Daily Times

The real McCoy in case of Pakistan is the leader at the helm of the affairs who is steering the ship of the state through the choppy waters with the dexterity of a helmsman havingan eerie resemblance with the Cuban fisherman up against a giant merlin in the sea in Hemingway’s classic i.e “Old Man and the Sea”. Imran might not be that old but the fish is way too stronger compared to Hemingway’s catch. Constantly sliding economy, Indian war dance, restive Afghan border, CPEC blues, external powers’ rivalry and an un severed linkage between crime and politics stare back at great Khan like the proverbial abyss that stares back at you when you stare too long into it. In such a murky scenario instead of chasing too many targets the leader needs to be selective and pragmatic.

The stygian darkness of the fetid dark recesses of corruption and mis- governance that has rent apart the socio-political fabric of the country refuses to be brightened by placebos and nostrums that the current leadership offers. The need for a cool and pragmatic analysis of the ground realities is de rigueur for a government short on experience and big on promises. Like the feminine pulchritude compensating for cerebral substance in showbiz the optics of populism were expected to compensate hard slog of planning and execution for PTI. That unfortunately has not happened and the reality has started biting. Is this the classic case of a good man being beaten by a bad system?

Imran being a good man with his heart in the right place is caught in the web of bureaucratic tricks, party activists’ petty interests, political opposition’s intrigues, and elite interests that refuse to be part of a socio-economic revolution on the radar of the prime minister. A country still in the throes of an armed insurrection aided and abetted by RAW and other external actors relies on the military support for maintaining law and order as well as executing any major development initiative. The creeping shadow of over militarized governance is earning the government undeserved political criticism of being too beholden to military establishment. How to chart a course for meaningful reforms and service delivery on governance front out of these choppy waters?

The silver lining on the horizon is the civil-military relations that appear to be on an even keel now after decades of discord. The PTI government however must avoid the pitfall of sacrificing civilian control and oversight of national security and foreign policies in return for the military support

For a good man to beat a bad system the man has to rise above the party politics and petty interests of niche players. He should be wary of those out to extract their pound of flesh in the prevalent system of spoils perpetuated through extractive institutions by an avaricious elite. He must know that the real McCoy has to stand up and be counted. There is a solid batting line up comprising stodgy sheet anchors exploiting conditions suited to their batting through tailor made dead wickets. He cannot achieve the above through a bowling attack relying on reputations alone. Pakistani governance system needs fundamental changes and the road map for those changes should have been put out for public consumption by now. Till the time the system changes, a pragmatic strategy needs to be adopted working within and around the imperfections of our legal, administrative, and corporate system. Raising prices of oil and gas and depreciating rupee vis a vis dollar without commensurate benefits is frustrating the common people.

There is an urgent need to get hold of balance of payment and fiscal imbalances that are burrowing deep into the foundations of national growth and development giving rise to runaway inflation. The policy of managed float of exchange rate needs to be tailored to the current ground realities ensuring inflation control and price stability. A growth rate projection of 3.5-4% does not promise to absorb the 80 million or so of our under 30 years’ population into the job market. The failure to broaden the tax net and reformation of FBR has resulted in government’s reliance on indirect taxation and rising fuel prices every two months. The concomitant tsunami of price hike after fuel prices rise hurts poor and middle classes alike, eroding the incomes and upsetting the household budgets. An anachronistic and corruption ridden FBR structure is in urgent need of reformation.

Writers and economists like Ikram ul Haq, Ashfaq Hasan, and Hafeez Pashahave been mooting ideas for tax and economic reforms in a spate of articles. The gist of their discourse is the complete rehash of the taxation system in order to make tax collection attractive and easy for the masses. The antiquated and complex tax system comprising 70 types of taxes being collected by 37 agencies manages to collect just 0.5% of the taxes from services sector that constitutes 56% of the GDP. A fixed slab of 2.5% of income tax by all through simplified system of tax filing without the blackmailing presence of tax bureaucracy is the main thrust of their prescription. Low tax slabs with ease of filing tax returns would broaden the tax net and reduce the current tax gap of 10% of the GDP significantly.

The PSDP fund spending that has declined due to current straitened economic circumstances is hurting people the most. The government while going to IMF must balance its stabilization imperatives vis a vis supply side economics engendering growth and development for the benefit of people. Pakistan’s development spending cannot wait for the stabilization recipe of IMF due to our peculiar realities. These realities include a galloping population growth of 2.5%, over one lakh vehicles being added to roads every year, dwindling water resources, and 3.7 million unemployed persons. The result of low PSDP spending is choked urban infrastructure due to traffic jams, wastage of fuel, environmental degradation, and water scarcity. The PTI government urgently needs to start the infrastructure projects in major urban centers despite the resource crunch to generate economic activity that lies moribund after change of government.

Control of rising fuel prices, curbing of indirect taxation, and affordable power supply in the long hot summer ahead would test the mettle of PTI government. The bureaucracy needs to be depoliticized and empowered to take quick decisions. The NAB laws should be suitably amended to ensure a fear free climate for all government functionaries. The populist schemes like low cost housing without due diligence should be put on hold till fiscal space improves. The present economic health of the country does not permit risky schemes regardless of their popular appeal which should be parked till better times. The economy has to be taken out of the emergency ward before fulfilling election campaign promises.

The silver lining on the horizon is the civil-military relations that appear to be on an even keel now after decades of discord. The PTI government however must avoid the pitfall of sacrificing civilian control and oversight of national security and foreign policies in return for the military support. A meaningful civilian oversight through well- resourced institutions like National Security Secretariat, a strong Ministry of Defence, and members of parliament well versed in national security matters is absolutely essential to avoid the over militarization of national policies. The real McCoy needs to lead through the front instead of being led by the forces of status quo.

(The writer is a PhD scholar at NUST:email rwjanj@hotmail.com)