Daily Times

The denouement of Indo-Pak war drama has featured an aerial skirmish and a litany of claims and counter claims claiming one upmanship in a deadly game of nuclear brinkmanship. India presently is nursing a wounded ego after downing of its two aircrafts, one of those being the much vaunted SU 30. The humiliation of Wing Commander Abhi Nandan’s capture and Pakistani magnanimity in returning him to Indians does rankle painfully with Indian sensibilities heavily inebriated on a dose of Indian invincibility. According to neutral observers the Indians ratcheted up the recent tensions to improve the electoral prospects of Modi led BJP. The gambit failed however due to resolute response by Pakistan. As a bigger and stronger protagonist in the sub continental conflict equation India stands to gain in a protracted conventional conflict. The trouble however lies in Pakistani nuclear deterrence.

The Pakistani triad of nuclear capability puts paid to Indian conventional war capability. After Kargil, Indians in a spasmodic display of war paroxysms have tried to flex their conventional muscle but of no avail. Starting from 2001 they have tried their best to discover the lost space for conventional war to make a political statement through the barrel of the gun. The space however has been most ably curtailed by Pakistanis through a reorientation of their defensive manoeuvre to respond with celerity, leveraging better technological and intelligence means, for early warning of Indian response. The curtailed space lies between Indian border and Pakistani nuclear thresholds. The million dollar question for Indian war planners however is that what objectives would be achieved in that increasingly cramped space. Pakistan has cramped that space through its forward defensive posture, pre-emptive attack contingencies, and early employment of reserves.

Nuclear strategists have talked of 44 rung nuclear escalation ladder starting with posturing and ending in a suicidal spasm of mutual destruction. One of the rungs is the nuclear shot across the bow i.e an attack away from the intended target to demonstrate own ability to attack. India and Pakistan surprisingly have resorted to that shot across the bow but on conventional plane. Interestingly both the countries seemingly have understood the intertwined nature of conventional and nuclear conflict. The manifestation of that understanding was the Indian innocuous attack on an uninhabited forest n Balakot and Pakistani response across LOC in near vicinity of Indian bunkers carefully ensuring no casualties. Both countries were apparently trying to avoid escalation of the conflict that was fraught with the chances of an escalation to the nuclear level.

It was the first instance of its kind in the world’s history wherein conventional attacks across the bow were conducted. The Indians lost two aircrafts when in a foolhardy quest to score some points the Indian Mig 21 bisons dared cross the LOC. The result was a nose bleed through Pakistani air mounted BVR weaponry. PAF proved superior to a rusty and vainglorious Indian war chariot tilting at the proverbial windmills with the quixotic zeal of a soused carrion eater. The Pakistani return of Indian pilot was a chivalrous gesture supplemented by repeated offers of peace talks. Not so for the Indian media and the government that had whipped the entire nation in war hysteria through a narrative of Pakistani meddling in Indian affairs. Indians instead of seeing the untenability of an unwinnable war still kept their population hostage to a negative propaganda, only to promote the electoral prospects Prime Minister Modi.

The battles for human security include quest for clean drinking water, functioning healthcare system, high quality education, cheap public transport, and a level playing field for public entrepreneurship. That all kindred Asian political souls have piggybacked on authoritarian and collectivist political systems through equity, justice, and discipline to reach the present state of development is a warning sign for Indo-Pak democratic dispensations

India has failed the subcontinent badly. The poverty, under development, and lack of commerce can be laid squarely at the door of India. As a colossus dominating the sub continental politico-economic landscape it had to show greater tolerance and magnanimity towards smaller and insecure neighbours. What the Indians have displayed instead is a petty fogging animus vis a vis smaller neighbours, condemning the region to a perpetual conflict. The spending on defence by both the countries has resulted in converting both into national security states, where security trumps the development. Two thirds of the Indian population lives in poverty with 68.8% living on $1.25 per day. Over 30% even have less than $1.25 per head. 76% of Indian population defecates in open while 163 million do not have access to clean drinking water. Isn’t that laughable for a country having global pretensions?

Pakistani state of development is no better either due to a host of factors, the heavy defence spending being one of those. Due to a fear psychosis the country has developed into a national security state instead of a development state. When the security relegates development to second position in national priorities the development lags behind. There are battles asking to be fought and won on human security front by both the countries. In Pakistan the elite capture of the resources and a dysfunctional governance has resulted in poor human development indices. The way our water resources are being depleted and the air quality poisoned, the country faces a real threat of an environmental disaster. What the rich and the powerful of the country need to understand is that the public goods like air quality and water are non- fungible. The rich might buy the comforts of a gated community keeping away the hordes of the poor and dispossessed away from their abodes but would not be able to keep the polluted air and contaminated water away.

Unless we understand the battles to be fought our quest for a peaceful existence would remain elusive. There is no peace nowadays without a well fed, educated and healthy population enjoying the national resource pie with equity and justice. If the present Westminster polity fails to effect necessary reforms for the public benefit there would be no option other than a revolution or an authoritarian intervention. The fountainhead of all justice being the judiciary, its reforms assume top priority. The present public criticism on some of the judicial decisions is a part of a wider public dissatisfaction with the justice system which appears to be configured for the benefit of the rich and the powerful. The judicial reforms should be the top priority of the government. If the powerful lobbies that benefit by the present system put obstacles in the path of judicial reforms, to make justice cheap and quick for the common people, the fear of a public upheaval looms real large on national horizon.

The battles for human security include quest for clean drinking water, functioning healthcare system, high quality education, cheap public transport, and a level playing field for public entrepreneurship. That all kindred Asian political souls have piggybacked on authoritarian and collectivist political systems through equity, justice, and discipline to reach the present state of development is a warning sign for Indo-Pak democratic dispensations. Both India and Pakistan must avoid the Thucydides’ trap where in case of war both nations lose and millions die, in favour of peace and development.

The writer is a PhD scholar at NUST