Daily Times

The state of South Asian affairs changed rapidly after the Pulwama incident. Indian jets violated Pakistani air space and Pakistan retaliated. The swift counterstrike, meant to demonstrate the capabilities and readiness of its armed forces, was followed by the release of a captured Indian pilot.

In India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Baharatya Janata Party, engaged in an intense election campaign, now faces the additional challenge of justifying the escalation.

In the international arena, the ball remains in India’s court. Following swift moves, military and diplomatic, by Pakistan, it has to choose between escalating and de-escalating the situation.

A consideration of how the choice might affect the BJP’s ability to get re-elected may be a significant factor in the decision. Pakistan has shown the will to precent an escalation. Even as the chances of an escalation appear meagre, it cannot be ruled out given the war hysteria in evidence.

An escalation would also impact the situation in the neighbouring Afghanistan. The challenge for the Indian government therefore is to preserve regional peace as well as do well domestically. New Delhi is unlikely to seek an escalation in the short term although pressure is mounting for it after US officials chose to contradict the Indian Air Force assessment that it had shot down an F-16 aircraft.

The government leaders in India should pay attention to winning the hearts and minds of people by addressing the root cause of the current standoff. If it wants another term of office, the BJP must alleviate the sufferings of Kashmiris. The war hysteria witnessed over the past few weeks should be a cause for concern. The general public should be told that a war is not in India’s interest

Speaking at an International Workshop on Defence, Deterrence and Stability in South Asia in December 2017, Mr Rahul Roy-Chaudary of the Indian Institute of Strategic Studies had predicted that a security related incident in India or Kashmir would be the key issue in the next 20 months. This came to pass in February 2019 when the world was at the verge of a nuclear catastrophe.

Had Pakistan not been able to act swiftly and decisively, the Pulwama incident might have been instrumental to augment the BJP’s “state sponsor of terrorism” rhetoric. Also, an unanswered intrusion would have allowed Modi to claim a leap forward in the direction of attaining superpower stature.

Most India experts in Islamabad believe that given the forthcoming parliamentary elections a quick de-escalation would be too difficult for Prime Minister Modi. The advice for the government was to focus on deterrence. Questions were also raised about the US role.

While US might be interested in seeing India seeking a regional super power status, particularly since it is seen as a counter-balance to China, a further escalation in the region can jeopardize the peace process in Afghanistan. Russia, which currently enjoys good terms with both Pakistan and India, has offered mediation. Countries like China and Saudi Arabia, which have economic stakes in both India and Pakistan, would likely not want the situation to escalate.

Indian Foreign Minister, Sushma Swaraj has reiterated that India wants to avoid “further escalation of the situation and will “continue to act with responsibility and restraint”.

The Indian government, it seems, should focus on winning the hearts and minds of the people by addressing the root cause of the current standoff. It should alleviate sufferings of Kashmiris to allow the BJP to get another term. The general public should be talked out of its war hysteria and explained that a war is not in India’s favour.

Irrespective of who leads the government following the general elections, the Indian quest for a regional super power status will likely force a ‘retaliatory’ strike in the medium to long run. Pakistan should meanwhile focus on a rigorous implementation of its National Action Plan. Islamabad must also manifest its Full Spectrum Deterrence strategy.

The writer has an MPhil degree in international relations and is a research associate at the Strategic Studies Institute, Islamabad (SSII)