Daily Times

For several decades, Pakistan did not have formal defence relations with Russia, except for the helicopter deal of 1969. However, the 21st century witnessed an improvement in defence collaboration in the wake of a visit to Pakistan by former Russian Military Chief Col-Gen Alexander Postnikov in 2011 and the reciprocal visits to Moscow by former Air Chief Marshal Tahir Rafiq Butt in August 2012, subsequently by the former chief of army staff, Gen Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, in October 2012. These visits prepared the ground for future defence cooperation between two the countries, especially when Alexander Postnikov, floated the possibility of expanding defence ties by holding joint military drills, exchanging trainees and trainers and selling and buying weapons. Pakistan-Russia defence ventures were later founded in these three directions. In line with this approach, for the very first time in April 2013, Commander of the Russian Air Force Viktor Bondarev visited Islamabad to discuss military deals.

Major progress in defence relations was observed when Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu visited Islamabad to conclude a Defence Cooperation Agreement in 2014. Consequently, when Moscow decided to lift its arms embargo against Pakistan in the same year, Pakistan-Russia defence cooperation began in earnest with an agreement for the sale of Mi-35 gunship helicopters to replace part of Pakistan’s aging helicopter fleet. In the following phase, four Russian Mi-35 Hind-E attack helicopters were delivered to Pakistan on August 29, 2017. Islamabad has already shown interest in buying 20 more of such helicopters.

Joint military drills are another feature of mutual interest. In 2014 and 2015, Arabian Monsoon naval drills were held jointly by forces of the two counties. To reinforce their defence ties in view of the growing regional security challenges involving extremism, terrorism, human trafficking, and narcotics smuggling, Pakistan and Russia held joint military exercises in 2016 and 2017. In 2017, the multinational joint Naval AMAN exercise was held in Karachi by both states, including naval forces of 35 countries. Russian Navy’s largest anti-submarine warfare ship Severmorsk also participated, substantiating the converging inclination.

The Friendship-2017 military exercises were held on a mountain training range near Nizhny Arkhyz settlement in the Republic of Karachay-Cherkessia in September 2017. More than 70 Pakistani mountaineers and over 100 soldiers of the Russian mountain infantry division of the Southern Military District took part. The two countries agreed to establish a joint military commission during former foreign minister Khwaja Asif’s visit to Moscow in February 2018.

During former foreign minister Khwaja Asif’s visit to Moscow in February 2018, Pakistan and Russia agreed to establish a joint military commission

The limited defence ties between the two countries today may turn into broader defence cooperation in the future. Recently, Russian diplomat Pavel Didkovsky indicated Moscow’s support for a criterion-based approach for the new members of the Nuclear Suppliers Group that have not signed the Non-Proliferation Treaty. This validated Islamabad’s stance in applying for the NSG membership.

The rationale behind Pakistan’s quest to enhance its defence capability is to maintain a strategic equilibrium against India’s massive military build-up, which is making South Asian strategic environment more fragile, particularly under the Joint Doctrine of Indian Forces adopted in 2017. It looks that the test of Agni V by India in terms of pursuing this doctrine, which has upset the Eurasia-Pacific strategic equilibrium.

The US and India have signed the Indo-US bilateral Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement in 2016. The memo calls India America’s crucial defence partner. This may spoil the Russian vision of a multi-polar Eurasian integration, while creating more regional insecurity that will ultimately lead little economic integration among the regional states. In that case, Moscow could possibly be encouraged to maintain balance against such anti-integration forces by moving towards Islamabad.

The objective of Moscow’s grand strategic vision of Eurasian Economic Union is primarily regional integration in the Eurasian continent. New Delhi’s grand strategic aim of becoming a major power at the cost of regional security seems to be a worrisome element in disturbing the delicate strategic balance in South Asia and the strategic equilibrium in the Eurasia-Pacific region with the US blessing. This may create space for prospective strategic cooperation between Pakistan and Russia for maintaining the regional stability. Both states are already working under the Joint Working Group on Strategic Stability.

These efforts seem be working to transform Moscow’s strategic perception of Islamabad’s expected role in the Central and South Asian region. Reasonably, it would be in Moscow’s interests to stabilize the strategic imbalance in South Asia by expanding defence cooperation with Islamabad, which would eventually contribute to maintaining a greater strategic equilibrium in the Eurasia-Pacific region.

Counter-terrorism is another area that offers a lot of scope. Islamabad and Moscow can enhance their cooperation to counters the emerging threat of radicalization. The establishment of Bilateral Joint Working Group on Counter-Terrorism for regional security and a joint counter-terrorism exercise, Druzhbha, are examples, of generating prospects of learning from each another’s experiences, skills, and knowledge.

The writer is research officer at the Islamabad Policy Research Institute