Daily Times

In the wake of the terror attack on the PC Hotel in Gwadar, the Chinese media and commercial circles seem concerned regarding the state of security in Balochistan which is witnessing the firth wave of Baloch insurgency. Though the Chinese government and the state media showed restraint in terms of adherence to bilateral cordiality and consolidation of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), certain social and corporate community did raise eyebrows over this second attack within short period near the Gwadar Port- which has, over the years, cataracted huge Chinese investment, workforce and policy attention. The other day, a report on the said incident by South China Morning Post- in which this author was quoted- reflected the growing strategic and commercial concerns of the Chinese companies. Indeed, the underlying assertion pertained to the idea of the involvement of Chinese military in terms of security and governance of the CPEC (projects). This author, since the formal launch of CPEC in 2015, has conceptually and empirically argued against the (in)formal invitation and/or intervention of any foreign military or related organization(s) in the affairs of the state of Pakistan. Such a move will not only compromise state sovereignty in unimaginable terms but would also destabilize Pakistan ethnically, culturally and economically. However, the Chinese companies and strategic elite’s concerns about security in Pakistan need a proper empirically care. The following, thus, tends to address the commonly posed questions in the media, corporate and (semi) official circles: Are the Chinese companies and workforce working on CPEC) really threatened in Pakistan which is termed friendly by their government? How is the general security situation in Pakistan and in what ways can it impact CPEC and the BRI in particular and the China-Pakistan relations, in general?

To begin with, China-Pakistan relations have, over the decades, achieved ‘a factor of durability’ What this means in strategic and military term is that both the countries amicably resolved potential areas of conflict generation i.e. broader management, and, importantly, consolidated bilateral relations since the mid-1960s. Consequently, since 2015, China-Pakistan relations have taken a new turn where geoeconomics is predicated on geopolitics in terms of formalization of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor that has by now attracted more than60 billion dollars economic engagement. With unprecedented advancement in bilateral economic relations, the two countries have started witnessing enhancement in people-to-people contact, industrial and institutional exchanges. For instance, more than 28,000Pakistani students are enrolled at Chinese colleges and universities and the number is increasing exponentially. Moreover, inter-universities liaison is getting prioritized. In addition, quite a number of Pakistani universities and research institutes have signed the Memorandums of Understanding (MoU) with their Chinese counterparts. Similarly, the number of Pakistani merchants and traders, who visit China frequently, is going up. In the same way, the number of Chinese nationals, majority of whom works on CPEC related projects, witnessed unprecedented growth. A considerable section of the Chinese workforce is engaged in Gwadar where major projects in infrastructure and energy are underway. The Pakistani authorities, being aware of restive security situation particularly in Balochistan and generally in rest of the country, establish a security regime to safeguard the Chinese manpower from mostly internal threats.

Given the scale of China-Pakistan relations and the level of engagement vis-à-vis CPEC, the sides ought to be able to deal with any irritant wisely and meaningfully for economic growth and development in Pakistan is the key to realize regional peace and prosperity

Though two Chinese nationals were killed by their kidnapers in Balochistan in 2017, one got killed in Karachi in 2018 and one in Islamabad this year?which the Pakistani government is probing as per law? the overall safely of the working Chinese have been duly ensured by the government of Pakistan. Importantly, the abovementioned cases, reportedly, were not related to CPEC but social and economic dealings.

Moreover, lately there have been reports of some Chinese nationals having been involved in financial theft, i.e. ATM skimming fraud in Karachi and Islamabad-whose cases are being invested by the country’s law enforcement; some are also held up by the FIA on account of their reported involvement in ‘human trafficking’. The Chinese and Pakistani authorities seem to be on the same page on the social issue of the so called ‘Chinese marriages’ with Pakistani women who mostly hail from socioeconomically marginalized communities, both Muslims and non-Muslims.

Nevertheless, the Chinese, residing and/or working in Pakistan, have, overall, demonstrated goodwill and good conduct. At the moment, majority of Pakistani perceive them friendly from a friendly country. Nevertheless, given the state of security situation in parts of Pakistan post 9/11, public safely remains a big challenge for the state of Pakistan which losses its police and military men to terrorism on almost a regular basis though with reduction in number of terror attacks.

In order to improve the collective security within its territory, Pakistani authorities would have to tackle this monster of terrorism on multiple levels. Strategically, the country needs to engage with its neighbors meaningfully. Here, China can play a role by encouraging regional cooperation and peace. Indeed, the trilateral Afghan peace process is a step in the right direction. Moreover, China-Iran-Pakistan trilateral engagement carries the potential to devise a collective response to anti-peace elements in the South Asian region. Importantly, China may also convince India in a manner that reduces strategic uncertainty.

Politically, Pakistani government should strive to negotiate with the locally active extremist and insurgent groups. Ideologically, there is a growing need to conceive and implement a pluralist narrative to ideationally counter the hate mongers in our society. Above all, China and Pakistan would have to play a central role by reinforcing the importance of peace and stability locally, nationally and (trans) regionally. The former must understand the precarious security situation Pakistan is facing where it lost more than 30,000 thousand civilians and security personnel in the past seventeen years. The latter must revisit its policies that might have provided an enabling environment to anti-humanity forces. The latter though have been militarily neutralized by the law enforcement institutions of Pakistan, certain militant and separatist organizations such as Jamat-ul-Ahrar (JA) and the BRA still poses a challenge. The JA may activate its sleeping cells in major urban areas of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), Karachi and Quetta. The JA and similar organizations are always in search of soft targets to pressure Pakistani state and the society.

Lastly, the civil and military law enforcing institutions are staying vigilant to protect the Chinese workforce and logistics in the country. The Chinese (CPEC) workers and non-CPEC citizens in general should also refrain from unnecessary commuting and interfering in social life of the natives. Importantly, the CPEC labor and executives need to cooperate with the Pakistani authorities with respect to security related rules and regulations- which are formulated for their safety. Lastly, given the scale of China-Pakistan relations and the level of engagement vis-à-vis CPEC, the sides ought to be able to deal with any irritant wisely and meaningfully for economic growth and development in Pakistan is the key to realize regional peace and prosperity.

The writer is a political and military analyst with a PhD from Heidelberg and postdoc from Berkeley. He is DAAD, FDDI and Fulbright fellow