Daily Times

The electoral battle for world’s largest democracy is over with Narendra Modi making a visit to Kedarnath, a visit that eventually marked the end of this mega fight for India’s future. One could say that it was a presidential type of election. It was a “fight in which Modi was testifying to his personal stature rather than the plethora of opposite regimes”. The reasons for his re-emergence are many, and he has once again established himself as an undisputed force in present times.

His peculiar persona:

Narendra Modi is not a dynast, while most national and regional leaders come from political families. His long career spans from Gujarat to New Delhi. He exploits the sense of hostility that runs high in people against dynasts. His oratory skills coupled with his passion to convey emotions and his message to people works well for him. His outfits are also admired.

Integral harmony within the party:

Although many may argue, the entire Lok Sabha tally of the BJP have shown a great deal of discipline during the five years of Modi’s rule; not many Lok Sabha members or a cabinet member have shown resentment against Modi. The entire BJP cadre is loyal to the party and the prime ministerial candidate. They support every idea that Modi endorses, and convey it to the public with deference.

Organisational skills of Amit Shah:

Many describe him as an election-winning machine. Amit Shah has a strong integrative and inclusive ability to forge election strategies. He has a remarkable ability to engage regional parties in a fruitful dialogue to ensure their support.

Balakot airstrikes:

Balakot airstrikes, for sure, have been an effective vote-pulling tactic in these elections. The strikes changed the concept of national security in India. Modi saw an opportunity to benefit from the Pulwama attack, and he fully utilised it. As elections were approaching, the narrative was changed from jobs, GST, demonetisation and farmers’ distress to national security. The Pulwama attack evoked hyper-nationalism. The entire nation was in a revenge mood, and it came as a boost for Modi. Modi utilised the opportunity to satisfy the collective conscience of the majority of the population. People were anguished, as CRPF jawans were blown by a Fedayeen attack; they demanded a befitting response to militants said to be hiding in Pakistan.

Balakot airstrikes, for sure, proved an effective vote-getting tactic in these elections. The strikes changed the concept of national security in India

Fragile Congress:

For Congress, it was more about survival than a fight. Congress was trying to regain its lost glory. Although Rahul Gandhi evolved as a national opponent due to his more inclusive approach and renewed zeal, he couldn’t set the tone for a strong fight. He seemed strong with his development agenda, and he contested the Modi ideology on a spectrum of issues, from demonetisation, GST, farmers’ distress, the Rafael deal to unemployment. The slogan ‘Chowkidar Chor Hai’ didn’t gain traction all over the country, and its popularity was restricted to Congress supporters. The Nyay scheme didn’t have many takers. Congress seemed unable to properly analyse the sentiments of the general public.

Dissociative opposition:

The opposition forces didn’t work coherently, and clear fragmentation was evident on the ground. Congress couldn’t forge an alliance with the Aam Aadmi Party in New Delhi; Mamta Banerjee was alone in West Bengal. That paved the way for the BJP to deepen its roots in the state with 42 Lok Sabha seats. The opposition forces couldn’t stop the BJP in the crucial state of the Uttar Pradesh; although the SP and the BSP stitched their pre-poll alliance leaving no room for Congress to join the amalgam. The opposition also couldn’t come up with a strong prime ministerial candidate.

Religion card:

The BJP exploited the religious sentiment, as Hindus are in majority in India. Religious extremism forms the core of the BJP appeals to popular emotions. The obsession to build the Ram Temple at Ayodhya gives BJP an overwhelming edge over other parties.

Muscular approach on Kashmir:

If elections had been fought on the development agenda alone, there was not much chance for the BJP getting another chance to rule India. But elections in India were centred on Kashmir, Pakistan and Article 370. It is a fact that the party that inflicts damage on Pakistan and punishes Pakistan sympathisers in Kashmir is considered the best for governance in India. The way the BJP unleashed a muscular policy on Kashmir prior to the elections appealed to Hindus in India. From summoning Hurriyat leaders to banning Jamaat-i-Islamiya, the BJP catered to the majority of India.

The exit polls are predicting an absolute majority for the BJP and its allies. Exit polls have been generally accurate in India since 2014; most of them have clearly shown a decisive mandate for the BJP. If the exit polls are accurate again, the BJP will rule India for the next five years. There are many challenges for the BJP, and the economic challenge is a major one. If the BJP manages to improve the GDP and resolve the job crisis, it will cement its position in Indian politics.

The writer is an organising member of the Kashmir Law Circle. He can be reached at tawfeeqirshad@gmail.com