Daily Times

In a recent interview with a Russian state-owned news agency, DG ISPR Major General Asif Ghafoor stated that Pakistan’s nuclear weapons are meant for deterrence purposes to prevent military escalation with India. In his opinion, they have essentially eliminated the possibility of conventional warfare and are used as a political tool. Regarding the prospects of a nuclear-free South Asia, the spokesperson believed that Pakistan could pursue a strategy for nuclear non-proliferation on the condition that India does the same.

These views should be welcomed with a cautious approach since recent events along the eastern border have shown that even nuclear-armed states can fight a limited conventional conflict.

Low-intensity conflicts comprise of intelligence gathering, elements of surprise and usage of conventional arms. Such kind of warfare is manageable as witnessed in the past during the Kargil War since the level of conflict threshold is minimal.

Indeed, Henry Kissinger’s MAD theory is the key reason for nuclear deterrence to sustain over the decades. The US and the former Soviet Union fought an indirect proxy warfare during the Cold War period in which regional alliances played a pivotal role.

Ever since acquiring nuclear weapons, Islamabad and New Delhi have conducted warfare on a similar pattern with guerrilla tactics being applied the most. However, the role played by Indian spooks, comprising of a multi-pronged strategy in which economic sabotage, narrative building and cultural warfare were the key components, proved to be quite effective since the 1990s.

This is where Islamabad’s policymakers were held back.

Nevertheless, the situation has improved in recent times with an effective policy adopted by the civil-military setup to counter New Delhi on the international arena. The war of narratives is shifting in Pakistan’s favour-albeit gradually.

On the other hand, Pakistan’s full spectrum deterrence policy under the guidance of the Strategic Plans Division (SPD) has proven quite useful to counter India’s Cold Start Doctrine.

Nevertheless, in terms of giving interviews, it is the government which needs to come out on the front instead of the military spokesperson. Civilians need to have an upper hand when it comes to handling the press since official statements should rather come from Islamabad instead of Rawalpindi. For this purpose, the foreign or defence ministers are best suited since their ministries correlate with each other. *

Published in Daily Times, March 26^th 2019.