles uptake worldwide, with a target of 30 per cent new electric vehicles sales by 2030. It currently has 11 member countries (including China and India) and 29 supporting companies and organisations.

It is critical that any policy to promote electric vehicles is not pursued in isolation, but as a part of a holistic national policy

The first thing our government should do is to try and join the IEA initiative. This would give credibility to the government’s initiative and demonstrate to the world and local stakeholders its seriousness in pursuing this initiative.

The membership would enable our experts to join hands with experts in other countries on policy, technology, and business ventures; giving them a first-hand experience in the know-how and technology, access to relevant tools and databases, and insights into their experience.

Second, the Ministry of Climate Change should join into a research collaboration with some strong academic institution in the country to study all facets of this initiative. This would enable the government and others to make informed decisions about any aspect of this initiative, instead of acting merely on speculation.

The prices of electric vehicles have gone down constantly, but are still much higher than regular cars, mainly due to the batteries needed to provide owners with a reasonable driving range. Despite these trends, it may be a decade before electric vehicles reach price parity with regular cars.

The third step should be to devise an incentive scheme for customers to ease their buying of electric vehicles. This could be a scheme providing a one-time tax-credit or rebates in annual registration fees, or both until price parity is reached.

Unlike conventional vehicles for which a refuelling and support network is in place virtually all over the country, such a network, especially charging facilities, for electric vehicles will be built from scratch. This will require time and effort to offer owners a service comparable with the quick refuel convenience of regular vehicles.

The fourth step would be to build a charging infrastructure. Many alternatives are available like private versus public charging stations, slow versus fast charging equipment, and battery swaps, each with its own benefits and costs. The important point is to carefully assess the costs and benefits of each option and facilitate the development of the most suitable one by devising a set of appropriate policy initiatives.

The government must bear in mind that owing to the high demand of electric vehicles worldwide, it would be competing with many other countries in the international market, especially for materials used in battery-packs with a focus on lithium-ion batteries, expected to remain the mainstay of electric vehicles in the next decade. These are in short supply already and have seen large price hikes recently.

The fifth step would be to plan for such constraints and promote a research and development programme to seek alternative battery technologies that use local materials. With the large share of electric vehicles, another serious issue would be the disposal of battery-packs that have run their course. It is not too early to start planning for this issue.

Electric vehicle is a relatively simple technology. In large numbers, these would arguably lead to new businesses and jobs for some, but would also risk driving out of jobs those whose livelihood depends on the supply and servicing of conventional vehicles.

The sixth issue would be the human cost of inducting electric vehicles in large numbers and to mitigate it. A plan would be required to provide new skills while generating alternative jobs and businesses for those who lose theirs to the initiative.

Being a major driving force in the global market, the initiative is timely and a welcome step. However, we would have to move carefully on this road to reap the full benefits that electric mobility holds and to avoid any negative consequences.

The writer is a freelance consultant in sustainable energy system planning and development