Daily Times

A few days ago, India’s External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj in a meeting with President Ghani’s Special envoy expressed her country’s support to all efforts for Afghan peace including the Afghan peace process. The statement shows a lot regarding India’s changing policy towards Afghanistan.

In the past, New Dehli has always opposed any idea of supporting peace talks with the Taliban as the country didn’t consider the group a legitimate political stakeholder in Afghanistan. However, that position may have changed over the past couple of years due to the Taliban’s growing political and military clout in the country. Moreover, with the U.S., India’s key ally, changing its position from casting the Taliban a militant group to a legitimate political stakeholder, New Dehli has also realized that the Taliban is key to the Afghan peace process and the country’s political future.

Clearly, the Taliban’s bolstered position concerning the peace process is indicative of the group’s overall view regarding their political future in Afghanistan. Arguably, the only way to prevent the Taliban’s complete takeover is by permanently keeping the U.S. troops in Afghanistan. However, Washington’s announcement to leave Afghanistan and frustration over how the peace talks have unfolded only heightened Taliban’s commitments to fight till the end.

Regardless of India’s established position on opposing dialogue with the Taliban, New Dehli cannot deny that the group [Taliban] has emerged as a real political stakeholder in Afghanistan. Arguably, there is a growing realization in India that mending ties with the Taliban can be a better approach rather than opposing the group. There have already been statements from the Indian military, emphasizing that New Dehli needs to establish a relationship with the Taliban. Recently, Tehran informed New Dehli that the former was ready to mediate between the Afghan Taliban and India if required.

In April, Pakistan skipped the US-Taliban talks in Doha which indicates Islamabad’s growing reluctance when it comes to becoming a party to ‘terms’ which cannot work in Afghanistan

New Dehli’s endorsement of the Afghan peace process indirectly means that the country also endorses the Taliban as a legitimate stakeholder in Afghanistan. While it’s too early to say how India’s position on the Taliban will play out in Afghanistan, New Dehli should be expected to lose more space in the country as soon as the American forces withdraw from the country. A lot will become clear in the coming months concerning New Dehli position on Afghanistan. However, it’s not going to be easy when it comes to India’s effort to reach out to the Taliban to begin the normalization of ties.

On the other hand, India and the US’s position of giving dialogue a chance in Afghanistan validate Pakistan position on the issue. For more than a decade, Pakistan, in the face of mounting international pressure, has maintained that dialogue with the Taliban is the only feasible way forward when it comes to the question of Afghanistan’s peaceful future. In the past, India lobbied with the US to put pressure on Pakistan to deteriorate its ties with Taliban. On other occasions, Pakistan’s policy which has now been endorsed by Washington and New Dehli, was targeted by both states as duplicitous and aimed to under the regional security. The same policy which was once targeted is now being pitched by all regional states, including India, to secure peace in Afghanistan and beyond. That said, New Dehli should be expected to face opposition from Islamabad if the former continued to launch attacks against Pakistan’s economic and diplomatic interests globally.

However, it’s unlikely that the Taliban are going to appreciate or offer a warm welcome to any of India’s rapprochement. The Taliban do note differentiate between the U.S. and India’s policy: New Dehli has always supported the US selected government in Afghanistan and changed policy whenever Washington changed its position in the country. For the Taliban, India’s position in Afghanistan is nothing more than of a client state which is on the verge of collapse as it’s master state nears implosion. Concerning the peace process, it’s unlikely that the Taliban are going to give in to any of the U.S. demands – that are also of India’s demands -if it doesn’t suit the group’s institutional interests.

In the context of these changing dynamics, its better for Pakistan to not actively participate in the peace process when it comes to dictating any terms of the dialogue. In April, Pakistan skipped the US-Taliban talks in Doha which indicates Islamabad’s growing reluctance when it comes to becoming a party to ‘terms’ which cannot work in Afghanistan. Both the US and Taliban continue to accuse each other for undermining the Afghan peace process. In this growling environment, Pakistan has done more than enough when it comes to setting up the ground for dialogue.

In this entire scenario, Pakistan should look further than revamping its border security with Afghanistan. While the looming insecurity in Afghanistan may create a challenge for Pakistan along the Durand Line, Islamabad should not be expected to give easy passage to New Dehli after facing decades of opposition.

The writer is a freelance journalist